Member Info for Drjimjones

Yes, I expect with dividend announcement a refined 2021 guidance and news on development strategy with Clearwater.

https://ceo.ca/index?5e70c926d958

See for yourself #1, beat the us crown jewel Delaware Basin by a long shot. Oil/Gas plays rated across North America for Payout Period. Alberta’s Clearwater Oil play formation discovery only 4 years ago. I3 Energy has 29k acres, 1.1 billon barrels (OOIP) Recoverable up to 222 million barrels 5% Primary, 15% Secondary recovery, current IRR,s exceed 400% on their land. (Click on link and see graph)

Yes we are. Lol. The oil/gas market hasn’t even really started to ramp up yet. We are in a low demand time anyway in North America. Not too hot not too cold (no a/c no excessive use of heat) plus no one is driving, businesses are not open. The demand in 6-8 weeks will grow exponentially and the only spare capacity is opec for oil. No spare capacity for NG until it’s drilled.

Once they file their first q being a tsx company then they’ll get a us listing otc. With a solid dividend more than 3-4x the us 10 treasury demand for shares south of the boarder will be robust. Especially due to oil/gas investors in us have to invest outside us to avoid Biden political risk of being a us producing.

That’s an excellent point approx 10% royalty tax on addition rev beyond the report. Going back to my model “Annual FCF based on flat pricing and flat production of 9150BOE/d (2118 oil, 1918 NGL, 5114 NG)

=$49'988,086USD FREE CASHFLOW. (Does Not include the 500BOE/d of NG being added in Q2)”

Approx 43 million in additional rev from increase in oil/gas/liquid prices = 4.3 million in additional royalty tax payable = new FCF of $ 45.6 million usd

Someone asked about dividend amount, I can’t say I imagine they’ll want to be conservative at first though so there is room to increase or not adjust should prices weaken and to increases production quickly. Another question was time to drill, in Clearwater 28 days to drill and complete so very quickly from spud to cash flow. I think they’ll come in around 7%-8% yield to begin and increase it steadily.

Warehouse cash, drill Clearwater get those wells paying out in 5 months then it’s fcf for years, increasing fcf steadily month after month with focus on increasing oil production.

Generally when one party resorts to generalities and slander as a rebuttal to clearly defined facts, one has little to offer. Barnyard Guy, if you don't believe math or the laws of supply and demand, that's your choice, you run with that, no one is forcing you to invest here.

You want to debate future price forecasting of oil based on current macro trends I'm all ears.

Most likely you sold early and are experiencing seller-remorse or Fomo or just want some attention. The data is the data, you can posit all the wild theories you want, post silly videos, it just all exposes your character not mine.

In the end the immutable laws of economics shall always prevail.

We are all motived by self interest, mine is pretty clear and well documented across 4 countries for years now: to invest for profit while educating other.

I'm aware of Recon, huge warrant overhang though and no resource yet very very high risk. A lot of professional letter writer were pumping it because they were in the Private Placement .

"Unit will consist of one common share (a "Common Share") in the capital of the Company and one common share purchase warrant (a "Warrant") of the Company at a price of C$0.70. Each Warrant will entitle the holder to acquire one Common Share at a price of C$1.00 for a period of five years from the Closing Date."

Since the stock has run over 400% on the hope of a discovery. +400 million MC

Moses Have you read the research? No pump it’s all hard data. Right, no magic no leaps of faith. Hard data. The story is unknown and misunderstood I want to correct that. Period. Why? Because I own with my small group over 14 million shares. Do I have self interest yes like all investors. My long term plan it to add the coming dividend to my other pool of investment generated income to support myself family etc and reinvest. The main reason I’m here is because 1 someone here posted my research 2 because it seemed there was a lack of understanding in uk about the company, to educate. Again it’s all hard data with sources sited and formulas presented. Frankly, pump and dump?! This isn’t a pot stock or internet company with no rev. It’s a hard assets, cashflow generating machine. Anyone who sells this knowing all the information is pretty foolish imho. Anyway. Sure point taken there is such a thing as being overly excited, I will temper my Enthusiasm. Hard data friend that’s all that matters. Best Doc Jones

If you believe in the company’s future go to my Twitter an retweet my Due Diligence Report. The dislocation in share price to value is from a misunderstanding of what the company is now. My research is all copyright free so feel free to cut and paste in any site you want.

