The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Good work Tony and the gang.
Do your due diligence and have patience. A year from now, much higher.
The data never lies.
Best
Doc
Good work Tony. Best Doc
News flow is 2H 2021 loaded, ClearWater up rate should be in a few weeks, Noel out performance, oil and gas prices outperforming. Patience pays. Best Doc Jones
This is taking longer to reprice then I thought but fundamentally they are executing. Fcf, production growth, ClearWater development. This is a “when” not “if” story. On a macro front all the data pints to higher and sustainable oil prices. That in itself will ensure a jv of the North Sea. Using their company’s capital allocation model the dividend will grow this year, substantially I think. I speak to investors not traders, so if you are unhappy because your hot money trade is taking too long, can’t help you but if you are an investor, you should feel a hell of a lot better about the future outcome then 3 months ago. It’ll be boring until it’s not. My experience is most of the gain come quickly, a stock can be flat for a year then in a months time go 3-5x. Just because of sentiment changes and/or fundamental changes on a micro/macro level. I’ve introduced management to a North American focused Investor group that specializes in bringing awareness to under-followed fundamentally strong companies. As they head into 2H 2021 a lot of news flow is coming. Best Doc Jones
I don’t understand what all the negativity is for? The dividend yield is 9% now supported by outperforming production and hedges locking in a % of future cashflow. They expanded Clearwater acreage via jv which has some Martin’s Hill drilling locations that are tier 1 in play that ip + 400b/d vs Nisipi +150b/d they are drilling jv first because their historically Clearwater acres are held by production prior production of NG, where as jv terms require drilling to hold it. Oil moving up to 70 $ again ng breaking above $3, inflation running hot, production gains are back end loaded they raised they fcf guidance twice this year, where’s the downside? If you can’t see the simple facts, good luck with any future investments and I mean investments not speculation. In May they’ll file year and give another update. Covid has been a problem still globally that should be remembered as well. Year end based on their fcf guidance they will be net debt free.... where’s the problem? Lol I’ve tucked this away in my dividend portfolio and will revisit after first results at Clearwater. To me I see a new investment as raising a child, they need a lot of attention then as time goes they prove themselves your confidence level rises thus less attention. Just because I’m not here every day doesn’t mean I’m not invested. What it means is I am confident now that i3 will be just fine and I put my attention into my next kid which is currently emerita resources. 2022 will be a year for rapid growth for i3. I’ve sold some of my OTHER oil/gas investments to add my copper zinc lead exposure in my portfolio but i3 is still part of the core 3 that remain in my JR resource portfolio. Best doc
https://twitter.com/drjimjonesceo/status/1388109457981386752?s=21
It’s common when investors get bored to over think things and trade themselves out of winning positions. Nothing has changed. We are all waiting. So far each news release has been positive and best expectations. Have a 18 month time horizon. The stock market is a tool that transfers wealth from the impatient to the patient. I’ll be back when there is actually news and data to crunch. I have other investments with news and data to crunch. Best Doc
Yes they are in a black out until q1 release. As per cfo during our chat
Lol. I’m here, I do have other investments. Look gentleman all the info is there. The Marco keeps improving and i3 is executing as planned. Currently the dividend yield is 7% upside over the next 2 years is tremendous. Investing is about patience and allowing yourself to be bored. I’m not a trader I invest, once they file q1 a rerate will occur. The risk is being out of i3 then in. Nothings changed, this is my largest oil/gas investment on par with fec, gasx .... the hardest thing about investing is being bored, most abandon future gains from emotional. Anyone in i3 should have an 18 month time horizon before evaluating. In that time North Sea jv, Clearwater development, organic production growth from Gains assets, growth in dividend and global recovery in demand while future supply has been constrained.
Remember we are unhedged and growing production through this year. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Jump-As-EIA-Reports-A-Crude-Draw.html
More tailwinds for higher prices long term for oil
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-7-Trillion-Reason-Saudi-Arabia-Is-Cutting-Oil-Production.html
Whereas Saudi Arabia, the region’s largest economy of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) boasts the largest economy and the lowest production costs of any Arab nation, the harsh reality is that the country needs significantly higher oil prices than the current WTI price of $59.50 per barrel to balance its books.
