Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
Good Morning, Yes @Broker1, Jhango still holding would be great news. I'm a little surprised they didn't add to their position post 5th October (their last RNS showing the increase to an 8.58% holding) when they could have scooped up shares at the sub 25p level for several week up until last week.
Anyway, i agree next week will be interesting. The Moderna results will arrive before Wednesday. They've primed the market with teasers, and then the operation Warp Speed briefing yesterday extolled their virtues, as has Dr Anthony Fauci this week. I have no doubt, the results will be great.
Regarding the Debt Waivers, i suspect, and it's only my opinion, the lenders/mooky might have to wait until the FDA grant emergency approval for Pfizer and (most likely) Moderna's vaccines at the end of this month. The FDA emergency approval guarantees these already produced vaccines will be immediately distributed to the most vulnerable Americans in December, and the rest of the US population in 2021. If the Lenders ever wanted a surefire bet that 'the cavalry is on its way, that's it.
Meanwhile we will receive AstraZeneca's results IMO around the same time as the Debt Waiver is agreed at beginning of December. I was worried about our Market Cap position in the FTSE 250 last week. We stood third from bottom with the possibility of being dropped out of the FTSE at the quarterly review on 4th December. That worry is now well and truly over now, as our Market cap is 80% higher than what it was a week. Whatever way you look at it, things are looking good for CINE and the World.
Good luck
Could well be news from Moderna, Dr Fauci, who’ll be at the briefing today, said on Weds just gone, that the Moderna trial results will be released before next Weds.
We know Trump loves a fanfare....just as the US Market closes for the weekend.
Could be a very good Monday for us.
Good luck
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2020/11/12/fauci-predicts-further-covid-19-vaccine-success-as-moderna-prepares-to-submit-early-findings/amp/
It looks like Jhango are still fully on board holding their 117 million shares, this being 8.58% of the total company shares, only exceeded by the 20% owned by Mooky's Global City Holdings.
I guess we would have heard today via RNS, if they had sold a portion of their holdings on Monday or Tuesday this week for a substantial profit on what we assume to be their cumulative average SP. Maybe they, like many of us, see a bigger payday in the near future? Here's hoping
Yes Ian, the MM’s are going to get another nasty shock to the system when the Moderna Trial data is released, the SP goes up again (although not as hard as Mon/Tues) and they’ll have to go through this charade if suppressing the SP all over again!
Then it’ll happen again when the Waiver news gets released, and they’ll find doing the same then rather more difficult! Shame
I agree Ian, there’s no way Warner Bros are going to risk another Tenet scenario takings wise with Wonderwoman 1984.
To put things into perspective the original Wonder Woman made approx $819m worldwide, with a massive $411m coming from US Box office takings, I’ll call that 50% of the total takings from US sales.
Most sensible people knew WW1984 would get moved again, as soon as Covid cases picked up again. They’ll move it to June 21 and get their $1 billion box office revenue.
I Can’t this upcoming decision making much difference to the SP, it’s all about Vaccines and Waivers now.
Good luck CINE long termers.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2017/09/19/box-office-wonder-woman-winds-down-with-411m-domestic-819m-worldwide/amp/
True enough @PrayFor. Kudos to those who managed to buy in top up at 40p today. Truth be told, i didn't listen to your wise words the other day, and i topped up yesterday at 45p and thought that was cheap! I can't see us going much lower than 40p now bearing in mind, in a likelihood, we will be getting the Moderna Vaccine results next week, and they're looking very positive. They're keeping mum on the actual release date, as they want their stock to boost then too. It's up nearly 15% in the last two days already!
That'll be two decent vaccines, then we're just waiting for Astrazeneca's trial results in December.
All good for CINE
True enough @TallchapUK. Who can forget their 'classic' move in late August when they put out the broker note saying
'Cineworld shares could hit 20p', and low and behold a month or so later we were at 23p!
It's annoying, i don't hate them though, they're just doing what they do to make money.
There's not much they will be able to do once second and third vaccine (Moderna and Astrazenaca) trial data is released and IMO the waiver's are signed.
Moderna's news is imminent. Their SP is up 6% today in US trading. The experts word is that their vaccine is every bit as good as Pfizer's.
Going back to the Variety's interview with Mooky detailed today on this bb. Another takeaway i took was no one is breathing down his neck forcing him to open up to show (B) movies, and bring in some chump change. That, in my minds eye, is a good thing. It suggest that both him and the lenders are on the same page. Positive Vaccine news from the trials is indeed a big bonus for the world, and for CINE's position vis a vis the waiver renegotiation.
Good luck all CINE long termers.
