Member Info for Drjimjones

Look under Cash Cost

1)Capex (Maint. + A&D) used 9.6 million usd
2)without any debt deduction cash 44.6 million, debt 32 million

Flat production Free Cashflow forecast. Okay look here it is very very clearly defined. YE 2021 net debt free and 12.57 usd in cash, Dividend Yield 10.3% at 3O% FCF 700 million shares out, based on production of 9046BoE/d.(104 boe below stated 9150boe/d stated in early Feb) Includes additional taxes on rev. Gain from product price and 1.5 million USD grant from Alberta. Other costs shouldn’t change as rev increase in from pricing increase. (Doesn’t include Noel 500Boe/d added in q2.) Everything in USD. Prices Edm sweet= $61 Alberta NG= $2.50 WCS= $53 NGL= $32.27 (55% of blended realized oil price of $58.68) Botton line fcf= $36.81 million USD......best Doc (FYI more money is made with pencil, ruler calculator and page then anything else in this world)

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Links for post

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I was asked in Canada about Clearwater here is more exact info:

“ always happy to clarify my research and respond to reasonable challenges. The SUPER core area is super productive 20-30 meters thick, IP 30 of 590b/d pay's out in 2 months at $WCS 42.50 (currently 53$), IRR at $42.50 over 500%, monster returns, likely close to 800-1000% IRR at current WCS price with 4-6 week payouts. (See chart)

I didn't include those economics in my DD because I didn't want to mislead, we don't hold acreage there, although if you look most of our acreage falls into the Martin Hill tier 2 and Nisipi as far as pay-zone thickness (see chart) and we do have few blocks that have the Tier 1 thickness of +20 meters, therefore I would expect those wells to Ip closer to the Tier 1 and those monster results in the chart. Thus my stated DD and IRR's of plus 400% are very on par with what other operators are experiencing with the same pay zone thickness. Supported by i3, TVE, HWX recent presetnations regarding economics in play.(in the video the CEO did say "these wells come online at round 300b/d so draw your own conclusions as to the productivity of our land.) It is also worth noting HWX has modeled an ultimate recovery of up to 28% higher than prior thought. high-side resource for I3 1.1 billion ooip x .28 = 308 million barrels of oil. IT'S ALL ABOUT THE PAY ZONE THICKNESS and where we are in pretty thick, where we are we have half the average thickness 10-15 meters of the SUPER TIER 1 area and thicker then Nisipi, for Martin's Creek we have excellent land, Martin’s Creek tier 1 (see geological thickness map) https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1g5461c-IMG_6931%202.jpg+ https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1g5461o-IMG_6932.PNG+ https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1g54621-IMG_6933.jpg+ “

Not much to add past this I’ve given this board all my research. Chat more as info comes out. I’ll be chatting with CFO tomorrow. Best Doc

GGG you’ll go crazy trying to understand every tick hour to hour, day to day. I3 is up something like 200% in the last 12 months so an occasional down days will happen. If you know what it is you won’t worry about every tick up/down. Enjoy the ride.

"DocJuimJones: Is there a formal way to register for your group Doc? And do you even want that support?" No, the group is myself and 2 other accredited Investors, we've invested along side each other for years.

Sounds good I'll use USD going forward.

I’m not in the business of pitting one of my core holding against another. (KELT vs. i3) I’ve provided an enormous amount of data and hard facts supporting my thesis on i3 returning 5x in the next year. I would suggest that both are undervalued and i3 is the most undervalued in my portfolio especially since the known Canadian producers are being upgraded by major banks/brokers. I3 just needs time to become known. It will be reporting its first ever q in the next few weeks as well as announcing its first ever dividend. Once that happens coverage and upgrades will pour in. Seeking Alpha still doesn’t have its ticker listed, stockhouse just listed the ticker a few days ago. Plus i3 will get into the tsx oil/gas index this year, more demand for shares. Kelt was upgraded 48 hours ago to. $4.5 price target currently $3 giving them a 850 million market cap. https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1g53noo-C7B4698E-F1DD-4FA2-B5AD-749A4585775C.png Headwater Exploration currently has a $860 million market cap, gaining $600 million in value since November after announcing a large acquisition in the Clearwater and shifting its focus entirely on just that area, and their production guidance ye 2021 is just 6000b/d. So if when we develop Clearwater and add just 2000b/d will we gain 200 million in m/c? Maybe? Most likely imho. Frankly if anyone after all the combined due diligence you, others myself have contributed to this board can’t see the inherent value and upside coming in i3 they should choose another sector. What’s the 10 year bond in uk 0.85%, ever a dividend yield of 5% (+500% higher) will drive funds into i3 just for the secure income and it is secure, they could easily start hedging % of production.

