Member Info for DRB83

Wonder if they've heard of Escapeplex? Don't they use Twitter. Lol

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59694961?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=61bca6b3d299cd67a8112bdb%26UK%20records%203%2C201%20new%20cases%20of%20Omicron%262021-12-17T15%3A04%3A20.460Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:c904c328-13b2-4914-8e11-de2d1df033ca&pinned_post_asset_id=61bca6b3d299cd67a8112bdb&pinned_post_type=share

Has DA been issued his shares do we know. If not, that would be a great personal incentive to go silent on us. It's currently what is happening with OMI. I called it on the day of the RNS, options would be given at a future date. Obviously then the directors are inadvertently encouraged to let the SP slide. Is this what is happening with ncyt. If so, just give him his shares.

Or even better Val, a CEO of a £2.5bn company.

85% protection against severe illness. So Omicron does cause severe illness i.e hospitalisations. Even with a fully boosted population we will incur hospitalisations.

How many jabs do you need to protect against the cold, or a severe cold? Asking for a friend..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59694961?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=61bc9fb399991e76caa30401%26Booster%20could%20provide%2085%25%20protection%20against%20Omicron%20-%20study%262021-12-17T14%3A36%3A47.073Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:abf76705-e805-4754-9741-536a0f77763d&pinned_post_asset_id=61bc9fb399991e76caa30401&pinned_post_type=share

The bod really need to inject some life into this share.

People say the covid market is highly competitive. Agree, it does seem it and it's obvious why.

So, when we flip to Sepsis, C Diff, cancer, are they just as competitive, less or more. If less then you could argue that with the foundations and footprint we have built around the world during covid, we will be able to leverage those benefits moving into a lesser competitive market resulting in a bigger market share. Any thoughts?

Difference in Vax rates in London and rest of UK will be miniscule. London is the epicenter of the Omicron wave. You can either take note and use what reality is like in London to prepare for what your reality is soon to become or you can just bury your head in the sand.

Oh and 90% of people are prepared to take the jab, they don't need insults from you, we can only jab 700k per day.

Food for thought. A potential buyer will carry out due diligence. This will include reviewing future cash flows. Ncyt don't even know what the future cash flows are so both the buyer and ncyt will likely be going into negotiations some what partially sighted. I think we'll hear news of the strategy and forecast before any takeover imo

The general assumption is that it is only the SP that is struggling. The intrinsic value is sound, secure and way north of here. Once ncyt are forced to prove it, the market will react. By then the SP may be more than it is now. Who knows. Not that long to wait really.

The market currently thinks ncyt revenues are

FY21 £100m
FY22
Q1 £20m
Q2 £15m
Q3 £10m
Q4 £5m

What do you think the update in Jan will be like?

If ncyt won't do one why don't we fabricate a range.

Let's start with what we know. FY21 is £100m revenue, 40m EBITDA exc exceptional items.

Ncyt expected Covid revenues to drop off by 50%. That was before Omicron so let's factor that in to be a 30% drop off. So £70m in covid revenue.

It's difficult to forecast non covid revenue for obvious reasons but let's assume we maintain our headcount and other admin costs and manage to do £30m of non covid revenue but at a lesser EBITDA margin as I believe Covid is higher margin. So lets assume 30% margin for that £30m. Gives us total revenue of £100m with EBITDA at £37m in FY22.

Now we are going to have to do something with that pile of cash so let's assume we buy a non-covid business for £50m cash (5x IT-IS), Let's assume a £20m pa revenue and a £5m pa EBITDA originally but with our systems in place and synergies we increase that to £30m pa revenue and £10m EBITDA. We'll also assume 6 months of this will land in FY22. So now we have £115m revenue and £42m EBITDA.

By now the market sees we are not just a covid stock and starts to value us accordingly. 15 times EBITDA to start. So £630m mcap or £8.87 per share. But with about £80m in cash. So EV of £710m or £10 per share.

Now let's assume that we agree a deal regarding the dispute mid year. They pay half of the outstanding £60m and 50% of the obsolete stock. So £15m. That is a cash payment of £45m and we call it squits.

We then have to release the £41m revenue back to the accounts from Q1 and process a write off of £30m. So £11m upside.

We also have to reduce our stock write off from £30m to £15m so £15m upside.

Let's assume we put these adjustments through in FY21, so FY21 looks like: Revenue £111m EBITDA £34m (£8 + £26m).

FY22 looks like: Revenue £115m EBITDA £42m

Cash at end of year = £80m + £45m payment from DHSC = £125m

So based on FY22. With a PE ratio of 15 we would have a mcap of £630m or £8.87 per share and
A EV of £755m or £10.63.

I believe this to be possible but also very prudent as once the dispute is resolved this could open up so many doors to increase our revenue further.