It's very possible, so long as the MM's have finished playing their games to drop the price and allow shorters out as @TallChapUK mentioned earlier
We are literally days away from the Moderna release of data from their late stage trials. It was reported by Dr Anthony Fauci, who is in constant communications with all the leading Pharma companies, that that these details would be released within one week ie by next Wednesday.
There's a good 2 minute read on where Moderna are up to here. Good luck all CINE long term holders.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/11/moderna-to-reveal-covid-vaccine-data-436113
Hi @Broker1, sorry to hear about your trials with HSBC. I have been using IG for the last 6 months or so, and i've never had an issue with them. To your point, i have been able to buy and to sell Cineworld shares this week at various stages, including the madness of Monday and Tuesday, and buying a few a 45p this morning. I find it a swift and very user friendly platform. Other platforms are available, of course! Thanks
Good post @RS2002. This is exactly what the hospitality/entertainment sector has needed. A great stop gap before the vaccine is widely distributed.
People go on about the 75% accuracy of these 15 min tests. Well, i tell you what, i'd rather sit on a plane or in a cinema knowing that there is a 75% chance that everyone is clear, than a zero percent chance.
It's a another layer of security and safety that adds to ensuring that we get the economy working again sooner rather than later.
Private Companies could buy these £5 test's and add say £2 to the price of a ticket knowing the footfall they are going to generate is going to cover the small loss. Some Airlines are massively profiteering by charging £120 for one of these tests at airports today!
Totally agree @Moola.
This statement from Mooky also gives Warner Bros the greenlight to make what was going to be another uncomfortable decision for them about the 4th theatrical date move for Wonder Woman 1984. It's 100% the right move.
A Feb release date would be a dream for Cinema, because it would give WW1984 a 2 month run before Bond in April. The the hits will start rolling!
All good for CINE long term.
Nice one @NoFear.
It's going to be a absolutely stellar December for the CINE SP;
Pfizer FDA approval week commencing 30th November 2020 &
AstraZeneca will be releasing their Phase 3 data in December 2020 (they were meant to have it earlier but the Phase 3 Trials in the US only got restarted on Oct 23rd after an issue with a trial participant)
and the main event;
The Debt Waivers will, IMO, get signed off before the Covenant test date on 31st December 2020.
You say 70p, i'm saying it's going to hit £1. Like you say, rightly, FOMO, will be insane, with more positive vaccine news, and the, much more likely than not, Leverage Covenant Waiver sign off.
I haven't even included the possibility of cinema's reopening for December, because, again IMO, this is up in the air at the moment. Parts of the The US are closing down hospitality as we speak, and its pretty likely that Warner Bros will postpone WonderWoman 1984 until later in the year, rather than lose money on their prime money maker, as they did with Tenet.
You'll know if they're advertising it on US Thanksgiving weekend (26th Nov), it's a go, if not, it isn't.
https://www.biopharma-reporter.com/Article/2020/10/26/AstraZeneca-resumes-US-COVID-19-vaccine-trial
A very measured, reserved and sensible post Steve, as usual.
I agree, a positive vaccine is a great thing, but we’re not quite there yet. Approval by the FDA will cement this vaccine’s Status.
I’ve been in Cine for about 4 months now. Full disclosure I’m heavily invested and have been fortunate to be able to average down over the last month or so when it fell into the low/mid 20’s.
Like many shareholders, I’ve been burned a few times; on results day, on the Bond cancellation and the on the temporary closures.
I’ve also seen how the MM’s can play with the share, with ease, to boost it up and push it down at their will. Just look at a chart of the SP for the last 4/5 months to see the large fluctuations many times for no reason.
Unfortunately, this is going to have to happen again before the Waivers agreed, to let the Shorters out with some dignity.
I’d love the SP to stick at these levels and the bounce upwards, but realistically once thIs news of the Pfizer vaccine leaves the front pages, there’s nothing holding the SP up until, IMO, the positive waiver news at the beginning of December.
Again, IMO, Cine’s going to have a great future, and the Waiver news coupled with FDA approval for Pfizer’s Vaccine at the end of Nov, start of Dec will have the SP rocket up twice as hard as today, but I’m not breaking out the Champagne this week.
Good luck all Cine long termers.
Exactly @Prayfor.
Mooky will, if WW1984 gets postponed again, reopen in March preparing for the cavalcade of customers rolling up to see ‘No Time to Die’ on April 4th, and All the other top movies being released in 2021.
2021 will be a great year for Cine.
Good luck all Cine long term shareholders.
I am minded to agree @Hosai.
Warner Bros did Cinema a massive service releasing Tenet back on August 26 (Sept in parts of the US), without LA and NYC open. They lost money on it, as its only recouped $350m in ticket sales worldwide, but the production costs were $205m + marketing costs, and remember they only get a portion of those ticket sales. Ann Sarnoff, the CEO, said as much in an interview with Variety last month.
