Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Does it really matter what the UK (a realm outside of the UK that has shown the EU up) thinks.
Borders are borders. The EU commission has today announced that some sort of pass 'some time in March. Ursula van liar said The Digital Green Pass should facilitate Europeans‘ lives.
“The aim is to gradually enable them to move safely in the European Union or abroad – for work or tourism'
Take note everyone, European lives..... We aren't included.
Today I've had a day off from work. Tomorrow I go back to dealing with government, elections, websites and new business so it has been a pleasure as always.
For now I say adieu and continue to hold Saga. She's going to return your faith to the tune of £7
JOE,
Currently it is illegal to travel for anything other than essential travel.
FCO guidance is used by all nearly all, other than a few rogue ones, as an equivalent to law.
I've been working in the travel industry for over 30 years, latterly as senior director, and worked at Saga (and Acromas) as a director too for many years. That doesn't mean I can't be and am not wrong, but in this, I can't see for the life of my wife that cruising will start in May.
My own view is that if holidays and cruising start by the end of June, we are all in a very good position to benefit from a fair price of £7 before the end of the year.
Of the government lifts restrictions too early on international travel, it will be devastating to the travel industry when we go into lockdown 4. That can't happen. Slowly slowly catchy monkey.
I've lost and made money in a number of shares. But I haven't lost any in the travel or leisure industry, and for that I'm very grateful... And fingers crossed my view on saga that I think a few of you follow, remains upbeat.
The aim of this post (many stages up). was to give my view as to why. We can all guess. I guess but have reasoning behind it. For everyone I write, I try put that forward with the views I see and the reasons behind it. This BB is by far the best I know of with similar well thought through posts.
I like many views, but on this occasion, while I like yours, I like my view better :)
Absolutely can't see it - it's against the law for anyone to spend a night on a cruise ship - international or U K only.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/cruise-ship-travel
We know there is NO international travel before the 17th May, and I see zero chance of Grant Shapps saying "You Saga lot can go on an international cruise on the 4th May, but you Fred Olsen lot can't, oh and you lot under 50 - you can maybe go later in the year". It's a ludicrous suggestion.
Sorry guys but there is no way - the FCO guidance is that it is unlawful to stay overnight on a ship
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/cruise-ship-travel
This is not going to change before the 17th of May - and even then, there's zero chance of them saying "Saga you can go; Cunard, Fred. Olsen, and Royal Caribbean" you can't.
For the simple ones Slowsteadywho like one-line comments (don't take offence) - I wouldn't book a holiday to travel before the end of June. It's 99% not likely going to happen and Saga's shares are going to be affected by it
Bluster and out
I know nothing that isn#t in the public domain - sifting through the bluster and smoke of political statements and taking everything into account, it's just my view. The following are what I've taken into account
Technically, the government has said 17th May (at the earliest).
17th May - minus 12 weeks (because that's how long maximum it is staking to give a second vaccine) = 22nd February.
22nd February - 12.7 million people vaccinated with at least one dose (remembering I had both doses in Octo ber so even more frustrating for me!)
12.7 million people - with a good number of those in care homes and another decent tranche that don't want to travel abroad.
Minus another 2 weeks for the vaccine to reach full strength, and you're looking at people who were vaccinated really in December and January who technically will have vaccine passports by the 17th of May.
Add onto this the furore there would be by the under 50's on not being able to travel when others can and you'll end up in chaos.
BUT even if everything was ok within the UK, and everyone could get a vaccine by 17th May - the EU has stated to it will not open its borders to international travel until 70% of the EU is vaccinated. Italy - similar size to the UK, vaccinated 4 million. that's 6 or 7% of the population. And so if they stick to 70% there's zero chance.
But this is the UE and they're all very woolly - Greece and Cyprus have started to break ranks - with a trilateral arrangement with Israel. This isn't huge. The three countries work together on tourism and their tourist boards all work together. Additionally, there may be some island-hopping but there's no country -hopping. The Germans, Belgians and French love to get in their cars and drive - a continent without borders. I just think the EU will open itself up to the 400 million before they open themselves up to the Brits.
On top of that, our own hospitality sector - bars, restaurants, hotels need revenue - it's not going to come from the Americans, I doubt the EU will allow mass travel from there to here and so our government will incentivise to stay within the UK. Heathrow has already added a new pandemic tax of £8.45 per person (or something like that).
