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A bid is a bid though, and whether it's a tad over or more than that, I can't see it being topped.
I'm quite fortunate as I've come into this only recently at the end of October. For long term holders it's been a bumpy ride but some clarity will be welcome.
Let's see what happens tomorrow and that will be me closing out.
https://news.sky.com/story/aa-bidders-line-up-ex-centrica-chair-to-lead-breakdown-group-12139399
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-11-22/astra-oxford-shot-is-key-to-escaping-pandemic-for-many-nations?in_source=amp_trending_now_3
This is a very informative article and definitely gives confidence.
The Pfizer vaccine being charged at $37 and the astra vaccine charged around $4-5.
Developing countries with ledge populations, and without the option to store vaccines at a very low temperature will be hoping for a good result in the efficacy, released in the next couple of weeks.
Article indicates even 70% effectiveness would be deemed a success.
Clemoc, not sure what you wear on a Saturday afternoon. but I'll wear whatever anyone wants (including suspenders) if there's a bid by Tuesday
Thanks, Clemoc,
I suppose I'm thinking that if that want to refinance or go for an RI, the window is closing somewhat. Rules that allowed businesses to increase share capital so easily end on the 30th of November.
This is the press release from the Financing Reporting Council - https://www.frc.org.uk/news/november-2020/additional-flexibility-on-non-pre-emptive-issuance released yesterday.
I think there will be an announcement before the 30th of November (not just an extension which must be announced by Tuesday) and if not, I think we're in for the long-haul, but this wouldn't be the only position I have which is for the long-haul. My retirement is looking a little further away!
I've been holding RA for 18 months now, and it's not really doing much. Understand there's not much liquidity and even a buy-back, reducing liquidity even more, but what's the view? Happy to continue holding - the reinvestment from dividends in July is showing a bit of a loss, but nothing to worry about, and I really like the principals and principles of the business, but I would have thought that RA would have advanced more, so slightly disappointed.
Hi everyone,
First time posting on this BB, although I am a holder of a few hundred shares.
I'm on the A/O trial and will be going back on Tuesday for my next set of blood tests. There are 60 people in the world on the same protocol as I am. So far I've had the first vaccine and the second one should have been in two weeks, but I'm going to be on holiday so it will be when I get back. All has gone very well so far with no side effects (other than a bit of a sore arm for two days afterwards, but nothing more than when it's prodded).
I'm going to find out more info, but am fairly certain that phase three results (which for the first set of triallers was the second vaccine in August) will be out very shortly.
I'm on the second set of triallers - another 11,000 as far as I remember - but know that I've been given the vaccine and not in a controlled group. I know they want to get these results out this year as there was discussion about me amending my holiday dates.
IMO, the O/A vaccine will be the world-leading one rather than the Pfizer one, and they will be making money out of it Obviously, there are many more in the pipeline too.
What's also interesting for me are the excellent new cancer treatments and breakthroughs they're working on right now. I think Pharma is going to have a resurgence over the coming few years and for me, this is a long-term hold, and when I can afford, I'll increase over the coming year.
Hi,
First post on TED, although I dipped in last October (big loss so far), and have gradually been picking up more, including taking the full quota of the RI.
What's the view on TOSCA taking this further? I'm in for the long term as I see TED as a strong business, with quality products and a loyal following. Their new digital platform seems to be doing well and I like the changes they've made to strategy and the board.
I suppose what I'm erring towards is taking some more once another one of my investments reaps the dividends (hopefully) over the next month.
Any views very welcome from people who follow it much closer than I'm able to.
TIA
I'd hoped something was going to be released yesterday, and not fully understanding the delays.
I'm still fairly new to having some decent amount in UK stocks, so forgive me, but if the PE had fallen through, wouldn't it have been announced? Can a three-month delay be due to the PE trying to get a better deal? That would tantamount the negligence from the board of a PLC, wouldn't it? An extension to me means more due diligence or working through the numbers, and maybe complicated over the recent ruling on insurance pricing, and legal teams.
