RE: Funding scenarios16 Dec 2023 12:41
Nibj- I think nobody wanted to pay “fair price” this last 13years for a greenfield project(to much risk-2-premium), So we’re going brownfield(small scale), this will help us achieve a “fairer price”. There will be dilution to achieve this, and so long as it adds value, I personally don’t have any issues. I think we will then be brought out as a small scale producer(could be the whole project, or just our stake).
Why now- because the iron ore market pressures/price/co2/high grade= GAME ON.
Also, the restructuring of the company last year makes this cleaner for Glencore to increase their holding without being in direst control(although they still have control behind the curtain).
This is a very complex conversation to have, and there are so many variables.
In summary-
1-we will see dilution next year to fund initial development/Glencore will part-fund and increase their stake in doing so.
2-A “money”partner will be brought in.
3- We will get bought out 2025 onwards by a major/maybe Glencore, maybe a major buys Glencore out?( I don’t care, as long as I get £2+)
I’m expecting £500m-1bn market cap 2024, £3bn+ 2025 onwards, equating to share price is dependent on dilution, but expecting £1 p/s 2024/£3+ 2025 onwards.
Of course there’s still a possibility all this noise is merely a rue to force a buyout at a “fair” price.
It will all become clearer as soon as next week(with any luck)!
AIMO.
Gla.