Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Just read the Telegraph article.
There have been a few journalists travelling on ships around the Caribbean recently, and unfortunately, they had to be isolated because there were cases of Covid19 onboard. And reported on it.
As Saga only sail from the UK, and everyone is going to self-isolate for five days, I think the protocols they've put in place are terrific.
Spirit of Discovery's inaugural cruise isn't until May and Adventure is planned to return to sailing by the beginning of April.
If Nick Stace (New CEO of Travel division) is right and they need three months' notice, there would need to be an announcement by the end of December - in perfect timing for the peak sales period (27th December to 06th Feb).
From an operations point of view, Saga is the slickest cruising business I know, and so lots of plans will be in place. The difficulty will be the crew - they're predominantly Filipino, and there will be restrictions, quarantines, and many more things to put into place, all of which takes time, including flying them all into the UK, training onboard, new protocols necessary. Three months is I think being cautious - we would have gone through Brexit too, and the rules still aren't clear.
There will be news on the AstraZeneca trial next week, and yesterday there was an online seminar, indicating the new stats from AstraZeneca will be improved numbers from the 1st set of results (which weren't handled by PR very well in my view).
And so, I think the AstraZeneca vaccine will gain approval by the 15th of December and start to get rolled out before Christmas into CareHomes; politicians, celebrities, nurses, Drs, and influencers will all be photographed having the vaccine and none of them will die.
There is also discussion in the Telegraph that the other cruise lines will leave UK waters - I don't think that's true. To go to where? We may lose a few of the ships, but that can only be good for the UK departure companies of Fred. Olsen, P&O, and Cunard (the last two owned by Carnival - who I repeat will not now, nor ever buy Saga Cruising or Saga)
The UK is a nation of travellers - and before the advent of the mainstream package holiday (just 60 years ago), we could only travel by ship - it's inbuilt into our DNA that going on a ship is an adventure and an aspiration.
Saga customers won't fly, it's too much stress, and the other cruiselines know this, so they would be foolish to reposition back to the US, the Far East has struggled because of the US/China/HongKong relationship, and then you have Europe cruising, so perhaps a couple of move to Spain or Italy, but the ports are already busy, and there's over capacity in fly-cruise to Europe.
A very long way round of saying that cruising will be given the go-ahead by the end of the year in my view, and that will lead to a massively successful peak season campaign, Saga will set sail again on time and with high yields.
there is more chance of Philip Green being made a Lord
I was on the Debenhams website last night for a nosey (once I could get on) and decided to have a poke around. All Ted Baker I could find was out of stock. Is this because they would have asked Debenhams to pull the brand from heavy discounting?
A great way to protect your brand and with two major retailers very sadly facing a dark future, it could be an opportunity for TED to pick up some great talent and strengthen their teams even more?
Not a chance. IMHO :)
I'd be very happy to read, listen, learn and debate about Rox.
I can little to numbers, but can add to brand, core strengths, sentiment and a little common sense.
I'm not sure how much use I'd be but would give it a go, and my own returns this year are about 30% up. With some great increases, and a couple of spectacular losses to date, including TED and WPP
So, following on from a few comments about costings.
Saga's pricing model has always been about recognising some cruises will be more popular than others. A yielding team through algorithms will know that one cruise is going to sell better than another, and so an "acceptable margin" will be based on anything from 65% occupancy through to 80-85% occupancy. Prices for a ship are fairly static - the only increase on a daily basis is when they're in port, and you will see some ships take forever to get from one port to another and spend less time there, while others (like Saga) spend more time in port.
The reasons - if Saga customers are on the ship, they're eating and drinking - and they don't make much profit out of that. Why have people eating more when they could be out, having spent money on an excursion.
Bigger cruise lines - Carnival/NCL/RCCL want short excursions, want passengers on the ship because they can get out of the port quicker (cheaper), and while they're on board because everything is payable, they make more profit. The bigger cruise lines will also always sail as close as they can to full ships - for many reasons, but think about it. Their fixed costs are the same whether you have 10 people on board or 10,000 on board. What reduces with more people are salaries (tips reduce the need to pay salaries), while revenue onboard increases - and the cost of food is minimal. £8 a day per person? The chefs, the crew, the entertainment are all there no matter what.
What this means is don't take how many cabins are free as a basis for how successful the cruise is, but if there are discounts, and they remain close to the sailing date - then know the cruise hasn't hit the target.
