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There's no trading update coming tomorrow as FunInvestor says.
The latest statement is detailed below in the Deadline article of 3rd December 2020, and concerns our CEO, Moody Gredinger's views on reopening.
The SP has risen 5% today, as i said it would last night, to correct it's massive over reaction on Friday drop. Cinemark did the same in the US and probably will rise a little today again.
https://deadline.com/2020/12/regal-cineworld-reaction-warner-bros-hbo-max-2021-slate-windows-mooky-greidinger-1234650418/
Good points from @Moola, @ABrooking, @PrayFor and @LTHCINE.
Another very important point we have to remember Netflix don't actually need to buy big studio's movies in, because they make more films (in 2019) than any studio year on year. That accounted for 60 English language Netflix original movies in 2019.
This is the reason they don't court the studios heavily to provide them with studio produced movies (which Netlix would obviously have to pay heavily for).
Another point is industry kudos. The Oscars is the World Cup of film acolades. Every studio wants them, and be under no illusion Netflix wants them too. They've already won Oscars for The Irishman, Marriage Story and Roma. Three good films. But, lets be honest, that's three out of how many? There have been over 100 Netflix original movies made in the last 5 years. Many of them are not particularly critically acclaimed, in fact they are slammed. How many Neflix original movies would you honestly go back and watch again? Not many i suspect.
In addition not every big director wants to work for the foremost reason that many directors believe (rightly in my mind's eye) that big movies do look better on the big screen.
But having said all that, i will repeat the long stated point that streaming and Cinema can and will for the forseeable future live together.
Good luck all.
https://www.adn.com/arts/film-tv/2020/01/01/netflix-made-more-films-than-any-other-studio-now-it-wants-an-oscar/#:~:text=LOS%20ANGELES%20%E2%80%94%20Netflix%20Inc.%20has,group%20that%20represents%20movie%20studios.
@Latpulldown
I’m going to add one to your comprehensive list of the some of the worlds biggest cinema chains.....Cineplex - the 8th biggest cinema chain in the world, whom Cine were going to purchase pre Covid. Not an insignificant Canadian chain with 164 theatres and an annual revenue of $1.64b.
Off Fridays share prices
IMAX +3.74%
Cinemark + 8.65%
AMC - 3.31%
Cineworld - 14.99%
Cineplex - - 0.92%
Cinema openings at CINE now also being brought forward to March.
I believe we were dropped too far with the Friday auction. Looking forward to a minimum 5% recovery play tomorrow, with good news to look forward to at the end of the week from the FDA in the US re Pfizer approval.
Good luck all.
Thanks @zstarz.
Yes, true, i believe we're intelligent to realise that many of these big studios have already been around the streaming services to try and see how much they'd get for some of their movies.
We know United Artists/MGM tried to get $600m for Bond. No dice. They were only offered $300m.
Have no doubt, some of the smaller movies will go to streaming, but to quote Mooky - "Big movies are made for the big screen". So true.
Thanks @zstarz.
Yes, true, i believe we're intelligent to realise that many of these big studios have already been around the streaming services to try and see how much they'd get for some of their movies.
We know United Artists/MGM tried to get $600m for Bond. No dice. They were only offered $300m.
Have no doubt, some of the smaller movies will go to streaming, but to the bigger one....like they say,
Good Evening,
We all now know Warner Media have announced their intention to concurrently stream their 2021 movies at the same time as their theatrical release. It's pretty likely Disney will announce something similar for at least Q1 of 2021, Mulan and Soul show us this. This experiment will, no doubt, prove very costly for both Warner and Disney. I'll wager anyone that Warner will have cancelled the simultaneous Cinema/HBO MAX theatrical release experiment by August this year.
Now here's a list of all the major studios that do not have their own streaming platforms, or affiliated platforms, and in all likelihood will go straight to Cinematic release;
Miramax
Sony Pictures
Lionsgate
United Artists Releasing
MGM
Universal
Paramount
IFC Fims.
There's a list below of every movie coming out in 2021 and their respective studios. It's some list.
