Member Info for dougb189

Meadow/Mr.T., The bod’s use of ‘synergies’ imv suggests a leveraged status that is derived against an initial hefty weighting of capex for the drill but then sees a more proportionate share being carried in line with each partner’s holdings ie hopefully we retain 30% as an initial free carry (as seen recently in the North Sea) but that whoever then acquires our, say 30%, then has to proportionately cover the big-ticket expenditures.

The sp as a metric likely then being secondary to the mc, which is where the bod currently have aligned their % holdings in lieu of a sale. The sp then only becomes prominent should placings occur.

The downsides though of lazy management that then consistently fails to keep its shareholders in the loop (sounds familar) is that should a placing then be required, the bod have exposed sp to unwarranted & unnecessary dilutions (sounds way too familiar) courtesy of the poor /lazy PR.

The lack of any news is of course also tied to NDA’s and so suspecting that the most recent frustrations being aired are just an unfortunate side-effect of Yeo’s long-term characteristic behaviour and that perhaps where TL & Boil are currently being silenced, is in part due to the more pronounced in-country developments inclusive of that meeting with oil /gas refinery developers.

The survey contracts have already been entered with the survey then occurring over the next 6 weeks which then likely suggests that the fee has been covered or that it’s costs are backed within the TL government incoming funding of $1M.

But for the appraisal well & in layman’s terms the use of ‘operational synergies’ then suggests a possible variable metric being used outside of a simple financial ratio eg 50/50 arrangement that perhaps uses a derivative with variable leverage on a % holding of any future development eg. that a partner then comes in carrying most of the weight initially but that IF the development then green-lighted, that a different variable is used to cover the high-ticket expenditures eg. $1.15B costs for an FPSO, is then shared equally. That the synergy is initially leveraged & then shared more equally…

The oil depot at Betano currently mooring the oil supply tanker Angel No.1 that is delivering her latest cargo at some expense to the impoverished islanders.

Not yet any signs of cargo vessels delivering the possible oil refinery modular construction units that some are expecting.

‘..The objective of the Site Survey…is principally to identify any potential hazards at the proposed well site, ensuring that a drilling rig can be safely located there with minimal environmental impact. The Site Survey work consists of geophysical studies and physical investigation of the seabed and shallow geological section.

SundaGas maintains dialogues with other companies active in the region to identify operational synergies for the drilling of the Chuditch-2 appraisal well. These discussions have resulted in the opportunity to acquire the Site Survey in partnership with a nearby operator..’

Inpex drilling nearby in May, then leaves less than 3 months to assess drill survey should they be in the frame as possible partners.

ENI drilling nearby in August with a 6 month lead-in timeframe to then assess drill sites so perhaps looking favourite to share those possible synergies on drill survey costs..

Researching ‘environmental’ concerns :

Timor-Leste has one of the highest smoking rates in the world. About 60.7% of adult males and 9.4% of adult females used tobacco in 2020. The tobacco prevalence among young people is similarly high: about 42% of boys and 21% of girls ages 13-15 also used tobacco in 2019.

Timor Leste has the highest rate of poverty in Southeast Asia. More than 40% of the population lives below the poverty line and it ranks 147 out of 187 countries in the UN's Human Development Index.7 Dec 2022

Timor-Leste has one of the youngest populations in the Asia-Pacific region, with a median age of 17.4 years - 74% of the population are below the age of 35 years. Timor-Leste is a Least Developed Country and is heavily dependent on gas and oil extractions.

Could perhaps be argued that TL not being developed courtesy of external global attitudes to environmental concerns is then likely to be ignored & result in a quick rubber-stamp from the 17.4 year old squatting in his/her granny’s shack..

Whichever view one takes, seems rather incredulous that some can suggest that TL’s environmental concerns will delay any purchasing arrangements.

Nice updates.

Keep an eye on Malaysia’s Weststar Aviation who have several bases in Indonesia and who operated on the island previously.

That ‘bundle of joy’ is hopefully triplets.

I just see us near the top of the queue for the next firing of the He1 defibrillator and that our ‘injuries’ have come about from reckless MM’s chasing those reckless spreadbet margins..