A per diem, for a smaller ship, you probably need to bring in £280-£300 per day per cabin when it's a 1-to-1.5 crew/passenger ratio to make a good 20-30% NP over the year, based on your yielding being at reasonable rates
For a larger ship, you probably need to be in £120-£150 per day, per cabin. Based on 95-100% occupancy
I'm fairly new on LSE - but have found that there are a number of posters who are genuinely here to chat...this is a "share chat" and for that, I am very grateful and have learnt a lot. Including from Rox, and a few more.
From my perspective, I'm here to learn more about how to invest from the Private Investors who in my view, have some very valuable insight.
I honestly don't understand the finances so much - but do understand a business's communications strategy - whether it is clear, muddied, unsure, or a mess. For millions of people across the country (and most of our shares seem to be UK based), simplicity of understanding a brand, why they exist, what they offer and why a consumer/business should spend their budget with them, is second nature to me, and for that, I hope people on here may help out on the financial side (I'm no thickie but the details need explaining more so they make sense), and I hope that over the coming months, maybe years, my understanding of a market positioning and how that can benefit or damage a business brings a different aspect to the boards
And it's hit the press already
https://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/394139/saga-achieves-crucial-cruise-ship-health-accreditation
Just managed to buy in this morning - tried yesterday and kept failing, now I know why! Today in at 63p
Good to be onboard
Managed to buy in .
I may have been one of the 100!
Pianista - I've been doing some research, and I agree that this is a share that is undervalued, but I'm wondering what it needs to give it a kickstart.
With today's news on the AA, and the announcement that they want to invest in technology over the next couple of years, this could be a worthwhile punt. It's the end of the month and each month I empty my current account to zero, put 20% into deposit; 20% into premium bonds (at least I can't lose) and the rest into the share account, topping up some perennials when they're cheap (Saga, WPP and TED). I also sell the profits when a share has made me 20% or more since buying (other than the perennials) to invest in something new. It's been a decent month, and I'm not in any rush to buy, but this could be an option. Also looking into Breedon
I've had a good read through this, only in layman's language, but it seems to me that we have a number of possibilities:
Sell - almost all the trades today so far are at 34.05p
Hold on in the short term to see what ABC and the big institutional holders do, in the hope there may be a counter-bid, but at this late stage?
Transfer our shares to TopCo and have them locked in for five years, taking a share of any dividends the new owners take and hope that when it goes into other PE or back to the market, we get a decent dividend.
I feel deeply saddened that the many staff of the AA and long term holders have gone through yet another trouncing. I'm lucky in that this was speculative for me and I only bought in late, so am on a semi-decent profit of a few thousand, but I think the offer totally undervalues the AA and it's tempting to hold on either for a counterbid, get my £0.35 which could take some time, or write-off the money for five years (max) and hope for a decent payout in 2025.
I'm not selling today that's for sure.
You may be right, but if so, I think I must know almost all100 of them. You're absolutely right it was a brutal last set of redundancies, but there was a lot of deadwood that needed clearing. Within travel i was including the studio and crew that were on the books, not necessarily in the building
Again, you may well be right, but got they'll do over 100,000 pax with only 100 staff? That would be extraordinary. On the same ratio Thomas Cook would have only needed 3200, rather then the 29,000 they did have.
The question I was answering was about furlough and the crew onboard, but it's good to know the monolithic brown building is closed.
Like you, I think Saga is a good buy, and as two people who know it from the inside, bodes well....even if the employment is no longer in place.
Hi
I'm in the A/O trial and was back at the hospital today for a further set of blood being taken. All very good so far.
The sense I got while there is that there remains a lot of pressure from AZN on the scientists and medics but they are very happy with the results.
More results coming out the next couple of weeks.
When I mentioned about the 70% v 90%, they were a little disgruntled at the 70% headline because that's not what any of them had been really looking at.
There's a great press release https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-11-23-oxford-university-breakthrough-global-covid-19-vaccine
Worth a look, and in my opinion, worth a punt. I've only 300 shares but will top up.
I think there are now about 800-1000 left? Something like that. The travel division, almost entirely in HQ at Enbrook Park will be no more than 300; Middleburg Square which is mostly Insurance will have maybe 300 maximum, Thanet (which I think they still have) is probably 200 in the call centre, and then there were two other buildings – Cheriton Park, on the side of the M20 which used to be the Eurotunnel building, and Hastings – created in 2012 or around then. Not entirely sure but think they have gone. I can check with a quick call! They then have Titan which I think will be 60 or so?
Tour Managers are almost all contract staff, so only paid if they work.
