Member Info for dougb189

I took it as a positive Stas as the SAG (?!) chaps/chappesses were very likely tied into confidentiality agreements.

Then deemed it as worth a ‘wild’ flutter after seeing strong buying all day and then some support at 0.1p

Had suspected that if it was dead in the water, then would have expected to see a lot more selling.. as word got passed via the grapevine, so to speak.

Was then 7 significant sells throughout the day & hopefully this was the last of the recent Atlas (till next week!).

Guessing your reps are effectively now under ‘house-arrest’ ?

I stand corrected Steve. Cheers.

With your earlier point though I’d once again disagree (wild triple-shot sessions at costa!) :

As I reckon, THE big problem was simply ego and greed.

Had he stayed at 57% then the 2023 field development costs,

Jan $4M + Mar $14.8M + Sept $3M

would have been obtained at a far higher sp and with only 57% reqd.

Which I reckon would then have been survivable.

It’s perhaps a similar problem to us Pi’s. I know I have been guilty on several wild occasions.

Steve, that’s a no.

COPL only paid c.$19M for Cuda.

Cuda’s debts of c.$70M were then lost to its creditors.

Always thought it was a bad move on AM’s part, having Cuda’s creditors take such a massive loss..

Surprisingly it was COPL’s quiet partner who then originally assisted in opening up Wyoming (in partnership with Chesapeake, I vaguely remember?)

Would CNOOC therefore be able to shed any light on the technicals..

“… No doubt someone else will have a go after COPL's demise..”

And so far, the field has cost.. ?

1. Atomic Senior -$40M

2. Cuda -$70M (some related to Alberta)

3. Copl -$135M

Too deep a commitment perhaps as an O&G development?

“…I still think I believe in the asset sham, but it needs a new management, more expertise, and a lot of cash to get the oil out…” Which is perhaps similar to what the creditors might think.

The SL and the BH appear to have lost total confidence in AM and I also suspect a loss of confidence with SWP. If this part-time Pi could feel uneasy with SWP’s earlier performances, inclusive of the very late recognition of what 10,000psi does to B&Q plastic tubing, then it’s perhaps no surprise at all that SL threatens to walk away & BH are now looking for an independent engineering report.

Which then leaves the question, is it salvageable ?

Guessing that the suggested $10M loan (with or without Pi participation) might then be used as a rough guide to try getting the GGS operating.

There may or may not be complex legislation issues then arising. But it isn’t illegal being an incompetent, which is what the historical data consistently points to. The Pi’s though could possibly argue that the incompetence was in part tied into malevolent practices (certainly deceptions). And again there is good historical data.

It might then be in the best interests of the creditors to acknowledge that Pi’s have a significant leaning on any possible judge’ments, should any party seek administration. The judge will then not entertain bankruptcy proceedings on a company previously run by a villain.

IF there is then a salvageable solution to the GGS, it’s likely then interest of the creditors to then cut some slack with the Pi’s. IMO.

Best scenario ? & perhaps a Chapter 11 which sees SL + BH get together with any new engineering inputs who can then resolve GGS (or just return field to its original metrics) say for $20M funding.

The restructured debt of $135M then picks up 90% of the new equity arising from the above $20M funding. And occasionally Chapter 11 then sees the other 10% being allocated to the previous shareholders.

If the SL & BH get together to prevent total loss of $135M ? & it possibly hinges on the western field actually having an interested play as suggested in the RS report & backed-up by the reported interest by JV.

Worth a quick read bud :

‘….Part of the attractiveness of Chapter 11 is that it is relatively easy for a foreign company to become a Chapter 11 debtor. A company merely needs to “reside or [have] a domicile, a place of business, or property in the United States”. The property prong of the eligibility criteria is particularly broad as there is no particular threshold or minimum amount of assets that are required. Bankruptcy courts that have considered the issue have found that even a minimal amount of property, such as the funds a prospective debtor has in a lawyer’s retainer account, in the US is acceptable.

Another important attraction of Chapter 11 is that management remains in control of the company and the debtor continues to control its assets and run its operations as a debtor in possession (DIP), except in extraordinary circumstances, such as fraud or mismanagement of the debtor. This is distinguishable from some countries like Canada and the UK where a court-supervised monitor is typically installed when a company files an insolvency case or in other jurisdictions where an administrator or trustee is appointed to run the company until it is sold or liquidated.

Upon a Chapter 11 filing, a debtor immediately benefits from bankruptcy’s automatic stay, which provides an injunction against actions against the debtor on a purportedly worldwide basis. The automatic stay gives the debtor breathing space so it can focus on the restructuring and thus, all creditor actions against the company outside of the bankruptcy proceeding must cease –…..’

And occasionally, the restructuring then sees the original equity holders take a % of the new revised equity…

PJ, the debt all done with COPLA, outwith of Canada.

Suspecting that the equity raise done at 0.15p will now be cancelled. Anavio / Atlas have recent form fir cancelling financial packages at the last minute & then supplementing a deal with harsher conditions.

Guessing also that the amount needed to resume GGS will be in the region of the $10M earlier requested.

Counterparty enquired of their prospective partner’s debt ?

Then queried how $130M was used in converting a field with avg. 1400 bopd at 2000 psi, into a field that now produces 1000 bopd at 10,000 psi ?