Some understanding of the process from much more experienced investors would be greatly appreciated - I've done as much reading as I can, but my brain's beginning to hurt. I've been building a portfolio over the last two years, many of them for the longer term, but some, like the AA, in the hope there may be an uplift, in for a short time, and this one is the most confusing one I have.
Carnival and Saga - zero chance in my view.
Carnival do own P&O and Cunard both "British", and on the smaller ship side Seabourn, but Micky Arison, Chairman and major shareholder doesn't know anything of land holidays or insurance and Saga wouldn't sell the cruise division.
A bid makes no sense. I think it's a correction only. Remembering that 300p is only 20p prior to the consolidation. And that's way below what they were even a few months ago.
This is led, I'm convinced, by news of the vaccine, and a very unloved stock getting a bit of a poke.
Thanks Rupans.
Looks like the bodyshop garage were just giving an excuse for being so late.
The feature is really interesting though isn't it. The market for second hand cars has done well with people not wanting to yay public transport, and so that would indicate more cars need to be insured.
What's your view? Would that indicate older people who are using for getting around, or commuters, although less people going into offices.
My brain hurts trying to work it all out.
While the AA has the takeover bid, I would also suggest that part of the rise could also be the new breakdowns or their small, but should be big, insurance division? If its going round that insurance are to be eaten up, then AA should do well.
The only way Saga would have a takeover is if RDH took it private, but I see no reason he would do that yet? He wouldn't allow any other form of takeover...
Rupans - I think the financial year ends 31st Jan, so hopefully, we'll get to see very positive insurance results fairly soon.
Rupans - Maybe, although I live in Winchmore Hill and my car was hit recently. The repair garage said that they were soooo busy, it would take 4 weeks to get mine seen. Fair do's - it wasn't a big dent, but even so, I'm not sure car insurance has done so well - although I did buy Aviva which has done very well since July when I bought.
I'm tempted to almost do some day trading on Saga, and sell some today, and buy back after some profit-taking. But, I'm not brave enough. Keeping it as it is. Sadly I sold 200,000 (old shares) three months ago. Now kicking myself., but not too hard. Don't want to have to claim for personal injury and reduce dividends! haha
I am hearing from senior people internally that there is a sense of something moving, that all points are heading in the right direction for a very good year ahead. Euan Sutherland seems to have a complete and positive grip on the business. Maybe, just maybe, Lance Batchelor did put many of the right things in place which are coming to fruition.
But somewhere, in the deepest darkest place in the bowels of Saga, there is very good news for the business and it definitely has momentum. Fingers crossed.
Now what's happening to my Enquest shares?! Hmm....Nothing
threeputt - the first set of the third phase (11,000) had their second vaccine more than a couple of months ago; the second set (which I'm in) have had the first vaccine and the second one is beginning of December. I had a third set of blood taken yesterday, but only saw a nurse, rather than the lead consultant. She was very nice but didn't have much info that I could rely on.
When I saw the lead consultant - and she's one of the main researchers - a couple of weeks ago, she said it was looking really positive and results would be"very shortly", and so in all honesty, I don't know, but if it's later than the end of next week, I'd be more than surprised. I'm back for more blood tests next Tuesday and I'm seeing her.
If you have access to the Telegraph - this is an excellent article - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/11/14/astrazeneca-seeks-keep-pace-hunt-game-changing-vaccine/
IMO A/O is a much better bet on taking the lion's share as they can produce faster. And with results from Pfizer and Moderna showing very high efficacy rates, it can only be good for the economy as a whole and particularly for travel
Certainly early enough for the peak booking period within travel to benefit for Easter onwards travel.
If Saga can become less corporate looking for the travel division though, I think that too would be a positive step. Everything is pointing in the right direction.
The doofus
In old money, like-for-like (and we all know that share dilution doesn't allow for that technically), De Hann paid £4 (£0.27 prior to the 15/1 consolidation).
