Just heading out on the motorcycle AJP - I'll need to give that some thought - really hard to say, as we are just at the start of the curve. i think - to use a Donald Rumsfeld quote: "there are things we know that we don't know, known unknowns." BUT John Shaw & his team I'm almost certain do. On that basis, any number I suggest wouldn't be nearly as good as the number JS has in mind, I'm sure!
Just picked up 25000 at 10.29p. I was thinking about Itaconix product offerings again, and it is rare to be able to say that this is still very much the start of the upward curve. Product is being shipped and sold to substitute environmentally harmful ingredients in the markets served by Itaconix, which are huge. But crucially, like renewable energy, we know our environmentally beneficial products and ingredients will be around, being made, and sold for decades to come.
RE: ITACONIX —>NOURYON—>>UNILEVER04 May 2021 10:01
Lovely AJP. The more I read & research the more I like. The competitive advantage which has been built over years of research, hard work, and investment into the positioning of Itaconix is now reaping rewards.
Apologies if this is old info (from 2019) but I hadn’t seen it before and it’s a worthwhile read showing the inter connectivity of the industry and affirms once more the superb positioning of Itaconix within it.
*Innovative solutions that help our customers improve their products, become more competitive and sustainable, and uncover new business opportunities are central to how we work,” said Charlie Shaver, CEO of Nouryon. “As partnership is the key to success, we are very pleased to add more organizations to our Imagine Chemistry network, including Unilever, one of our key customers.”*
RE: Solvay products linked to ITX01 May 2021 15:58
I see that AJP - massive. On my musings below I made a serious flaw: our ingredients are only a small % by weight of finished product (does anyone know?) - so I stand probably corrected on factory space pressure.
RE: Solvay products linked to ITX01 May 2021 10:12
Great sleuthing work AJP. In one of the Solvay sheets I see a hint of revenues to tonnages: https://www.solvay.com/sites/g/files/srpend221/files/tridion/documents/PR-20171016-Eureco-Bussi-EN.pdf Which gives ca. €250-€400/T. But I have no idea how that price point relates to our Revenues/T for the different polymer products we produce. Hopefully it is a lot more! It is meaningful though in that it attaches a physical quantity to a revenue, from a chemical ingredients player in the industry. €200M/500.000 T = €400/T. The tonnage is a lot of product and equates to nearly 10000T/week. That’s a lot of trucks. At those tonnages Solvay are probably moving a lot of product - across all their product range - by barge/ship/rail.
So my question is: what physical tonnages are we geared up for from our own factory, how much demand (tonnage) can that satisfy, and how much demand (tonnage) will need to be satisfied through IP licencing?
It feels like our factory in NH (31000 sq. ft. can soon become too small!) is the product roadmap validator, producing NPD (new product development) formulations/initial volumes & trusted licenced partners picking up bigger volumes.
But I may be complete wrong! All food for thought and IMO.
19. Leases The Group leases all its facilities from which it operates. The headquarters, production, and main offices are located in Stratham, NH, USA. The facility is approximately 31,000 square feet and the lease expired in September 2019. Management renewed the lease for a 5-year extension, through to September 2024.
DD77 I know feeling - im the same. A slightly higher average though lol! A while back I said I had my eyes on a target of 20p by 2022 I think. That is still reasonable I believe and the way the momentum has been going it might arrive sooner than that. A key metric for me is where the company sees its capacity utilisation now and near term. Given everything that is going on, they could be marching very quickly towards 2/3 capacity utilisation, which would equate to Annual sales of $10M. So I am eager to hear or pick up signals or a sniff of operational capacity increasing. For the detectives out there, that could be new kit getting ordered, additional premises/warehousing/new hires etc. Long story short, I’ll review again when we hit 20p. just my opinion & everyone needs to form there own.
Thordon those numbers look similar to what patt was saying over on ADVFN. A bit optimistic in my book, but if we go for an EV of half of that postulated by 2025, we are still on a x10 valuation from where we are now. Happier of course if patt‘s x20 is correct!
Yes EyeOB. Also just listened to John Shaw‘s interview from today. Very very interesting and more exciting times ahead. For someone who is by nature refreshingly cautious and does not overhype to say „certainty of growth“, that to me means he is certain 2021 numbers will be/are showing significant growth. I‘m now contemplating a $10M revenue number for 2021 which equates to 2/3 of current plant capacity. Certainty of growth also means they are/have extensive product roadmaps lined up.
Yes sure feels like something. Ownership is pretty interesting: 48.78% owned by Polonsky family members & their foundation. Premier Miton also in their with 5.31% (since Nov'19). Maybe there is light at the end of the litigation tunnel which has dragged on - those things always end of getting settled/sorted & the company has been planning for such. So I'm putting in another £5k. The dividend has been solid through all the ups (not many!) and downs, which is some comfort.
Yes interesting we are getting a podcast so soon after 2020 results presentation. Given EVERYTHING that is happening, he may be a harbinger of good news - or an indication thereof. I’d love to hear an update on VP Ops activities.
I’ll take those numbers AJP! & looking forward to the next update from John. What is really really exciting here is that we’re only just moving off the start of what will be a great growth curve. Here’s hoping for a great week. ATB
Hi AJP, I think, from what I can see, the deferred consideration was from 2017-2020. So that ship has sailed. For 2021 it all looking very positive isn’t it? Looking at 2020 full year numbers we need to add $3.5-$4M onto the 2020 number to around around $7M annual revenues to be at breakeven level with current cost structure and GM level of 35%. Given John Shaw’s confident outlook that seems highly for 2021. But I’m not bothered if it’s mid 2022. He did mention, though, during the 2020 results presentation that GM by product can vary widely, from 20 % up to 60%. Hopefully we’re selling loads of the 60% GM stuff!
Hi AJP, my interpretation is there is no additional deferred compensation due up to FY20 inclusive. Here is the key line:
“In addition, deferred performance related consideration will be payable to the Itaconix Stockholders, subject to the achievement of certain growth targets for the calendar years 2017 to 2020, based on 50% of incremental annual net sales above $3 million in 2017 and in excess of the prior year for 2018 to 2020 inclusive.”
Looking forward to an onwards and upwards trajectory this year and beyond. Will take out my original investment at some point and leave the rest for a long free ride.