Wonderful metaphor earlier today ‘..that HE1 has put the defibrillator on the AIM.,’ which is perhaps an apt analogy for the current state of the small cap markets, that when revived they now jump up alive & kicking. Guessing the MM’s / brokers have done such a shoddy job of keeping any semblance of a balanced market that there will still be further displays of volatile reactions to come. Baron is certainly not on the mortuary slab, lol but perhaps being in a coma (20 years+?!) with the occasional wild dream, is maybe close to the mark.

Confident AY, AB & TG will then administer a suitable tonic. Lol but hopefully very soon. The patient is most definitely twitching.

Guessing that he has had his erse kicked.

Hopefully he now starts behaving.

A verifiable update would put all this nonsense to bed.

Https://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/barossa-offshore-development-project/?cf-view

‘..Project financing

The project secured $1.15bn in debt financing for the construction of the FPSO from a syndicate of nine international banks in August 2021. The lenders include Korea Development Bank, United Overseas Bank, Clifford Capital, MUFG Bank, Natixis, Oversea-Chinese Banking, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking, ABN Amro, and Cooperative Rabobank…’

lol, okay so perhaps Horta could have jumped on a boat to meet most of these big boys.

My wild guess…is that the Pope wants a slice.

‘.. All these meetings Horta has done around the globe, nothing seems to come out of it! ..’

Try consider out what Might be happening behind the scenes perhaps assisted by some searching, eg.a like-for-like comparison with one of our neighbouring new developments :

Santos’s Barossa has a consortium of 9 lenders all centred on international banking in addition to 3 financial supporters who are also international banks. This requires a lot of air-miles. And then generated the c$5.5B that gets the field up & running, inclusive of the $1.25B spent on a FPSO.

Doing further comparisons highlights Barossa’s reserves at c.380M boe. Someone on here recently posted Chuditch’s main field at c.190M boe plus a wee bit more than this in the 3 additional fields (soz, can’t remember the boe figures), which then shows that at a minimum Chudditch could easily set up similar FPSO.

Hence perhaps, Horta’s many many Air Miles ?

Now put the above consideration & tie it in with TL Central Bank’s recent ‘cancellation’ of Timor Gap’s $650M debt and of how that is now credited with an extra $1B on their petroleum fund.it does then appear that the local bankers are well pleased.

“… Not trying to be negative it’s just an opinion that should be discussed..”

And strangely it has become the ONLY opinion that you consistently raise.

No mention of Horta’s meetings ?

No mention of Central Bank accreditation given to TG debt ?

No mention of Any positives.

Allenby 24.01.24

“.. Well cost: A prospective Chuditch-2 appraisal well is estimated to cost US$32m gross,

including testing. Previously we have assumed that Baron will seek a free-carry farm-in

for Chuditch and that this will necessitate conceding 50% of the equity. That would

suggest that Baron’s working interest might drop from 60% to 30% post farm-in..”

Anything is of course possible.

The broker report though will have a better understanding of the management perspectives inclusive of a good probability of ‘.. that Baron will seek a free-carry farm-in

for Chudit….’

That’s cool bud that you are spreading negative opinions on a stock that you allegedly hold.

Interesting history, with being regularly called a troublemaker on the UPL bb and here you are again, formulating your ‘opinions’.. ?

‘..no raise needed..’ courtesy of 150M extra shares at 1.2p each ?

Please keep your negativity to your own trading circle and I will then refrain from expanding the negativities that I know that currently cover my various stocks including Sarawak and would likely cause concern for those with extremely weak hands.

I would wager there are better odds that a placing will occur in Sarawak long before AY & AB dilute their shareholdings here.

Sarawak O&G with 150M outstanding 2023 warrants at 1.2p to be exercised before the end of the year & at a 60% discount. And every investor on the planet, remembers the infamous placing of the 64M warrants from 2022 just a few short months ago..

Would rather lay odds that the incoming gratuity payment of $1M to BOIL then sees the directors pick up some extra shares.

And I hold an even split on both these stocks as imv Either could go first. Just less of the negative opinions from those trading it.

Was this not the Oz company Timor Resources that Horta engaged with in a ‘friendship meeting’ ?

I believe they currently have 4 wells onshore.

Any accountants in da house, to run over the figures ?

My calculation then show that the totals added last year are inclusive of the subtracted cash outflows of $302M, ie. that the Fair Value of TG debt is then possibly closer to $731M + $302M & so giving c.$1B accredited to the Petroleum Fund directly from TG..

Possibly the bank has simply added some interest..