The longer these lockdowns in Europe last, and with LA and NYC still not open, the more likely Warner's will delay WonderWoman 1984 from its slated Xmas day opening until things are better. Realistically this is late Feb, or more realistically June/July time. Warner Bros took $821m for the original WonderWoman in 2017. It was a massive hit for them. This one was set to be bigger, a true billion dollar box office movie. They took a bullet for Tenet, they won't do the same for WW1984. It's simple economics. Show it in December-Feb, and recover (maybe) $4-500m or wait 5-6 months, and get your target $1 billion.
On another note, well done @NoFear. Mooky and Nisan will love that email you've sent them- they absolutely despise shorters, and their legal team's probably not too shabby either. Great work.
Quite possibly @mrzeroh.
Pennsylvania will be called for Biden later today. The market knows this. That wins Biden the election. He’s on course to win Arizona and Georgia is entirely possible. That’s nearly 300 electoral college votes. Beyond reproach. As we know, markets love certainty.
Good posts @Silver420 and @patiencebringsit. Positivity. Like it.
As a long term CINE holder, full disclosure, I love CINE, and i love movies, but not wanting to rain on anyone's parade, of the 13 Analysts ratings, 7 of them were issued pre Pandemic, when Cineworld/Regal cinema's were still open, and the world was much more normal than today. Of these five of them have price targets are up in the 300p sector. We're due a couple of newer price targets within the next couple of months, which will be interesting, and will be issued after the waiver renegotiation news.
I've got the 12 month price target (from today) at 120p. That's all cinema's open. and blockbusters showing month to month. Anything over that is gravy!
Of course, that's just my opinion. It, of course, pays to do your own research.
Hi @TheDove.
Sorry to hear that.
I also received an automated response from the FCA relatively instantly.
You can try this alternative email for the LSE.......
clients@londonstockexchange.com
It's really odd, because i rang up the London Stock Exchange and the receptionist confirmed that original email address for the rules and compliance dept. However, i'm sure the alternative email address will work for you.
Thanks, and Good luck
Hi @NoFear.
Thanks for the update re the action against Athanor Capital LP.
I have fired off an email to the FCA this evening along the lines of your post.
One small point for all the people cutting and pasting, in your template of my original draft letter to the LSE/FCA, one small part has been missed out after;
Dear Sirs, I wish to formally file a complaint against 888 Seventh Avenue, 21st Floor, New York...................
it seems that the Athanor Capital LP was cut out of your amended letter which should be input before the 888 Seventh Avenue, 21st Floor, New York.........
I would hate for people to go to all the effort, after all your effort, of getting their complaints in, and them not be registered.
Great work. I can just see some Damien Lewis aka Bobby Axelrod (Showtimes BILLIONS) hedge fund multimillion air, choking on his Skinny double Oatmilk Honey Latte with Starbucks Blonde Espresso in a few weeks when the complain get shown to him by one of his minions!!
ps @Doveman, hope you managed to get the email through to them. As @NOFEAR stated, i haven't had any bounceback on my email of yesterday to this address ; rulesandcompliance@lseg.com
Thanks guys, and Good luck.
Very true @RS2002. I'd forgotten about the CARES Act $200m due to Cine/Regal later this year, early next year. I bet, like you, Mooky hadn't!
There's another interesting aspect to the case of the big Cinema/Movie Theater chains, ownership.
Cineworld, the second largest movie chain in the world, is owned by Mooky Gredinger whose family have been in the Cinema business for the last 90 years! HIs grandfather set up the first one. Mooky has owned Cineworld since 1995. His family trust still owns 20% of this company. It's personal to him.
The same can be said for the third biggest cinema chain, Cineplex. This company is also owned by the founder, Lee Roy Mitchell and his brother JC. It's personal to him.
AMC, the largest Cinema chain in the world, are in huge trouble at the moment. They are not a family business. They were taken over by Wanda Group, a $100 billion Chinese company, in 2012. Wanda Group could help AMC out in a heartbeat. They haven't (as of yet). It's not personal to them, just business.
The family business factor is one that i have down in the plus column, it makes it more personal, more emotional for Mooky, and as many of us who are self employed or have their own business's have seen in life, when it's personal you just fight harder to succeed, and to keep what you've got, because, at the end of the day, it's down to you how well you succeed or fail.
Just my opinion, of course, but i believe CINE will prosper once again strongly in 2021, when the world feels more normal than it is now, and the massive list of top Blockbusters return to Cinema. Good luck all Long Term Cine holders