You can't open just half of the country up to say they can travel, you can't.
My view is that International Travel to the EU will begin in earnest at the end of June.
Cruising - Saga cruising could be different as my original post said because that's outside of the EU, and is age discriminatory - I know, I helped to lobby the government on it!
Sharefall, I suspect you've been on cruising websites and for the profile. The ads you see are quite often related to the things you've registered for and your demographic.
But even so, good to see.
Cruising from the US, sailing International waters, won't start again until late summer ( just in time for main hurricane season!) but I do think cruising within the EU, with starting and stopping Athens, Barcelona, Malaga and Venice being the main hubs.
For the share price to step in a continual and steady trajectory, travel needs to start for Group ( saga and titan) by mid June.
Vaccine passports, or digital vaccine certificates from non-EU countries to access EU won't be ready for many months.
The EU has stated that 70% of its citizens need vaccinating before travel fully opens up. At the speed they're going... We could be in trouble.
I also think it's very political and going to play out with the Southern EU countries of Greece, Cyprus, Italy, Malta, Spain and Portugal needing British tourists, but the northern and more powerful countries wanting to keep the EU all in step.
There's a thread about price this week. I don't do short term, but would expect some downward pressure on travel stocks as the budget will be about trying to keep us all spend our money within the UK to try and kickstart the economy.
Sunak isn't going to want mad exodus over the summer for us to spend our money bouying up someone else's economy.
Keep an eye out on your TV for more travel ads to include Jersey, Guernsey and the rest of the UK
I saw a post earlier about recruitment (Beachbum I think).
It referred to aviation at Titan. An entire aviation team.
Titan has always used Saga's aviation team to buy flights. Bigger quantity, better leverage on prices.
I continue to think this is them preparing to offload Titan, which would be the sensible thing to do when travel is on the upturn and PE has billions ready for investment, and a new conglomerate and consolidation of specialist travel companies would make sense. Bought cheaply with a few cherries for great customer experience, and you have a compelling business model. I think Titan would be one of those cherries. It wouldn't be out of the realms of impossibility that it could still be valued at 100 million.
Additionally, I don't know who else receives Saga brochures, but there's been a marked upturn in their quality, not only in content (increasing the touring options)., but also quality of print and paper. As A Telegraph and Sunday Times reader, I also see a return to advertising and inserts. This is a business that is very focused on returning to its roots and letting go of non-core, undifferentiated offerings.
They haven't made much of a shout about it, but their thanet office has also been turned into one of the UK’s largest covid vaccination centres too. Opens on Monday.
The three year insurance policies will continue to grow for at least another two years before stabilising, and this gives some certainty to insurance growth opportunities.
I think international air travel will really only begin at the end of June, however...cruises during the summer are for the main part going north, predominantly to the non EU countries of Norway and Iceland. Add on UK cruises with a little Faroe islands, plus the company's decision on only allowing fully vaccinated passengers onboard and there's a strong possibility cruising could start earlier.
I'm not 100% sure when full year figures come out, but think it's about mid April. The numbers for insurance will be decent, and forward bookings with yield and margin on travel, very positive.
I've said on many occasions £7 (Banbury, your £6.40 is fairly assured) by end of year will be a fair value. Bumps along the way no doubt.
I crystallised some decent profit this week, and am now looking at an 842% margin on the remainder (so my account tells me).
Stick with it guys if you can, and for those service cashed out and already made your margin, well done.
Hi everyone
Apologies for missing out on so much. Work is keeping me more than very busy.
Delighted with the rise so far, but there's a fair whack more to go, so hasn't on in there if you can.
The potential early opening of travel is a huge bonus. It's earlier than I expected... However, in my view international travel won't start in May, although that's what has given us the main push up the last few days (my TUI and IAG shares have also done very well).
The word from inside is that there's a real buzz about the business and, from a monotonous fairly limp group of individuals they've been transformed to a well oiled 'everything is possible' team.
I still expect Titan to be sold within the year, and the new river cruisers are doing particularly well.
Continue to fully believe in this. We're having a great run and long may it last, but we're still going to get a few bumps along the road to recovery.
I've unloaded some and banked very nice profits, but the majority is still here, and I maintain £7 is a fair value.
GLA
You're right. I have previously mentioned that river cruising is coming up in the rails.
The cost of building a three deck 200 pax capacity is around £30 million or so.