A good starting point I feel. Anyone got anything to add.

Disagree in part John. The dispute is more like a ball and chain around our ankle as we desperately try to get our heads back above water. It has a lot to answer for. Was hoping we'd see the back of it in 2021. My end of year SP forecast was £8 but included a resolution. Oh well

PI100, protect shareholders interests. Yes, but shareholders may be seen as long termers therefore protecting their interest will be covered off in the statutory RNS releases such as half year and full year accounts. Therefore ncyt may be happy that they are protecting shareholder interests by growing the business which will eventually flow through to the bottom line which will eventually flow through to the market.

Also, ncyt may have a prudent valuation of themselves and monitor that against the market. If it falls outside of those internal valuations then they may be required to address the market. Baring in mind that the dispute is unknown and covid is unknown and non-covid is unknown means that anyone looking prudently at ncyt may value the company at where it is today or even a little lower.

My point is ncyt may believe that prudently they are well valued on the market and therefore believe they are doing enough to protect shareholders interests. What ncyt and the market are not accounting for is the potential (it's huge), unfortunately, until the dispute and the non covid forecast is produced then prudence wins.

Let's not ignore the fact that if Omicron does peak and drop off in the space of a couple of months in the UK, it will still take many months after that to tear through the world. We supply the world not just the UK. Since the drop off in DHSC revenue, the EU is just as big of a market for us. I suspect the US sales will grow also.

Also, covid isn't just going to stop mutating all of a sudden, especially if it feels threatened by vaccines and natural antibodies. It's designed to evolve and survive. Those here that think it will just quickly evolve into a cold and everything will go back to normal are very narrow minded imv. Flu has been evolving for 100+ years. Every year coming back slightly different and taking thousands of lives around the world. It's what they do. Natural instinct you could say.

I can't see why covid would be any different. If anything it appears worse. Several mutations can happen within the same year. The point is, we can't just take our foot off the gas once Omicron is dealt with. We're going to want to know if Covid, flu, avian flu and swine flu all get together for a gang bang and create the mother of all plagues. To do that we're going to need testing. Who is to say that by the time Omicron has done with us there isn't a new variant that takes us for a ride. No guarantees that one will be a cold.

Now whilst testing won't always be at these levels it will always be needed. Let's also not forget that we know ncyt is not just a covid stock. The market doesn't know because all ncyt RNS about (when they do) is covid. We have at least 2 rerate events coming.

1. Dispute resolution
2. Non-covid future realisation

GLA

PI100, let's for a minute stop looking at it from a PI perspective and start looking at it from a bod perspective. Now tell me why would the bod care what the SP is doing?

I hope the baby doesn't take it back from you Ken. That would be embarrassing. No wait. I do hope it does. Lol

Dribbles, does that make you 'Data jump the gun'. In all my years I've not heard of a cold hospitalising people never mind killing them. Put the word severe in front of it all you want but it's still a cold you're referring to. There becomes a point where you have to give something more sinister a different name, like the flu or Covid.

Could it be that there is a complete disconnect between reality and the market in terms of covid. No new PI's coming in, no II'S coming in. Only traders using TA.

At the end of November it closed at the 450 resistance and then slowly slid for several days before bouncing off the 100ma 305. Several blue days later is temporarily breaks the 367 resistance before failing at the 200ma 380. Today it has failed to bounce off the 367. If this goes down to the 315 zone then I fear the ncyt sp is being soley driven by traders using monthly averages and resistance/support lines. Let's see but one thing I know is that the SP has got absolutely nothing to do with what is going on in the real world. In the real world, ncyt's intrinsic value is increasing daily.

Yep, yet again it will take them several months to do anything about it. It's bad for PCR business as a whole. Who supplies them because maybe it's time for the suppliers to start exercising their corporate social responsibilities and validating their customers. Code of ethics and all that. Supply chain management. Whatever you want to call it. Suppliers now need to start asking questions and being accountable for supplying rogue traders.

Ogm4. Expect big orders on the run up to Christmas. Lots of customers won't want to be caught out so will be stockpiling in preparation for a busy few weeks.

How would new investors know about us.

No interviews
No broker notes
No RNS's

Are we just to expect investors to go and find all the information. Some will, many won't. Imagine being Inna sweet shop. You'll probably go for something you already know. If you want something new to try, you'll probably be swayed by the shiny packaging or the advertisement board. Your eyes will brush past ncyt and not take a second glance.

Ncyt's position is, we don't need to be one of the chosen few. Not yet. We have all we need for now. When the time comes we'll have enough cash to make sure we're on the display rack next to the till.

Then it's happy days for all. Until then we are just tagging a ride on this Covid wave.