Indeed, Saudi Arabia’s fiscal breakeven price of $76.10 per barrel means that it remains heavily in the red
Oil and gas to lead US energy consumption to 2050, says new forecast
EIA outlook projects oil imports will rise along with domestic production
By Deborah Jaremko on February 4, 2021, 1:30 pm MST https://www.canadianenergycentre.ca/oil-and-gas-to-lead-us-energy-consumption-to-2050-says-new-forecast/
Nice to see these guys buying 2.6 million shares today https://www.echelonpartners.com/.
https://money.tmx.com/en/quote/ITE/trade-history
More interesting oil/gas market data supporting much higher prices than current in 2022.
https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1g6q89g-30BBF81E-86DD-48AC-AFD4-5D5162C96A7E.png
https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1g6q89u-CA343186-F2D4-4878-AB64-C71B3E7B6D31.png
In 3-5 weeks the first ever Q filing will be filed on TSX/AIM as a producer, dividend payer and production growth company. After which, quickly Analyst will crunch numbers and release their price targets. We are beginning this journey from a low production base which means a little capital invested will cause tremendous growth. Considering we only produce 1500-2000 barrels of oil a day, 15-20% of production but 44% of rev, a modest increase in oil production will have an outsized effect on fcf. AS well the infrastructure in place supports a +3x production growth.
1) First ever filling on TSX, what to look for:
(in Canadian $)
- current production profile, fcf forecast and at what product price, current rate of dividend implies 27-41 million in FCF, therefore including cash on balance sheet - 8 million in dividend annually = cash balance of 43-55 million year end, therefore they have a lot of cash to develop and grow, what is the amount slated to grow in 2021. What is the forward production guidance? Hedging update, what %, at what price to protect downside and secure cashflow in the event of another downturn in prices. Launch of new website and updated presentation, detailing each area, reserves mix, drilling locations and economics. Updated NPV, etc...
2)- North Sea update
3)-Clearwater Update, when is the first well
4)- Plan of expansion of area where Noel was successful drilled, Reserves attributed to Noel and offset wells
5) Any bolt on acquisitions for cash, adding production and reserves
6) Plan to put a reserve base leading facility to grow company by buying PDP assets
7) Increase of dividend in q3-q4 as prices and new production comes online
8) Long term in 2023 the debt will mature and be paying off by cash on hand adding 4 million a year to FCF that was servicing debt. That means they could increase dividend 50% by simply transferring those payments to shareholders.
Data Points
Dividend yield = 6%
High-Quality Asset Heavy
High Liquids Production
High-Quality FCF
Low-Cost Producer, low base decline rate
Only JR. with jurisdictional Asset Diversity (Canada and UK)
Leverage to international Brent Oil Market, forecast now targeting Brent at $80 = $5 Billion field level cashflow from Serenity discovery
Current Policy to payout 20-30% of FCF in dividends to shareholders, increasing to 40% over time
Completely unknown to North American investors
NAV of +$700 Million USD, trades at a massive discount to every multiple used to evaluate Oil and Gas Companies in Canada
WCS oil and EDM. SWEET are at/near 7 year highs in Canadian Currency
CLEARWATER, CLEARWATER, CLEARWATER, IRR's over 350% UPSIDE TO OIL DISCOVERY, NORTH SEA, UK already +600 million ooip barrels possible and up to 300 million barrels recoverable, 100 million barrels recoverable discovered already
Announcement of a Reserve Backed Lending Facility to acquire more Producing Assets / Take out the remainder of Term loan / accelerate Clearwater Developm
I think it’s positive that no arb. Exists anymore that hinders price movements.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Goldman-Sachs-Sees-Large-Oil-Demand-Rebound-This-Summer.html
I3 with its 200 million barrel Serenity discovery in 2018, 100 million barrels recoverable at the high end of $30 a barrel to produce each barrel(20-30$ has been floated in past webinars) , that’s $5 billion in field level cashflow at $80 Brent, once a jv is announced for the North Sea this stock will add 100s of million to market cap in the months that follow. This is the only Canadian JR with Brent exposure via North Sea. This is leverage. There is a tipping point coming, after their first ever filing as a Tsx company and a producer and a dividend payer, and a Clearwater developer the investment communities can finally look under the hood and rerate. If they double their production to 20k boe/d they would still have a reserve life index of over a decade. Currently still unhedged, and Brent at 80$ would mean wti at approx 75$, More leverage. There are no reserves booked at Clearwater with a median 100 million barrels there as well. 3-4 weeks and we will know a lot more and finally be able to apply some hard models to fcf and production profile.
imho the most profitable years in the industries history are in front of us.
Forgot the “nt on doesn’t wcs doesn’t move independently from Wti it’s price is the benchmark WTI - CME differential = wcs