Member Info for dougb189

‘..strange they took the extra after all this time..’ which then imv hints of (A) a conclusion in development being arrived at &/or (B) it gives TL a controlling interest IF as expected, a 3rd party then takes 50% of BOIL’s interest.

A ‘conclusion’ possibly arriving soon & which now sees Horta in a meeting tomorrow with an oil refinery developer, prior to returning to TL next Wednesday, either empty handed or fingers-crossed, with some upbeat news to deliver.

And/or the recent developments with TG now having 40% it then hints that there’s a possible controlling interest being sought by TL. That possibly they can then offer to potential Sunrise developers some additional acreage inclusive of a well at 100% COS. The revised prospects of nearly 6.6Tcfg (Sunrise + Chudd.) plus additional 2.1Tcfg (Chudd’s unrisked NE) would then likely pull in a major punter, possibly Japan.

Always felt that TG taking extra 15% would then be reciprocated in kind.

Today was as expected, with the 3rd iteration of signature swapping, not affecting the market. I do suspect though that discussions on new oil refineries might heat up the action.

The lack of decent internet in TL,

then makes Charlie’s post on TG all the more impressive:

‘..lots more peeps from TL are logging into BOIL’s facebook page..’

20.01.2024 ABC News :

“..Joaquim Fonseca's daily life depends on the internet. So the IT professional, based in Timor-Leste's capital Dili, has a problem.

"Every day, somehow, the internet fails," he told the ABC.

"Downloading small files is difficult. Even downloading a page to read the news [is hard]."

It is a long-running issue in Timor-Leste.

The country sits only 700 kilometres north-west of Darwin but its internet speed and capacity are in another world.

According to the results of research conducted by UK broadband provider Cable, Timor-Leste has the fourth-slowest internet in the world, sitting just in front of Afghanistan, Yemen and Syria..”

Are you Air Force, Eddy… heard all these guys get digs in the Sheraton ?!

The suffering from the TL youth is centred on the country’s internet systems being graded as 4th slowest in the World ; after Afghanistan, Yemen & Syria.

Yet the good news is, that the previous government set up a joint programme with Oz, called the Timor-Leste South Submarine Cable System connecting TL with Oz, which is due to be implemented this year.

With a fibre-optic cable running across the Trench.

Well done Shouston, nice to see some peeps riding that gas wave. Was intrigued with the metrics, which I believe was a ‘mediocre’ discovery of 0.01% gas & that it takes 0.3% to be economical. It then suggested that it was a retail favourite with many taking close interest. Then seen that there’s a lot of liquidity floating around ; was estimated the average punt was £2k, so not too shabby when the profits of that go back into the small cap market.

lol, so then hoping for a likewise ‘mediocre’ (700% ?!) RNS here, perhaps highlighting progress on developments centred on Sunrise, or holy moly & bee jeeezus (in lieu of the Pope's expected visit) a JV centred on Chudditch.

Excellent punter reaction on HE1 centred on a mediocre RNS which shows just how much liquidity is available to small cap retail favourites.

With some decent updates hopefully arising soon then we should easily exceed that resistance point reached off the back of Robbie’s efforts.

Lol, but no bud, as I’d looked at Japan’s LNG routes, primarily off the back of Biden’s latest threats to jeopardise LNG exports.

The GOM supplies about 40% of EU gas requirements, which obvs then creates an interesting week for Horta currently in Europe but I was looking at the Alaska productions : Japan already has a supply chain set up for LNG from Alaska’s Cooke Bay but there was talk of an additional supply being fed from the north of Alaska. This then appears to be most at risk from Biden. Hence do suspect that the japs are keen to expand their supply chain from more reliable sources eg. TL. Fingers crossed bud & Horta then pulls his out. Finger!

Charles Brown overseeing the onshore drilling of 3 wells.

https://www.timorresources.com.au/

https://en.tatoli.tl/2023/07/26/timor-resources-will-announce-results-of-onshore-exploration-this-year/16/

Horta’s week m

Monday…focused on O&G Timor Resources

Tuesday… focused on O&G Baron Oil

Wednesday… focused on an O&G oil refinery developer

Just saying.

Nice coincidence that Gusmao is entertaining the Oz defence ministry whilst Horta is having meetings with the designers & developers of the recent Angolan oil refinery!

Should there then be any substance behind Horta’s meeting with Glencorp other than just window-shopping, might then raise the question of where does TL believe they can source the funding…

Nice coincidence.

Cloud., lol. Well spotted.

