Member Info for Drjimjones

sorry for typos my daughter is banging on my keyboard she's 2 "outdated report" "use the price of Brent" etc etc you all get the idea

Hello, I didn't come here to have a ****ing contest. If I offended sorry, I'm data guy, lack social skills...I think Tony's prior calls before drilling were reasonable based on available data, No one knows what under the ground and off-shore drilling is a high risk/high reward game, anyone who plays should be prepared for heavy losses, as well the macro environment turns dramatic down.

It seems many rely on your opinion, which I good and are using an updated report on I3 to make decisions, why not update it then now that a lot of info has come out. The most obvious of went is is the oil price used to forecast fcf, it has increased 44%. The increase flows directly to the fcf line. Using your report fcf just from the increase in oil price = $17'889'781 USD. (Edmonton Sweet = WTI - CMEGROUP EDM SWEET Daily Diff of April 2021 -$2.31 as of today)

NGL barrel price at 55% ED SWEET for realized = increase of $13.05 per BOE = additional $4'015'000 in additional FCF

*** Cost per BOE stays flat, the change is in price therefore Margins have drastically increase disproportional to the increase in product price to the upside.

2) incorporate Clearwater acres value. Recently companies that acquire Clearwater Acres for development have seem their Mc double in the months that follow see HWX.TO 380 to $915 million MC, TVE.TO 300 to $611 million MC on the back of acquiring and focusing on Clearwater, Recent acres sales went for $1500/ acres with no production, how many acres do we have 45.9 sections net=29'376k acres x $1500 = $44 million Canadian.

I would suggest using only Canadian Production Companies as a comp. International companies value metrics means little to the value of a Canadian Producer/developer

Comp I'd suggest ATU, IPO, KEL, AAV, BTE especial the clearwater names listed above, they get a Premium due to super high margins of oil weighted future production.

Lastly. Look you can you Brent price in your report if you want but pricing for ED SWEET, WCS is based off WTI - basin differential, using Brent can mislead other when modelling future cashflow. Google it and the CFO stated in the webinar "Edmonton Sweet oil has the quality of Brent oil and is priced of WTI minus the differential or 3 to 4$"

Source for differentials everyone can check to go CMEGROUP website look up Edmonton light sweet daily index and Western Canada Select index you can see the forward price into next year.

As well to consider is the high interest debt will be taken out by a low interest First Lien Reserve Lending Facility saving 3 million a year in debt servicing cost, again goes to the FCF line.

These are just suggestions. My comment before was rash, what I should of said is "This Report in Nov 2020 was bang on for Nov, but we are now in a completely different price environment and it's targets therefore are not valid. Plus there is a lot more information available about the Clearwater Play that should in. incorporated in the fut

With respect Brent has nothing to do with wcs or Edmonton sweet pricing, future options are future not yet issued and price not set yet on those so should t be included if they price the 35 million future options at .30 p or .50 p does anyone care currently? The broker should be using wti - basin differentials but look regardless the oil gas price across the board is up 50% and that increase fall right to the fcf line. Very very positive

In Canada Canacord Genuity which actually knows the Canadian Oil sector has a buy rating and 6 month target that = 16 pence.

Trading as we speak in Canada at 10.9 pence on the bid. We get it because we know our oil sector. You guys are luck you get a little discount. Fragmented market hell in German they bid it up to 12.7 pence today low volume but the whole point is i3 is a completely different company now 427k acres in Canada best oil/gas basins. Compare to other Canadian producers and with that fair comp you will see why myself and my colleagues when own over 2.5 % of the whole company bought on the open market. Have a nice weekend. Best Doc Jones

And in the legal filing only 70 million option/warrants out..... so again off.... if you rely on brokers for buy and sell guidance kids your pence goodbye

Read the report.... he’s obviously doesn’t know much about the Canadian oil sector. 1) he’s using Brent price, wrong price 2) production numbers are higher then in Report 3) it was written in Nov. Since then oil price have over increased 50% that equals another 40 million in cashflow.... sooo do you think based on that his price target is a little low? Lol. In general these broker reports suck do your own work and are wrong in their forecasts 150% of the time.

I don't know about his report can you link it please. I'm going by the legal filing.

Good idea, I will ask about. Topics I'll cover, OTC listing in USA, Hedging if any, refinancing of debt into a low cost first lien, development of Clearwater, cap structure, IR updates, etc

Thanks, So from what I read a total of 58.9 million warrants, 4.21 million Lombard at 47.6p, 5.27 Million BHGE at 56.85p. the right o.oo1 = 80% at 0 20% at 53p approx average total warrant value at = 10p right around here. Yeah I know it's not great but considering that's what they had to do to buy +500 million in assets for a +90% discount I'm okay with that.