CINE and Cinema is going to be absolutely fine once Covid is brought under control this Spring/Summer. Good luck all.
https://www.movieinsider.com/movies/2021
Yes @ Newbie2020, if Warner Media had said all their upcoming movies were going straight to streaming, the SP would be on the floor now!
Don't worry too much, remember MGM tried to hawk Bond's No Time to Die around the various streamers this autumn......they were prepared to take $600m for it. The streaming services were reportedly only happy to pay a max of $300m. That didn't even cover the film's production cost and wages!
These tentpole movies are simply too expensive for Amazon and Netflix, and Warner Media will realize when Wonderwoman 1984 fails to bring in anywhere near what they want for it - $1 billion - that it's not a viable business model today. Now think when Covid is brought under control in the summer and they'll wish they'd pushed back it theatrical release to Summer 2021, where it would have got it's near to it $1 billion revenue.
A bad business move from Warners, have no doubt, That'll be two massive losses; Tenet, and WW 1984. It won't look good on the balance sheet.
Anyway, rant over. Good luck all.
https://www.businessinsider.com/no-time-to-die-stream-james-bond-netflix-apple-mgm-2020-10?r=US&IR=T
I'm in.
Hopefully cooler heads prevail over the weekend, and people realize this really isn't the end of world for Cinema. It's not like every studio is going to have streaming and theatrical release simultaneously. They can't. The only way you'll watch Top Gun 2 at home this summer is courtesy of a modern day Pirate!
Next week, as has been said, the Pfizer vaccine will get approved on 11th December by the FDA, and fingers crossed (though it shouldn't in fact make any difference to our SP) a Brexit deal of some description.
Good luck all.
Mooky's statement was, i'm sure, just what we were expecting from the man after his previous interviews. Not much seems to phase him. He always a cool, reserved manner about him when discussing his business, even at the most desperate of times.
As regards Studio's holding the power over Cinema's. I will agree that Disney and Warner Media appear to have this power, today. This appears so because they both have their own Streaming platforms to air new movies on. Whether they can get the number of new customers to sign up to their platforms is a whole different story. Disney + take up has been low so far.
On a Positive note there are huge number of big studios that do not have their own streaming platforms. We have seen that existing behemoths Netflix and Amazon are willing to pay the huge sums for the blockbuster movies. The $125m Netflix paid for Coming to America 2 is a joke! It would have been very lucky to achieve that revenue in Cinemas.
Couple this with the fact that directors like Chris Nolan, Steven McQueen, Paul Greengrass or Cary Joji Fukanaga would despise having to make movies to be watched on a TV screen, or (in their minds eye) the horror of someone watching their masterpiece on a phone!
Mooky will be liaising with the studios and vice versa to work out the best and safest time to get the doors back open. If a studio is happy to bring a tentpole forward to the middle of February, fantastic. If not he can happily open in March, dusting the cobwebs of the cinemas, in preparation for Bond in April.
CINE will be fine, as we know. Lets see how things play out. Good luck all.
Hi,
Good to see the positivity from the usual decent posters. We’ve seen CINE battered over the last couple of months - instant 50% instant drops on at least two occasions since August.
What I have been impressed with is Everyman’s recovery today. Down 10% on opening and it’s now recovered to just over 2% down.
Let’s hope for a few percentage point gains over the next day(s).
Good luck all
Love CINE @mark_rs, but i can't see Mooky opening on Xmas day, for Wonder Woman 1984 with no clear path to big movies after this until Bond in April.
His path is even murkier than it was two weeks ago, and he has always said publicly that he needs a definite stream of tent pole movies to open up to.
Not much point opening up for WW1984, then having nothing blockbuster big to continue with until Bond.
I'm thinking a March opening, unless other studios rearrange movies schedules for Feb. Sad, but IMO, true.
Dr Anthony Fauci, America's leading infectious diseases scientist, was interviewed on Sky yesterday.
He gave the dates for the Pfizer and Moderna Emergency Use Approval by the FDA. Pretty unlikely they will change from these, as we know Moderna was at least a week behind Pfizer requesting EUA. The roll out to the most vulnerable in the US will start quickly from approval.
