Member Info for doze

Geopolitics doesn't get much discussion except by me trying to affirm GCM as a good intermediary. Is anyone slightly worried about it in a bifurcated west/east geopolitical world. I have always thought a licence removal unlikely as the legal battle would hold up development for Bengalis and compensation to GCM unilateral in nature probably not high. Maybe Bangladesh would just get on with the job though under PC's influence.

Political disharmony prevails but it is commendable that the press is allowed to report on it. I have not read anything that could politically support Phulbari as an immediate necessity but the benefit to Bengalis of OPM is obvious. The recent article by the main opposition https://www.newagebd.net/post/opinion/236165/threats-to-energy-security shows how he could be intending by writing to undermine the conclusion of the AL Alliance meeting where they voted to work together. I can hear Hasina who attended saying Phulbari could really help while the official opposition major on gas! PetroBangla need to be strong in their leadership and not be swayed by politics, it is a business and it needs coal and should set the priority without political interference. The Islamic left is not going to help their supporters by pandering to supporters. Strategy has to benefit Fx and GDP.

I had got the wrong end of the stick here; from the links the agenda may not have been pro Phulbari but the report on the meeting about working together I hope was Hasina putting her foot down iro the GoB digging themselves out of a pit by digging a pit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amir_Hossain_Amu

https://www.bssnews.net/news/190617

Amu much respected but anti capitalism I would think.

The township should start lobbying Hasina for OPM to start to keep Chowdry quiet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saber_Hossain_Chowdhury#:~:text=Chowdhury's%20father%20was%20Hedayat%20Hossain,Group%2C%20a%20conglomerate%20in%20Bangladesh.

Tax and contract terms can be negotiated/renegotiated to leave GCM with nothing so % of licence is no big deal to PC Hasina and co. A team with the need to keep costs down and maximise return will benefit PC and GoB. It makes no sense for those being paid to write their own cheques or set prices or for individual members of the 14 party alliance to be involved . GCM will negotiate so they don't end up with nothing by being good managers outside the usual GoB carry-ons. ( I hope ).

Tulip Siddiq Labour MP for Hampstead and Kilburn is a niece of the current Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina. There must be some liking of GCM through UK diaspora. PC have probably dealt with Tang in Malaya. PC/GoB in meetings together re Phulbari for many years-it counts for something.

Why not stick with a friendly bunch of corporates.

Whether a trade is as reported is not a reliable tell so I like to provide definition TST.

My .6701 buy flagged as a sell

Non communal= society pulling together (more central) rather than as present with ministers ruling their departments along their personal political leaning and favouritism divisive within the community. I have read in the links provided how the tendency prevents progress. I hope they heed the advice.

OPM will require cooperation across political divisions.

Gone through now after chatting with them; some error in instructions

Am having trouble buying with HL

It does seem an 'All aboard' agenda of some sort is at a decision stage, consultation over and voting to be done.

I know you think that GP but I say China does not like being the junior partner and a big infrastructure player could self-fund and move ROI away from PC over time if they lose control of the boardroom. I also think Bangladesh and PC will make sure the project is demonstrably going to benefit Bangladesh so will want to exercise maximum influence over commercial terms.

PC control is via the backing of Xi/China and imo will not be seen dealing with a big John Laing for instance as Xi likes to pull the strings and does make things happen which is good. I am not anti China as far as their vision and hard work is concerned. GCM is the shell for PC activities, they may not be the legal owner but the contracts make GCM the vehicle for channelling the revenue their way which is how they operate. Approval has to come if Bangladesh is to benefit from China.

I can see how matters have suddenly got worse for them then with interest on loans and the need to increase GDP to pay for their ambitious plans. I think we need to cut our cloth a little to fit our GDP too actually.

Electricity that is affordable is the big requirement for their needs. Smart Bangladesh needs to start with the basics.

It must be based on energy imports being the main product and examination of poor practice making the sellers nervous about being paid because no bail out for BPDB. UK users have had help recently putting up our debt but not causing hardship to our equvalent of BPDB. UK is more centralised and controlling?

Why is their debt crisis so big when we run a bigger deficit?

Bangla 36.6% 23/24 https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/economy/bangladesh/govt-debt-set-to-spike-over-next-two-fiscal-years

UK 97.5% end of Feb 24 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/march2024#:~:text=Public%20sector%20net%20debt%20excluding%20the%20Bank%20of%20England%20(BoE,less%20than%20the%20wider%20measure.

Interesting that a good outfit like this sees no opportunity. I presume GCM does not fit any brief but for me the message is GCM is a good place to put your money at the moment.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AMAT/strategic-review-and-special-dividend-c2zmr74gtm7dqz4.html

They want to give the go-ahead as a part solution to their problems but as I see it that was when the serious work began.

Liaise with Xi in China, liaise maybe with Modi re river transport, liaise with coal fired power stations and LNG users (capacity charges continuing), liaise over annual budget with Abul Hassan Mahmood Ali. Nasrul I take to be on board .

What about the eco lobby, I found this good research; https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1045235415000167

Moreover, the capitalist system contributes to the environmental stresses experienced by the vulnerable in locations such as Bangladesh. Capitalism's ‘spatial fixes’ have reduced the high level of environmental pollution that was previously experienced in the developed countries and has exported it to developing nations. The industrialization apparent in developing countries tends to be through those industries that are dirty and pollute. This is most obviously reflected in the export-oriented ship-breaking, textile, leather and tannery industries that are so central to Bangladesh's economic progress."

"As we noted earlier, however, even Foster et al. (2010, p. 71) perceive a role for ‘green accounting systems’ that can bring out the ‘irrationality of the system’. As such “new green accounting systems” could play a critical role in highlighting capitalism's contradictions and contributions to environmental degradation and the ecological rift, which may, in Foster et al.’s (2010) terms, allow a social and cultural revolution to “transcend the system.” We are convinced that environmental accountability is essential if the contradictions and irrationalities of the capitalist system are to be made visible. Such accountability must include the voices of the vulnerable, particularly those on the periphery of capitalism (the Global South), if they are to help challenge those with the economic power at the centre. In this way it may be possible to challenge the orthodox capitalist economics that has created human vulnerability and ‘ecological rifts’."

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1045235415000167

Phulbari on balance must not (and I don't think will) make pollution worse.

Added this to my workspace at the weekend intending to buy in today; pity.