Options 16.1 million at 0 again okay with that for reason above I don't see however where you came up with 140 million options and warrants, in the filing I only see approx 70 million, ill look again though, page 650, page 660... Thanks for pointing me to this.

Doesn't degrade my long term target that much from $2 to $1.80-1.90can$

Because oil/gas in such a huge part of Canada's economy, I would suggest also going to the ceoca stock board for i3 to better understand the value since the principle assets of i3 now reside there. There is a lot of guys/gals with boots on the ground adding their intelligence to the discussion. As well a many professional analyst. The North Sea is your realm. Best to be informed. Sign up for an acct and add your understanding of i3, together we can all be better investors focused on data vs. emotion or heresy.

yes for example there are 22 million warrants priced at .39p that's 400% higher then here, fine with that ( Filing, page 64 i3 Energy PLC 2019 Annual Report and Financial Statements)

Time to catch up fellas lol!

An all time high would be $2 Canadian I think that’s achievable a 1.4 billion market cap. 3 years from now including a North Sea development and growing production and reserves.... haven’t seen Mirabauds write up, where can I find it? Off hand since i3 released their estimated oil/gas strip price has increased +20% which translates into a +50% increase in noi for 2021. Example you sell for 40$ and it cost you $20 to produce = margin of $20, price of goods sold increases 20%. You sell for $50 your cost is still $20 = margin of $30, a 50% increase. So if prior noi was 28 million us then it will be now 42 million usd or 53 million Canadian and climbing as new well are tied in and oil prices continue to rise. Perfect storm. And i3 cost are very low there production is conventional low decline. And they own a lot of the infrastructure too

To stay up to date use Oilprice,com all prices in usd then convert to Canadian dollars. Alberta Natural Gas mfc $2.70 = $3.39 canWCS $54.87 = $68.88 can edm sweet oil $62.01 = $77.77 (majority of i3 oil production get edm sweet pricing) Now annual rev: production 10k Boe a day= 3.65 million Boe a year x a blended realized price of $42 a Boe = $153 million USD, Net back per barrel approx to be conservative $20 usd x 3.65 million boe production annually = 73 million usd/ 91.5 million Canadian ebitda 2021, the market cap is 119 Canadian we trade at almost 1x ebidta the industry norn is 5x (and no taxes on profits until the 96 million in inherited tax losses are exhausted). Data data data will always win in the long game.

A few typos in there $15000 a barrel not $1500 math 10000 barrel a day x 15$k per flowing Boe (blended liquids/Gas = 150 million

Morning uk from Canada.
I read that comment and AGREE. Don’t take anything in my DD Report at face value, I encourage all to verify the data, sources are listed, use google, know for yourselves what I know based on the data. In all honesty I did mint know this forum existed until someone found me on ceo.Ca and said “Doc your report been posted in the uk.”
As far as monkeys 1500$/flowing barrel, the industry acquisition price for the last 5 years has been $23k/per flowing oil barrel and $11k/ per flowing gas (boe) barrel so with i3s production profile of approx 45% liquids 55% gas =$ 150 million is reasonable for their 10k barrels a day of blended production. That’s the value of just the production. The whole company is multiple 100s of millions higher. The reserve alone have a npv10 (net present value- 10% discount) in excess of $500 million. Then add is unbooked drill locations that don’t have reserves, Clearwater alone 29k acres at -$2000 an acres assigning no value for pipeline we own and oil batteries and water rights is 60 million min....

I did buy yesterday but only added a small amount 300k so I didn’t move the needle.

Stick to the facts and know what it is. I don’t expect to harvest my gains for at least 3 years here after they have had tome to grow production and exploit Clearwater and North Sea jv. I believe a 700+ million mc is achievable is 18-24 months or 5-6x from here.

Do some googling and you will find everything is in line with always I’ve said. In the end whether you buy or sell or the price goes up or down in the next month means little to me. Cause I know what it is and what it’s worth. I’ll be riding this to new all time highs over the next few years. Best doc. FYI Edm sweet oil $75+ Canadian, wcs +69 Canadian Alberta ng =+ $3 best prices in years.

No not really, not with the current share price and outlook on fossil fuels, the dividend will keep this stock sticky for institutional investors

Now we are on a level ground, nothing capping the shares. In constant currency LSE close was 16.8 cent Canadian, TSX close was 17 cents Canadian. Finally the average retail will benefit.

Larger Arbitrages historically keeps a share price depressed.

I'll be speaking with the CFO next Thurs. I'll post my notes after. Best Dr. Jones

http://www.kereport.com/2021/03/11/doc-jones-research-report-on-i3-energy/
http://www.kereport.com/2021/03/11/doc-jones-research-report-on-i3-energy/