Much cheaper to operate and manage, more stops, less fuel. Less crew, cheaper moorings.
Saga's operated and taken guarantees on other river cruisers for years, and the programme is very solid with, I expect, 15k passengers a year already, so transferring these to Saga owned ships creates a full vertical operation.
Saga was taken to the stockmarket to raise funds, but it wasn't very successful. Saga was, and remains, a very private business.
Being there for years, part of the communications strategy was to keep the business out of the news, not in it. It was a sleeping giant, quietly getting on with it's business. They're database is probably one of the most valuable of any business.and they plan long term. Stockmarket likes short termism and profits. That doesn't particularly work for the family. You just need to see the redevelopment of the Folkestone quarter. This is a long term project, and if it had been a PLC, would have had real shareholder kickback.
S, P and RDH didn't like having to report the company business strategy, didn't like the short termism, and having to do what was expected by investors.
This remains one of my over riding thoughts as to why he may take it private again.
The business isn't well received by investors who don't understand the whole philosophy of why it exists.
https://www.kentonline.co.uk/folkestone/news/huge-saga-office-block-goes-on-sale-241915/
I haven't been in for a while. Work is incredibly busy, and so apologies everyone.
The trading update was much as had been predicted, and I believe Saga will continue to tread water until towards the middle of this year.
From all my conversations with internal people, RDH is steering the business and running the show.
My continual prediction that we'll be at £7 end of this year remains, with a strong possibility RDH will take private. Review my posts over the last 6 months. Its not changed.
I was previously asked why he didn't do this initially, but my view then and continues to be that he needed to be on the inside again, and frankly at 27p in old shares he wouldn't his offer wouldn't have been accepted by shareholders, particularly when a 33p was rejected, no matter how initial it had been.
The trading update was exactly as i had previously written. Three year plans doing well, insurance decent, travel ready to go when restrictions are lifted. Admittedly I had hoped travel would begin again at the end of May, but now I no longer think that's going to be strong enough to make a difference, and so end of season will be more realistic. However we should not look short but long term.
I still don't understand why some are negative about the 3 year policies, and I can't see the underwriting being sold off. Makes no strategic sense.
Cruises will begin with UK only cruises, followed by Scandinavian and European.
Titan will continue to do well and is prime for being sold when the time is right, and 2022 will be very positive for the business.
I continue to believe all of us in for the long term will be very well rewarded, and those trying to make money on "day trading" can make money, but it's risky.
There is, in my opinion, insignificant risk to making substantial gains, for longer term PI's over the next year.
The very big announcement I expect will be September. Hang on for the ride.
Good question Rogue.
To understand true value, get over covid and strengthen the business to where it's in a good place will take some time and only when you're an insider, and managing it. By stealth he's taking control.
Why take 26.9% if there is no intention to take on more?
He's in the best position and has time, and money £1 billion) on his side.
All this is speculation, but then the whole board is to an extent
I've been with Share.com on their frequent dealing subscription, but they've been taken over by ii (interactive investor).
Hargreaves Lansdown also very good
And so to end this post -
Hold on in there guys.
I don't think. although could be wrong, this is going to be an immediate win from today's price but will, by the end of the year ill be in the region of £7 a share.
The insurance division, under Lance and then Cheryl has made the right decisions for the mid to long term.
The travel division will recover by the second half of the year. I expect their update on the 26th to say "challenging, late start to this year, but very positive for next year. Cruising selling well and River cruising better than ever. On track and positive outlook"
And for those willing to wait a little longer, I'm convinced RDH will eventually take private and back into family ownership.
The above two posts, just my view, no insider information, but fairly confident
Hi everyone
I think many people on this board know my views on Saga - Undervalued, positive outlook with some bumps along the way, not because of their own strategy, but because of world events affecting them more than many due to covid and world events.
For newbies - I was a fairly senior employee at Saga (travel division) for many years, first under RDH (until 2004), then under Goodsell and private equity (spit), and for a short time under Lance Batchelor (bless). I left in 2015, but remain in close contact with my fellow directors and members of staff.
I have since joined this board (no longer the BOD), am a PI with 40,000 shares or so, and advocated the business, but more so since RDH took control. I know he's chairman, but in my view, controversially perhaps, he'll take it private within a couple of years, assuming all goes in the direction he needs.
Euan Sutherland took over the helm from Lance and was almost immediately hit with Covid. He's had no experience of travel, and so with £500 million of loans racked up through new ships, and basically coming from a grey-suited corporate balance sheet and P&L account he has had little confidence in the travel division.