Best Doc Jones
Twitter:@drjimjonesceo

As far as drilling well, depend where but fairly quick because they own infrastructure and don’t have to build out a pipeline to add volumes at this point.

Golf? No, honesty this is all I do, I pick apart companies all day every day looking for value,

Yes I see them expanding production. The returns are too great not too.

Gilteddge, What I'm showing you are the hard numbers based on what we know. They may scale back dividend to 20% of fcf at first to aggressively grow production to have a more robust dividend in later q's before scaling up to 40% as they have stated the plan is. If you can buy a company at less then 2x fcf with zero net debt priced at .1-.2 of it's net asset value and is GROWING...it's obvious what one should do. What will be the dividend YE 2022? +5,6,7 cents USD?

Dividend Decimal wrong place 1.95 cent usd per share. Over all the -/+ factor is oil prices and how much is wcs and Ed sweet and wti if you say 800b/d are wcs then subtract 2.6 million from fcf its priced 9$ below Ed sweet at roughly .... hope all this helps best doc

This is a steady state model, production and prices stay constant as well as expenses.
Expense were taken from that report
Since last update by company production prices have increase drastically.

Current prices per barrel: ED Sweet= 63.3. NGL (@55% WTI) 36.09. Alberta NG $16.44

Production Profile per day: Oil 2118, NLG: 1918 NG BOE: 5114

Daily Rev on 9150 BOE/Day : (2118x 63.3) + (1918x36.09) +(5114x 16.44) = 287'365 $ USD

Annual Rex 287'365 x 365 +1'400'000 (pipeline rev)= $106'288'086

Cash Expenses (non cash aren't important) from report in millions (expense that cause money to leave the company)

Op cost 36.7
Interest Paid 2.9
Cap ex 9.6
G&A 7.1

Annual FCF based on flat pricing and flat production of 9150BOE/d (2118 oil, 1918 NGL, 5114 NG)

=$49'988,086USD FREE CASHFLOW. (Does Not include the 500BOE/d of NG being added in Q2)

Forward dividend @ 30% fcf =$14.996 Million, per share dividend at midpoint of fully diluted of 770 Million shares = 19.5cent USD

Note: Over 60 % of our rev comes from Liquids, we are highly levered to the oil price. We have a 94 million Canadian tax loss credit so our first 75 million USD in profits are tax free. Whats important is how much cash does the company keep, Earnings will always be lower than cashflow due to DD&A for example which is a non-cash charge. Our investors of drilling in highly leveraged to oil production. We are unhedged capturing full spot prices. After paying dividend the company has 35 million usd in cash + 18.8 on blanch sheet prior giving them a Total cash balance of 53.8 million usd / 32 million in debt = Net debt 0, net cash 21.8.....Right? Cash machine.

Go to ceo Ca i3 board and watch the video I posted from nine points capital after which you will understand everything you need to know about the current state of the global oil market. Best Doc https://ninepoint.zoom.us/rec/play/c3hUmtNrdLh-VYif4M0F-KSA8zjOAyxZVSWtE_Ltc1_9Xk60GzTSjpHth9XYX92DV2cBA4M8xkmbnuka.4pChMHliOiCy-fGN?continueMode=true&_x_zm_rtaid=gHT82Dj8RNqvm381U5RRTQ.1615390960351.581d9d5ab419f33db2303b3247f6ef9f&_x_zm_rhtaid=166

True the mature ones with no growth the average JR producers if it does pay a dividend is 1-2% though

Maybe 20x in 3 years with production gains from Clearwater and other acreage drilled out pushing production to 20k/day and weighted towards oil form Clearwater..... but at $80 oil 10x is pretty clear...at the current 65$ oil 5x is very, very clear...to me anyway.... make sense?... Personally I think a lot of the warrants were burned through last week, over 100 million shares on both exchanges and price still went up a bit. IfI had the warrants why not de-risk position a bit. Then ride the rest for dividend and price upside.

MADE A MISTAKE BELOW, I didn't back out cost per barrel from realized price THIS IS THE CORRECT NUMBER, SEE CAN FOLLOW THE MATH.......is there an editing tool for posts?