I realised a few minutes after posting. I was attempting some multi-tasking with trying to work out, that if one had similar profit (£200k) but kept in a non-ISA account, what were the taxes?

subtracting max CGT at 20%

(15% if income + gains total less than £50k).

Shares profit £200k - 20k (investment cost in a non-ISA shares) - 12k tax relief = £168k being taxed

£168k at 20% CGT, loses £33.6k in tax

But still gives £166.4k (from 200k) so not too shabby…

Thanks Filthy, that’s the caffeine free version of next week.

I do need to cut down on the costas.

CTC, if you bought $20k worth of shares via an ISA, it doesn’t matter how much profit you then make, it is all tax free.

eg. you purchase 20M BOIL shares at 0.1p for £20k, and tomorrow the shares are then 1p, you have yourself £80k if profit, which is tax free.

eg. 1st ISA was a decade ago & was then £11k only.

Bought some LGO & 4 months later was sitting with £110k in my ISA, which could then be used for any purpose.

I wouldn’t have put Chudditch front & centre stage next week.

That accolade will likely be focused on Horta’s life-long ambition of having their own TL refinery. And IF that then gets accomplished, will then see Greater Sunrise being most prominent & possibly supplemented by Chudditch.

For Chudditch to take centre stage, would likely involve us having a successful outcome, possibly either having a pipeline to Darwin or FNLG, such that Chudditch supplies the means to build a refinery for Sunrise. This though doesn’t correlate with what appears to be happening at the moment.

What is happening, is that Horta is in direct talks with a company accredited with the recent build of the new Angola refinery. Which is then immediately prior to Horta appearing on BBC’s Hardtalk… so does Horta talk then of his successful partisan exploits from several decades ago (very likely) &/or does he bring it into the 21st Century & perhaps correlates a similar victory over Woodside’s evil witch Megan ?? So, fairly unlikely for the latter but the former is old news. Could we then see an update to Horta’s life-long struggle ?

It should be an interesting week but not convinced it’s centred on Chudditch. Albeit we should benefit… biggly.

‘KBL’ is the name referred to for the US consultants who were involved with Gemcorp on the designing of the Cabinda oil refinery. Currently trying to get more data on KBL as I thought TL were considering a modular design for a refinery.

Any link / recommendations Filthy from KBL, US design specialists ?

A ‘bigger kid comes along’ and Shares our sweets,

as perhaps by the Allenby example, where Boil retain 30% and the bigger kid then picks up 30%.

Maybe, for the cost of a cheap drill.

A lot of good forums picking up on senior army chaps repeatedly emphasising the need for EU to prepare civilians to start thinking of possible hostilities. In the UK & our political incumbents are not noted for their dexterity but I’m guessing that one of the first moves in any preparations would be energy reserves. Its got me thinking that Dunrobin might actually come to the fore.

Suspect Pepe., that 0.7p is a ‘quick’ estimate, ie. if Sunrise comes good (there’s meetings next week) then I’m guessing that for another O&G player to then make a quick take-over offer before we even touch the field (but after Sunrise route to market is announced) that it might then be around 0.7p which is on the low side.

In a quick buy-out, I’d tend to use the Bod’s shares figures : Andy Yeo then has almost 200M & so a minimum price of 1p then only sees him with £2M, which is a wee bit dire imo considering the years involved. 2 - 3p would likely see a reaction.

Allenby Capital Update 24 Jan 2024

“..Our risked valuation for the Chuditch project is US$190m (0.765p at

£1=US$1.25). This assumes a farm-down in Baron’s interest to 30.0%, GPOS (geological

probability of success) risking and project valuation quotients ranging from US$1.3/boe

to US$2.5/boe. Our success case Chuditch valuation is US$683m based on US$5.0/boe.

These adjusted valuations reflect the new post assumed farm-out from 37.5% to 30.0%..”

Risked valuation will still be a big variable inclusive of unknown route to market, so possibly via FLNG or piggy-back onto Sunrise, which then only needs 50km of plumbing. Sunrise possibly kicking off quite soon, as TL have meetings next week with financiers/developers who recently put together new oil refinery plant in Angola, complete with marine docking. Should then see reduction on risked evaluation, improved volumetric cut-offs & so corresponding increase in value, maybe then several ‘p’ for revised risked valuation ?? IF meetings next week are productive.

And with political & financial mandarins also in attendance, it certainly appears to be a week of news arriving.

Someone kick HFB out of bed, he was usually running hot on the various financial technicals : local fiscal regimes, production profiles, Opex & Capex figures & the projected Zillions. Then gives an idea of some components of the risked valuations. The Allenby Report figures for Economic volumes still don’t account for the Chudditch NE or out lying fields.