Pfizer by 11th December
Moderna by 18th December
Listen from 2 mins 45 seconds into the interview if you want.
https://youtu.be/0b9lUMW0bOk
Well done Warner, Great job,
Now US Customers will have to pay $15.00 for an additional streaming platform. Just what they wanted as their country's being devastated by Covid. You can't get HBO MAX anywhere else in the world but the US, and they have no plans to roll it out. So on top of your Netflix, Amazon Prime, and possibly Disney + subscriptions, have another one!
Good luck Warner getting even 50 million subscribers for HBO Max!! There are some very very happy Pirate streaming companies today, gearing their streaming bandwidths to receive all the free gifts from Warner as and when they release them. It's a pirates dream, a real early Xmas present!
I, for one, wouldn't pay for HBO Max at £15 per month, even if they had it here, that's the cost of a cinema ticket (!), and frankly i don't go to the Cinema every month, so why would i want to pay £15 per month to watch a few decent movies, but a lot of 'B' Movies too.
Roll on Cinema opening, CINE will be fine, as we know we only need 15% Cinema screen occupancy to make a profit, and we'll have a lot more of that once Coivd is under control. A lot of people actually love going out to the cinema, it's a treat, not being cooped up at home watching films, that you can do anytime.
No incentive for Mooky to open up until March/April ready for Bond now.
We'll be fine. Good luck all.
I echo Steve’s sentiments.
On another slightly positive note Cineplex, the biggest Canadian chain ($621m market cap) has just finished trading on the Toronto exchange. There were $6m Cineplex stocks traded today, and It’s only 4% down with the same 1.30 US time dip as the US cinema chains.
We’ve seen it all before.
Cine’s much more resilient now; finding in place, vaccines on the way, and like I said in my last post.....we’re closed anyway...and we weren’t opening in December or probably January, so make of that what you will. Signing off for the night.
Good luck all.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/CGX.TO/
It’s not good news of course, but we must remember differently to all the other big Cinema chains here and across the pond...we’re closed, temporarily shut for business, have been for nearly 2 months.
Mookys even said he won’t open until he has a decent stream of movies to open to, and realistically, HBO Max or not, that’s not until late Feb, March time.
He’s got his funding, he doesn’t need to open for a few B movies and some chump change.
Like I said, it’s not good, but this won’t decimate our SP as badly as it has AMC (in financial trouble anyway), and Cinemark’s.
Good luck all.
True enough Steve,
We'll drop some tomorrow and do a nice bit of recovery play in the afternoon, ready for the weekend, and like you say, Brexit deal and then the Oxford/AstraZeneca approval to boost us up again.
It's strange to me as even now they're buying CINE on the US OTC market, as if everythings normal. Small volume $337,000 but at $0.96, which is around 71p. No drop at 1.30 US Time when AMC and Cinemark dropped hard. Very odd.
CINE's nothing if not resilient.
We'll see what tomorrow brings.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CNNWF/
HBO MAX is USA only. It's Warner's flagship streaming service.
You can't even get it in Canada.
Definitely not in the UK. HBO box office is different
Hi guys,
I'm won't say whether its good news or not, because no one knows until the market opens up tomorrow, but at present we are trading on the US OTC (over the counter) market at $0.96 (up 11.6%), this is 71p give or take. We have traded $337,000 over there today so far. It's a small market.
There was no real downturn in our stock price over there at at 1.30pm (US Time) when Cinemark and AMC Entertainment took large drops 18% and 15% respectively.
Cineplex, who are a Canadian chain, who we were going to buy until this year, are also only trading 3.89% down, the drop taking place at exactly 1.30 US time.
I don't know much, but i know what i'm going to pray for tonight!
Here's a link to our US OTC page
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CNNWF/
NOFEAR,
Sorry, I meant to correct that fact, CINEMARK were trading at $18.22 today before the sudden drop and also the same price in June 20.
Always open to being corrected if i get something wrong.
Blimey, that is bad timing!
Cinemark down 14.51% as i speak.
Hopefully, it does a recovery of some sort from here.
Strange the news was released on Variety's website at 10.30am US time, but the sudden drop happened 45 mins ago (1.30 US Time).
Hope for the best tomorrow.
Mooky won't be pleased!