The ships crew are nearly all Filipino and agency, not employed by the business – they get better salaries than many of their counterparts as tips tend to be less, because they’re not “expected”, but they do fairly well and the working conditions are better than lines like Carnival. It helps with retention too as many of them know Saga customers.
The big staff numbers came from Allied Healthcare – a big disaster that Goodsell bought in his quest to make Saga a one-stop all for older people, but they managed to get rid of it in 2014.
In my honest view, I think that 2021 is going to be a good year for them. They’ll reposition their travel business, hopefully forget about the dreadful rebranding they did a few years ago (the A’s of sAgA look like zimmer frames to me) – get rid of the deadwood; reduce their stay holidays - it’s too price competitive with little profit, they’ll concentrate on tours, river cruising and ocean cruising and hopefully also get rid of some of their third party suppliers. I never understood why they started to sell Fred. Olsen Cruises or CMV; Azamara or others – it’s Saga’s database and they should guard it preciously. It’s their most valuable asset.
I also think they’ll improve their three-year insurance products. Older people like certainty about how much they’ll need to spend for their safety and insurance. May cost a little more to begin but in the longer term, as long as Saga return to their customer centric stance they’ll benefit.
As some of you know, I’m also on the Astra Oxford trial and was with the consultant today – the potential for Saga customers to begin to travel again is extraordinary – and they’ll travel as much as they can…I know these customers!!
So a long write-up to say it’s oversold, it’s undervalued and I think the only way is up
Thanks Swanny - some v useful information there.
Been another good day so far.
I'm not as prolific or experienced as you are, and I think I'm looking at businesses from a different angle than many of the other investors. My background is in branding and marketing, so seeing how a company is communicating, whether their strategy makes sense and has growth potential is what I fundamentally look at and then finances - wrong way round I know!
Made a nice profit on Saga, and continuing to hold another tranche of their shares with a sell at £6-7 within a year
Also done well on the AA buying in at 19p - had hoped their buy-out would have been better today, but not sure that this is final offer, so holding onto them until it's completed.
A real dog for me has been BT. *Groan*
will hold TED until we have more news from trading update on the 7th Dec
Tui has some major challenges ahead (I'm stuck with a 50% loss on my holding so far), and so I'm not going to sell. The cards in the travel industry have yet to fall so no-one is quite sure who has a decent hand. It's not going to go bang like Thomas Cook, but they will need to sell some assets and I see a gradual increase back towards £6 within a year.
TUI did very well the last few years because Thomas Cook was so weak and Jet2 were finding their feet. Monarch had already gone and so the package travel industry really only had one major player - forget the likes of OnTheBeach and LoveHoldiays - they have a different customer base.
It's now a different landscape for TUI.
Their dividend can't be returned until they've paid back the government bailout.
Their footprint across the German, British, and Scandinavian markets are being squeezed from more agile businesses that don't have legacy IT and performance issues, and their handling of Covid19 has been pretty weak. Jet2 have fared much better - and with their expansion in Bristol what used to be a stronghold of Thomas Cook, is going to stretch the TUI team further in the UK.
The heavy reliance on Travel Agents selling their brand is going to be an issue with easyJet holidays and a further strengthened Jet2 concentrating on growing their businesses with the same products (just different airlines).
I'm convinced Saga will outperform with a more loyal set of customers, products that are unique (touring is going to be a big push for them in 2021 and beyond) meaning they don't need to price compete, whereas TUI is only competing on price.
HI everyone,
I recently wrote on here that in my view, Titan Travel, as well as Saga, had responded quickly and effectively to the Covid19 restrictions which bode well for future sales.
This looks like it was accurate with today's news that they've released 2022 early based on increased demand for 2021 (vaccine news)
https://travelweekly.co.uk/articles/393595/covid-vaccine-news-triggers-titan-demand-for-2022
Forward bookings, in advance of the peak sales period for travel in January, is a very positive sign. There's a PR spin to this of course (I'm saying this as a PR/Marketing/Branding pro), but my knowledge of the travel industry is saying to me that my gut feels about Titan and Saga remains very positive, and with a relaunch of Saga Travel coming soon, 2021 is going to be very strong for them.
onwards and upwards, and maintaining my feeling that £5 is probably by summer; £7 is fair within 12 months.
I think there is some good news fairly soon for Saga. Definitely a hold for me.
I've only 20,000 AA shares and assuming an offer comes tomorrow or Tuesday, will then close.
Never heard of Trakm8. What's your view? Worth a punt? Obviously would do my own research too, but nice to have a view from someone who knows their stuff
Pianista, didn't realise you were on the AA too.
Always enjoy reading your really good considered posts. Thanks!