Then further queried prospective partner’s working relationship with the regulators in addition to working relationship with financial supporters inclusive of shareholders. The cascade of dominos effect leading to an au revoir. Via an abattoir.

Reading between the line of RNS & bh looking for £10m which covers an independent engineering report. Can’t see the bh going ahead with $2.5M placing at 0.15p as they stand to immediately lose c.$1.5M. Guessing a small delay and a revamped placing at $10M which likely includes the SL taking a small share. $130M is worth the small $10M hit. The sp though will then be at c.0.01p which would generate 100B shares unless the available reverse split of 1000:1 is used & so only 100M shares arising from a $10M loan (superseding all other credit notices, hence SL & BH).

A Chapter 11 might then see the same RS of 1000:1 and which occasionally then sees the previous shareholders take a smaller stake eg.10% of the new equity..

“…dougb I think you make the classic mistake of believing everything you read in the RNS as being correct and factual..”

Stas, i know you have a fairly sharp memory so just allow me to remind you, of at least 3 posts where i stated that courtesy of the lies AM had posted on the RNS, that i never participated in watching any of his video promotions. Not a single one.

The same was generally true of all the following RNA’s.

I am though currently very interested in understanding what happened to the GGS, so although having skimmed read tonight’s RNA i was comfortable that my initial thoughts that Anavio may or may not have operated in Pi’s interest but that operating with AM that they would be covered on any legal aspects.

I would go so far as to state that Anavio appear to have obfuscated the primary focus (GGS) to happily entertain some peeved off shareholder group who, imv, are waisting time chasing shadows.

The shareholder group asked for accountability and they have now been given said accountability. It then makes for embarrassing reading, or just plain painful for LTH & that Anavio acted within the regulations. The mismanagement and the 5 consecutive raises was not of their making.

Guessing that the shareholders group might be better off changing tack, from looking for someone to blame, to perhaps enquiring what the technical difficulties are. And could they be overcome..

“…In addition to the $135 million of secured obligations which take priority over equity an orderly formal restructuring proceeding would require a super priority loan of approximately $10 million, putting equity investors of COPL even further "out of the money". As such, the steps taken by the Board (including the recent hiring of an independent engineering consulting firm) were designed to give COPL an opportunity to become more viable…”

Looks to be a request for $10M which then possibly gives access to an independent engineering solution…

With $135M at stake, guessing that Anavio will be taking pole position (SL likely comfortable with a firesale) to try recoup ?

No explanation though of why the GGS has failed ?

“..Does this include warrants, where the bondholder has to pay COPL for the issue of the share…

No, the warrants were not included. The additional c.16B shares was a f@g packet calculation from the remaining 107 bonds at 0.15p plus the conversion fee for each bond c.$200,000. The warrants are then an additional 1.3B at the same price.

Worth keeping an eye on the warrant price of 0.15p as IF this is indeed all one big dilution exercise/scam from Anavio & Atlas (both have detailed history of this) then should it suddenly arise that the GGS does operate, then the 0.15p and its 1.3B warrants, will create a very strong resistance line.

As per Gengi’s positive thinking, then IF the GGS is indeed found to be ‘repairable’ then yes, there will be significant buying. The 1.3B warrants will then need rinsing, ie yet more “NT to buy” posts at 0.15p imv.

Perfectly feasible.

Can you imagine what would happen to the sp IF the bod stated they had sorted out the GGS and it was flowing now at 2000 bopd ? All the LTh and their complaints will simply get washed out by the next batch of Pi’s.

Nothing guaranteed with Copl.

Fully diluted at today’s conversion rate of 0.15p and using fee of c.$200,000 per bond conversion and a rough guesstimate is an additional 16B shares.

These require serious mug punters though, so unlikely to get rinsed.

There was an excellent pic posted on one of the TG’s that then showed all the bond conversions in the last year. It could then perhaps be cross correlated with RNS’s to determine how many more interest payments/ conversion fees were possibly still outstanding.

At a rough guesstimate it could be argued that the recent 300M+ shares were then obtained from fees for 6 bonds..

Which is quite horrific.

The breakeven figure of 0.03p was from the earlier conversion fees of c.$140,000 per bond converted. The payment will now have increased with the additional interest gained.

Therefore not an accurate figure but it gives the Pi the fundamental basics when determining just how low the sp can actually go, before the BH start any losses.

Trying to decipher the attached Canadian link to shorts,

And best interpretation is that 350,000 shares costing CAN $5,400 amounted to c.3.6% of trade volume.

Looking at IG and can see that similar 4% are short,

And that going short at a similar value to the above, eg.£3,500 a point, then gives the punter the equivalent of 350,000 shares.

At c.£3,500 a point, December punter/s are then c.£350 up ?

And had peeps then used the same metrics and taken TW’s advice at 26p, they would now be c.£91,000 in the blue…

£3,500 a point at 26p would though perhaps have been too risky, for if it then rebounded to earlier 32p ceiling, ie. a 7 point rise, it would generate a £24.5k loss but guessing that in addition to a trailing stop, Pi’s could then have been able to load up any initial short, such that by the time it dropped to 16p or 6p they could comfortably afford £3,500 a point.