Member Info for dougb189

Chapter 11 is indeed USA.

And which jurisdiction were the loans directly affiliated to COPLA (not COPL) have these loans under..

Positive though would be any regulation that then forces the company to make a statement to address the multiple rumours.

Chapter 11 can take 6 months. And shares can be suspended for that period.

The 45M transaction was to several buyers hence no notification.

Worth noting that the previous RNS for a TR1 was from the same bh, who notified the market they were holding 50M, which was acquired from their fee for an earlier bond conversion. They took the conversion fee just as the sp plummeted & then sent in a TR1. They then failed to notify the market when they sold these shares. The next notification 2 weeks later, is that they again hold more shares from another conversion payment and so it can be reasonably assumed that the new shares will just as quickly go the way of the recently posted TR1 for 50M.

I’m guessing there will be a ‘grey area’ in any company’s collapse, when the responsibility of the bod then moves from the shareholder across to the debtors.

Suspecting that it is perhaps not as black & white, as having to wait till administration is finally called.

The removal of ‘AM the villain’ was then perhaps the start of proceedings to try get bankruptcy administration (assuming imv that Anavio file for Chapter 11 under new management).

Strongly suspecting Chapter 11,

but good luck to all IF Anavio are then seen to be involved with any prearranged external agreements,

albeit imv IF they were of this ilk, they’d likely then have already sold significant number of bonds, which is not the case, hence imv ‘AM the villain’.

That announcement was always questionable but it wasn’t exactly out-right deception… Imo.

After several RNS’s had earlier been proven to Be deception eg. Dec 2020 ‘there will be no equity raise’ which was then completed a few days later, and the Aug 2021 ‘we have a well flowing at 750+ bopd (from poor memory) and was then seen 2 months later (after Tiburn found the WY O&G production figures) that the well production figures did not match the official numbers, so peeps were already fully aware of AM’s extravagant pen-manship ie it was fairly clear that by the time of the arrival of the Jan 2022 RNS, that anything AM posted was known to be suspect.

AM then posted 1.9B bopd and which RS then reduced to 998M bopd with the explanation that only 10 to 20% might be recoverable. It was rather just typical AM. Believing in his own capabilities. His poor management skill-sets then totally decimated any value in the find.

Could Anavio successfully then argue that removal of AM was the only way forward. And many peeps would agree.

Trujack, the big surprise was that some ‘serious’ LTH on here consistently posted “NT to buy” which is then nonsense when taking a macro-look at the available equity.

Thanks Yankee, as per earlier ‘no sympathy’ which stands true all for the gung-ho cowboy traders but is that there are still some good sincere traders who benefit from a quick grounding in the equations. Good luck bud with this fight. The recent thoughts are that Anavio removed AM at same time as the project was going south : hedges removed which was not needed IF at c.2500 bood plus the revised 2024 predicted average c.2000 bopd, as removing AM then removed the ‘villain’ in any possible COPL bankruptcy. I’d be very cautious on how Pi’s treat Anavio. IF they can get a judge to accept bankruptcy then Pi’s should benefit.

CoplH, as per my earlier ‘the minimum conversion fee is $140,000 plus interest payments, as taken from the March / April RNS’s (the last notifications directly & indirectly linking payment to numbers of bonds owed conversion fees. Less of the pedantics bud, everyone knows it’s a train wreck yet you profusely post almost as if gloating.

“..Seem To Be Selling Them @ A Considerable Loss ….” & “..The more that PIs buy at this level, the less Anavio will be able to get..”

Pi’s are still 100% clueless on how the bonds operate.

$140,000 is the minimum conversion fee payment on each bond as per March & April RNS’s. The fee will now have increased with interest rising every Q.

Each bond cost the BH $160,000 & is then converted at the conversion price, which is currently 0.15p.

IF the sp drops to 0.075p (-50%) then the BH only get $80,000 (-50%) from selling the bond.

Currently sp is at 60% of 0.15 so BH will pick up c.$96,000 in addition to the lucrative conversion fee c.$140,000 (plus the interest rates increase every Q). The so can therefore go as low as 0.03p and the BH still breaks even.

During 2023 & it was a fair-to-risky bet as Anavio were still holding. The high risk was all down to AM’s mismanagement. Now it looks as if Anavio have had to implement drastic measures to survive, including a Pi wipe-out, as there’s no way even mug punters could now buy the additional c.16 Billion shares when fully diluted at latest conversion rate.

Numerous on this bb who were upset last year every time the bond equations were highlighted. Zero sympathy but interested in (1) the technicals of the field & (2) interested in how Anavio will get out of this but also interested in (3) at what point the CLN’s turned into death spiral, which imv was AM’s paperwork to the market.

Made a few pennies on your Hur after following the judge and his earlier comments on the bod. Got in c.7p and vacated c.12p albeit the sp carried on further north.

Been waiting for 0.07p here as pure sentiment. Was the initial buy-in price May 2020 prior to it rising to c.0.26p

Dej-vu maybe but its still a wee bit too toxic.

Hopefully Mick the EV figure is still valid. There was though several peeps posting of ‘debt $100M’ albeit those peeps seem to be more focused on emotional inputs rather than any actual best endeavours to assist here.

That EV value c.$56M debt can then be broken down. And it might then be as earlier discussed, that the ‘restructuring’ includes selling one of the fields, & so removing the SL, which might then perhaps see the BFU return to c.1400bopd at 2000psi, sufficient enough to then cover the c.$16M that the BH have spent on the outstanding bonds.