Previous to that - and just three months ago - even during Covid - the board was approached with a £0.33 (£5 in new share value) offer but rejected it because it was too low and didn't value the business to its true worth.
This was when many thought that Covid was going to be devastating for the older population.
I'm on the Oxford/AstraZeneca trial, and understand from one of the lead consultants that it's going extremely well. The difference in releasing results from O/A is that they are going to release two sets of data at the same time and distributing to the more vulnerable and frontline workers will be priority. By April, I think that the majority of older people who want the vaccination would have had it and holidays will begin again for the Easter/SUmmer period.
Saga customers by and large or over 70, and nothing is going to stop them from taking as many holidays as they can while they still can.
It doesn't actually matter whether the vaccine is effective for 6 weeks, 6 months or 6 years - because they'll have the confidence to travel.
And as all cruises begin and end in the UK, there'll be no flying and that puts them at a huge advantage.
I never make predictions, but I won't be selling before they reach £7. I may be in for a longish wait, but in for a penny.
Now....what do I do with the AA! I think that's about as good as it may get. My nerves are already shredded.
I no longer have insight into their financials.
I do know that many, if not most, cruise passengers deferred their cruises to 2021. They're a hardy bunch. Much of the cruise business is based on retention, with most of the retained customers booking many many months in advance to get the best cabin (I won't sail until I am given cabin XXXX or if Captain XXX isn't onboard!) and best prices, and there are no external suppliers as Saga owns the ships, but doesn't own aircraft or hotels. As such I can understand why cruising hasn't had much to pay back or have a drain on cash being refunded, but I'm not sure on the holidays or river-cruising side of it.
The one thing I am absolutely certain of is that the travel division is still regulated financially by the FCA, and for that I can't see how customers deposits were used incorrectly - and technically it is against CAA rules to use customers cash to keep the business going.
While I understand the basics of finance, and accounts, Banburyboy, you have much better understanding of it.
I suppose what I don't understand is why it wouldn't be expected that repayments were made. I've had a quick look through the interims and can't see reference to £81 million refunded, but again it's not my strong area. The travel division has many third party suppliers, whereas the cruise division doesn't. If a flight or a hotel was cancelled, beyond Saga's control, it's within the PTR (Pacakge Tour Regulations - a package being more than one component to a holiday, ie flight and hotel, or hotel and transfer - to which all Saga holidays are), repayments must be made within 14 days. The travel division of Saga also includes the numbers from Destinology and Titan too.
The new ringfencing - put into plce since RDH has taken over the chairmanship, does indicate, in my view, that the direction of the board is to regain any trust which may have been lost. So, from a technical point of view - travel companies in 99% of the time don't pay hotels in advance, and most airlines are paid only when the flight has left, so refunding shouldn't be a problem, and even where the airline has not refunded, most travel businesses are just knocking off the refunds on any additional bookings made (thinking the lowcost not the scheduled).
Looking forward to 2021, travel companies are saying "business is looking very strong" - well that's obvious! Many of the population want to have something to look forward to, and so the money was already in the hands of the travel businesses and they've pushed forward their booking to next year, rather than booking when they normally do. There are two crunch points for travel businesses coming up - first week of February after what should be a very strong month of sales; and end of March when the CAA will be renewing licences for the majority of tour ops. Saga and Titan (Destinology now sold for a song) will breeze through both hurdles. Others, including some well known names are going to really str
Edit to this - they have moved ALL customers money to a Trust Travel account - not just the deposit
Apologies
Hi,
I think there may be some misunderstanding - Saga have moved their deposits into a Travel Trust account.
If this is what you are thinking about, all it means is that 100% of the customers' money is kept in a ringfenced account until they have returned from holiday. It's all about giving confidence to the consumer to say "we aren't using your money to keep us afloat" (no pun intended)
This is totally different from the Which report where it talks about travel businesses using deposits to keep the business going.
That makes sense or are we talking at cross-purposes?