The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
The PM is leaving MPs to their own devices until the vote. The pundits are going round in circles. It is no use believing in a fantasy future when past decisions of our leaders have relegated us in the global league tables. Without EU deal we will get picked to our bones like carrion.
It certainly is. What is worse is the EU can change its policies quite quickly if needs must but not at the suggestion of the UK in advance of trouble which would have averted a yes vote for brexit.
I voted Brexit but wish I had been on the losing side however I do think we have to leave to prevent a national humiliation. The Andrew Marr Show was implying the prime ministers office says there is a way out of the backstop but Raab says the EU has a veto over any withdrawal. (44 mins in https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0bsvmfr/the-andrew-marr-show-18112018 ) I hope that what will apply is cleared up in the final draft of the withdrawal agreement.
I must say it has been a good education on what history is forged out of.
My thoughts on the 38bn and partial customs union- we have been integrated into many cross border projects sharing in production and research since joining the European Economic Community in 1973. These are valuable partnerships and the ability to continue in them, if that is what the partial customs union buys is worth it. They could continue to grow and we might be included in new projects of mutual interest. If business ties started to wither it would be a serious setback for Europe.
Shaping up nicely for reasonably frictionless trade with the EU and no cliff edge and ability to cut our own trade deals. There is bound to be a cost for infrastructure due to more border checks(but at least not tariff barrier). I expect a tariff for services including financial ones if the status quo is to prevail in the city. N Ireland must be treated different as the only land border with free flow of unregulated goods possible. Smugglers paradise cannot be allowed!
If it is not kept frictionless I think the border staff would not cope undermining society.
Nice plans put forward for agriculture/meat/forest in the news.
My post of 20/7 could take place if the EU disintegrates meanwhile the EU backstop would enable any success in the North could be exploited by GB by seeding GB companies in Northern Ireland as required who would still remit profits to their shareholders in GB aswell as pay to the EU according to the customs union which would continue there. Seems we would get the best of both worlds. Forget the DUP, they would be irrelevant as cross party support would be given. This would ensure an Irish hard border and resumption of hostilities does not happen.
The UK would not be split up as Westminster would still be sovereign in N. Ireland.
That was quite exciting for you today. My account is not big enough and I lost a lot as I thought I might trying to make it before the new regs. I am hoping to do options but have got to source a willing company to give me an account.
If the EU can make a backstop which takes a position on a sovereign nation then I highlight that with the above which, with Eire's consent would make more sense than sticking with its EU option. They have voted before and were persuaded to have a second one which underlines the EU modus operandi. At the moment with Brexit the mandarins of the EU have no proposals because they are just watching us fall to pieces as we argue their case for them giving away more concessions. Re-ignite the Irish referendum issue as a counter offer if the Irish see fit to go along with it. Co-operation with EU on trade has been good but when it becomes a stifling bureaucracy something has gone wrong. The whole world wants environmental good practice- that does not require the EU.
I have a sensible backstop plan for Ireland. Move the customs border to the Atlantic.
This would mean the english speakers of Europe are one block. It would facilitate a "great" deal with the US. It would force the EU to do a good deal with the UK. It would lead to cultural harmony in Ireland with marked improvement in prosperity and dual jurisdiction for the population who could choose which one to live under and of course a right of employment over the Irish Sea.