£44.78M

Taken from the last Interim Sept 30, 2023

“..Canadian overseas is now just £1M Mcap or roughly $2M Canadian dollars…”

which is only applicable for 1.3B shares..

Certainly worth keeping an eye on bud, but still looking a wee bit too toxic.From earlier, the 50M Atlas declared on a TR1 were NOT from a bond conversion but were from a bond conversion fee + interest. There’s a hooomungous difference.

Atlas raised the Tr1 paperwork to announce to market that there is a ‘significant holder’ and then immediately sold, without then raising the TR1 paperwork for going below notification threshold. So a possible ramp via the TR1 to then offload onto mug punters.

‘And Atlas are still holding 260M so not expecting administration’.

They can only post a TR1 so many times, prior to peeps realising it is a P&D. A not so subtle side-shuffle now sees Atlas release their latest ‘significant holding’ on Sedar. And still there are some peeps who are again getting fooled into thinking they are holding.

So how many converted bonds does it then take to generate fee payments of $1.2M / $1.1M ? This was the fee for 5 bond conversions until quite recently and as the interest rate is Not on an exponential scale it can be reasonably assumed that the $1M payment in shares, are still for 5 converted bonds fees.

Needs to be verified but it now appears that each bond conversion fee is owed c.$200k (the above fees being likely owed for 5 bond conversions) with each bond fee now generating c.60M shares.

Mr.S, sadly its not interesting, it is just a simple pump & dump.

Chapter 7 is for kaput. Chapter 11 is for ongoing concern.

Bankruptcy in either case, is not given to villains.

Bod need to come up with explanation of the missing funds from most recent raises.

PK is therefore a Chapter 11 specialist.

That suggests company is seeking administration, with regards to bankruptcy whilst believing it is still a ‘viable going concern’ and so ‘maximising recovery’, which will likely involve debt restructuring (hence why the SL are perhaps making things v.difficult).

Limited experience of Chapter 11 but the judge will get the company (bod = Anavio) to sit down with the Senior Lender and devise a restructuring : possibly some partial sell-offs &/or possibly some new financial package, that could then see the old debt written off via the bankruptcy. As this is being driven by Anavio then it suggests that they might supply the next batch of ‘senior debt’.

Sadly, the ‘industry standard’ for Chapt.11 is for the existing shares to often be written off but on some occasions, the current 100% equity then gets allocated 10% of the new equity base. Eg. new finance arrives, say perhaps $20M, which then gets allocated 90% of the new equity base. The bod may then allocate the remaining 10% to the existing shareholders but often, will allocate it to themselves.

A difficult scenario for existing Pi’s.

Should though Pi’s then pick up 10% of the new equity, then imv that could be on a similar value to the current mkt cap of c.£2M to £3M but with better prospects as a ‘going concern’. The downside is that the bod could & often does, wipes out existing Pi’s in addition to wiping out the old debt.

Without a guarantee from the bod, then Pi’s could make it difficult for the bod by highlighting the rather nefarious business practices that COPL have employed. The judge won’t consider bankruptcy for villains.

Pi’s might have to strike a deal early with the bod, perhaps verifying that they can pick up a % of any revised outcome. Failing any guarantee then Pi’s could easily feed the judge plenty of incriminating evidence. Good luck peeps.

Thanks Tiburn, that’s appreciated.

I’m guessing that the new director is being flown in to either oversee a partial sell, likely the Fed Deep or to oversee the current engineering on the BFU. I was quite dubious since early days on SWP’s skill-sets.

As per your thinking on the new long term time-frames for the bonds (include that the bod can’t cash them in for 12 months) and it does suggest a long play.

Hopefully they get that (imo) engineering sorted but keep one eye open for… shenanigans. The lack of any engineering update, sadly points towards a possible probability of the latter. Take care bud and limit yourself to participating on this bb. All will agree its toxic & ultimately affects sound reasoning.

Earlier than February I guess, as there appears to be a decent amount of flak being sent out to the regulators which will then need addressing… hence directing any correspondence to your local MP and only ‘cc’ the regulators, should then see a swifter response.

SL likely benefits from going into Chapter 7 but the BH could then offer the judge additional liquidity, such that the field still produces, which would then put it into Chapter 11, which is a risky place for senior debt.

90% of the MC but business is inclusive of EV, which then gives SL a heftier weighting.

Like, with a chainsaw kind of punishment ?!

Anavio certainly have control of the board but it kinda makes sense that they get together..

Chapter 7 perhaps, IF Anavio have a buyer lined up with a pre-agreed price, otherwise Anavio would likely lose out on payment coverage for the outstanding $21.4M in bonds. The SL might go down this route.

Chapter 11 and IF the judge believes that the business is honest, hard-working & worth saving, the judge may then allow the debt to be restructured. And that then puts the SL debt into fairly serious jeopardy such that they disapprove.

Worth perhaps a wee bit more reading into, but simpler to wait on news tomorrow. Good luck to you all.

Technical glitch could be waxing but I thought this was overcome when the flowing valves were upgraded to pumping-flowing, specifically to overcome waxing. As was the addition of heating oil ?

As per several peeps on here and suspect that the GGS has again raised a technical glitch.

Hopefully though not another bbq. There were 7 such incidents reported in the 2022 annuals.