Maestro oil/condensate liquids production 22-29k per flowing barrel / dry gas 7k-10k per flowing Boe. Not all barrel are created equal. .... there are numerous ways to add it all up, the production, the p1,p2 reserves, the infrastructure, that’s at least 50 million, the 200+ booked drilling locations with irrs above 50% at 55$wti, the unbooked resources, Clearwater, a total 427+ acres, the North Sea assets. Hundreds and hundreds of millions in value and more to be unlocked as p2 reserve move to p1 and resources outside the current p1-2 are developed (Clearwater, the High impact horizontal Falher formation where Noel tested 700boe/d etc)

If just Serenity works out to be 100 million barrels and let’s say they end up with 30% in a JV at just 4$usd a barrel that’s 30x4=$ 120 million usd , that’s great then the current Enterprise Value. And importantly they have the time and resources to explore those North Sea options. If they wanted to they would be net debt free by the end of Q2 this year. No debt and just constant cashflow and many many options to grow production and net asset value which ultimately means a higher share price and higher dividends.

Moses, I don’t want to post other stock names here but Under my profile at ceo.Ca my current positions are listed, All my buys and sells listed in my threads and the my last few due diligence research reports are under my profile. Last year I was firmly in the JR gold sector ( it’s all documented there as well as my +600% gain in 2020 on my public portfolio) then in sept/oct 2020 twitched weighting’s to copper/ oil / iron ore / lumber for Marco economical reasons.

Canadian dollars price per acres to be conservative, the article I read in the Oil & Gas Journal didn't specify. I assume Canadian $

In hindsight the best thing to happen to I3 was Opec's war of Us shale followed by Covid oil collapse, otherwise they would have got these assets when they did and at historic fire sale prices, they paid the least per flowing barrel in history. They were the only bidders on them at the time. It was super rare window of opportunity that opened and closed in a matter of weeks. Truly amazing.

Info from Sedar filings: photos links here: https://ceo.ca/ite?d694dcdf5fc9

The Toscana asset history in 2016 the properties had a carrying value of $91 million when we bought them for 3 million $. The carrying value was 53.7 million in dec 2019. Notice to debt that was crushing them combined with collapsing oil price. From 2016-2019 assets were being written down due to declining oil/ng prices, impairment charges, etc, plus Clearwater oil formation wasn’t discovered until 2018 those 29k acres were carried at almost nothing on the books. Today Clearwater acres in our area due to thick pay zone go for 1000-2000$ with no production ( value 29k x average of 1500$ = 43.5 million not taking into acct production value) add it up Toscanas assets low end 53.7 million + 43.5 million = 97.2 miilion approx then add in value of oil production across company around 800b/d = 16 million at 20k per flowing barrel( industry price is typically 22-29k per flowing BOE) . = grand total of 113.2 million Canadian $. I3’s Current mc $133 million Canadian $. $3 million usd to buy a min of 113.2 million (91 million USD) in assets. Deal of the century. Good lesson on not over paying and not over leveraging a balance lest the wolves (i3) will eat you.

Tsx/lse price has reached parity which now clears the way for sustainable move higher imho no more Arbitrage. Good job guys lol!

In presentation in dec Clearwater was just 600b/d production, average well in our area ip’s est. 250b/d ... considering the whole company is producing only 2000b/d oil they could double that in no time and oil drives out rev and margins and fcf

As well Tony in Dec proactive the ceo singled out Clearwater as an area of priority for capital deployment. Around 12:00-18:16 "we are bringing production back in Clearwater... etc etc " as well as he talked about Gain infrastructure. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XcgA5Re7kGA

Hi Tony, For all we know they already are drilling, They will update at end of this month. In prior presentation, it said they budgeted 6-8 Million for q1 to drill 4-6 ClearWater wells. So I think we will get a pleasant surprise in production in q2.

Noel it was on Gains land. Another important point I think some miss. (That’s right doc is chiming in with more boring data) watch the proactive investor interview from Dec 2020. The Gain portfolio already has infrastructure in place to support 30’000 Boe a day of production. Currently Gain is producing about 9k, we have capacity to triple production without have the long lag and capital spending on infrastructure. The hardest part is not drilling it’s getting the crude/gas treated and to market. Problem already solved up to a 3x production increase. Gains portfolio came with over 200 in field drilling locations that generate over 50% irrs at $55 wti ponder the fcf at a 30’000 boe/d. Finally folks are starting to get it in regards to our company and that the industry is going to be around a long long time.

Rig rates are very stable, remember us is limiting drilling, and barring drilling in federal lands now, us companies don’t have access to capital like before, the rig count fell last week FYI

Clearwater is basically all oil, very little gas or water, open hole completions, no liner, no frac fluid or thermal injecting. Shallow just 500 meters in depth, It’s really incredible. That’s why wells are so cheap and quick to drill and payout quick. You don’t have to worry about dealing with water treatment and capturing massive amounts of gas, ultra low carbon emissions. The greenest oil wells in the world