Going by that report their blend cost per BOE is $13.33 on 9000boe/d averages realized price $22.2 a barrel with oil price of $37.5 (Realized price 59% of oil price blended) at 80$ realized price = $47.36 - cost which are fixed of $13.33 = Ebitda, 9000boe/d x 365 x $34.03 = $111'788,500 of EBITDA. What's cash charges come out in millions - (interest =2.9 Finance and other=5.4 cap ex =9.6 ) Answer is Free Cash Flow =93'888'550 Million USD / 700 million shares = FCF per share 13.4 USD. Do fully, fully diluted Do fully, fully diluted $ / 840 million shares = 11.2cents USD. In UK terms Pence 9.633/ 8.05 Pence Annual FREE CASH FLOW apply 30% fcf dividend and that's stupid crazy money. That all at $80 oil and WITHOUT adding in the 500 BOE coming on line next month or refinancing debt at a lower cost, drilling and adding production. See this is "x" rated material for me because I'm a data nerd. At 80$ oil we trade at 1x FCF forgot Ebitda, FCF, Canadian producers trade at easily 8-10x FCF... Everyone clear. Great. lol. Then what if the North Sea gets developed, duel income streams... Best Doc Jones.... (I took all the cost etc from MIRABAUD Rep136.7 / 840 million shares = 16.2 cents USD. In UK terms 14.09 Pence / 11.65 Pence Annual FREE CASH FLOW apply 30% fcf dividend and that's stupid crazy money.........80$ oil = Answer is Free Cash Flow =93'888'550 Million USD

Good question. I think its pretty close. For one the 22% increase in price since feb = about a 40-50% gain in FCF, fc margins increase faster than price of goods sold. Plus the companies guidance is based on a strip price in backwardation vs. contango. Use a flat price for year. They have to use the backwardation strip price (that means the further you go out the lower the price) generally though as the front month contract rolls off the next month will rise to the current price. The oil market is in backwardation because lack of supply, it doesn't incentivize folks to buy oil and store it to sell later at a higher price like last year. Opec has ensured this by cutting production forcing the world to work through all the oil in storage. It's really positive for prices currently and over the next few years barring a global economic collapse. Storage gets worked off, level in storage fall supporting higher prices then the market will shift into contango that's when it good to hedge some production forward. It sucks for the shipping tanker, kill demand for floating storage. Same thing for the differential futures market it to is in backwardation. I can't tell you how bullish the macro set up is for oil prices is right now, Once the world reopens, summer driving season, industrial demand, jet fuel, etc.... Lack of investment in new sources of long term production, Biden's war against Us Shale and off shore. Soon in the next few years Canadian crudes will compete with Brent and be prices as such. I3's acreage is awesome, cheap to drill, cheap to maintain, Clearwater is a company maker on its own. They were either smart or lucky in their timing but who cares, with oil heading to $80 this year.. Going by that report their blend cost per BOE is $13.33 on 9000boe/d averages realized price $22.2 a barrel with oil price of $37.5 (Realized price 59% of oil price blended) at 80$ realized price = $47.36 - cost which are fixed of $13.33 = Ebitda, 9000boe/d x 365 x $47.36 = $155,577,600 of EBITDA. What's cash charges come out in millions - (interest =2.9 Finance and other=5.4 cap ex =9.6 ) Answer is Free Cash Flow =136.7 Million USD / 700 million shares = FCF per share 19.6 USD. Do fully, fully diluted 136.7 / 840 million shares = 16.2 cents USD. In UK terms 14.09 Pence / 11.65 Pence Annual FREE CASH FLOW apply 30% fcf dividend and that's stupid crazy money. That all at $80 oil and WITHOUT adding in the 500 BOE coming on line next month or refinancing debt at a lower cost, drilling and adding production. See this is "x" rated material for me because I'm a data nerd. At 80$ oil we trade at less then 1x FCF forgot Ebitda, FCF, Canadian producers trade at easily 8-10x FCF... Everyone clear. Great. lol. Then what if the North Sea gets developed, duel income streams... Best Doc Jones.... (I took all the cost etc from MIRABAUD Report)

Again lots of typos multitasking with a toodle.

Actually increase fcf from ngld volumes is 1918 boe/d x 365 x $13.95 = $9.1 million USD. I used 2020 volumes instead of 2021 in prior so fcf increase between product price increase oil/ngl = Approx 24-26 million usd add in prior forecast of 17.2 million =41-43 million fcf usd for 2021 not including increases in production, that’s pretty substantial a min 130% increase. That effects dividend, price target for shares, pace of field development etc etc.