Robin Shaw, the CEO of Saga Travel left in February last year when he recognised that Euan didn't understand the travel industry, and since then RDH has come back, Chris Simmonds (previous Saga Holidays - NOT including Cruises) has returned as well as a number of Ex-Saga travel staff. They've bolstered their digital and their product teams; the Customer Service and delivery team have also been strengthened with original senior managers.
I have advocated the new 3-year insurance strategy that Lance put in - Older people like security and safety, knowing not only that they, but their belongings and their money are safe - there is no better business than Saga for this.
Competing on a price basis is the wrong way for the business - by competing on price, only the cheapest wins. Saga should and is competing on "we are better, we give you more time and our service is unrivalled". It's a good position to be in. The 3-year policies will come good.
Cheryl Agius left a couple of weeks ago, and has temporarily replaced by Euan. In my honest view, this is RDH beginning to take control, and if a new insurance boss isn't found in the next six months, my betting is that Euan will to all intents and purposes run it, plus something else so it's not a demotion (it's not), Chris Simmonds and Nigel Blanks, MD of Saga Cruises will take more control of the travel division under RDH's hands-on management.
I have also stated on many occasions that Saga needs to return to what it does best in travel - tours and cruises that give people a reason to travel with Saga again, and that they will return enforce later in the year. Today, the PR team have sent out a press release to say just that:
https://travelweekly.co.uk/articles/397774/saga-clients-will-be-among-the-first-to-start-trav
This is very useful.
The fact there are fewer sales in the first two weeks of Jan (peak booking period in the year), than in December indicates one of two things (or a combination)
1) Customers are expecting the inaugural to be cancelled due to restrictions
2) The peak booking season continues to be dire.
3) Saga's regular customers are already booked on, and new-to-Saga aren't booking (this is the least favourite option!)
A good understanding would be if there is an analysis of a cruise from September onwards as all my travel industry colleagues are saying that sales for the latter end of this year and next year are selling; spring and summer are very sluggish.
Banbury -
You're absolutely right about the ads being downloaded into your individual box. Take note of the ads on your Sky box - and you'll be surprised how many are very relevant to you. You'll be getting equity release ads, insurance, plus others. Depends on your shopping and online habits too - Big Brother really is here and from a marketing perspective it's great, helping us reach existing and new customers without wasting much - newspaper ads work but are very broad, and digital focus on the last thing you looked at (eg - on here right now I've John Lewis, hotel and Schroders company tracker as well as British Airways Sale - every one of them relevant to what I've just been looking at.
Titan and Saga's digital , data and analytics teams are best in class.
I'm not sure how the treasury will be able to reclaim furlough payments. Are you suggesting it would be just from PLC's with the requirement for them to pay it back before paying dividends? For multi-nationals, that would be a nightmare - repaying each country's individual government subsidies...
Banbury,
The way most advertising works on sky is called sky adsmart.
What you see and your TV is different from your neighbour, even watching the same show at the same time.
What I think is probably happening is one of two, or possibly two things.:
1) Titan has your email and address on file.. You've requested a brochure or a quote
OR
2) you fall into a demographic Titan WANT to attract. Without knowing you, I would suggest 55-68yrs old. Married but no kids at home. Working professional. Living home counties or south coastal Home owner valued £450k to £800k. Car owner. There will be other criteria Titan are interested in.
OR
Your postcode is the above and you just happen to be included.
The cost of advertising to you is about 6 pence per ad, as long as you don't fast forward or change channel before75% of it has been shown. I'm not totally convinced on adsmart... But if the demographic above fits, maybe it's not so bad!
I'm not negative on Saga or Titan in the slightest. It remains my biggest bet, and I'm not taking anything out. My view is that travel is eff'd in the short term. I've spoken to a number of colleagues in the industry since my last post and it is getting no better. In the longer term this is good for both titan and Saga, but in the short term, and as far as SP is concerned, I really don't think we're going to be moving to the £7 I think we'll still get to by end of this year.
I expect the resumption of international cruising is going to be put back until the end of May.
Sutherland taking over insurance isn't coincidental with RDH taking control of the rest. In my view a good thing. It shows RDH isn't just a shareholder, but has every intention of grasping control. If (big if) there is a new insurance CEO, they're Roger's recruit.