Big orders placed on the order book at 4.33pm creating an extended auction. Looks like there wasnt a seller to cross with.
Someone trying to load up in the auction
Certainly feels like something changed just after 3pm. Level 2 certainly changed with PEEL moving up and the rest of the MMs reacting very quickly to them.
What about the fact that mariposa is delivering 3-4k bopd on test and has only had 12 ft of the 120 ft (10%) of the net pay perforated.
Reserves don't currently reflect the findings of the LTT. What do you think is going to happen when they update the reserves based on this, which they plan to do at year end.
Civil works on PUT 12 planned to commence in Q3 2019, so drilling late 19 most likely. You are not telling anybody anything they don't know, its been in the public domain via the company presentation for over 2 months (and the share price as already reacted accordingly. The articles and social issues have also already been discussed on the board
You are trying to convince people you can predict future share prices and the most informed PI, but are about 2-3 months behind everyone else
The 3 key points from this article (dated Aug) are:
1. the judge ordered the Amerisur company, listed on the London stock exchange, to abstain "immediately" from carrying out actions aimed at carrying out the seismic project for Block PUT 12
2. Amerisur argue that "a Prior Consultation was completed with three indigenous communities, which allows more seismic operations in the block"
3. Amerisur reported that the company is analyzing the judge's ruling and will soon make an official pronouncement.
Following the article the company has since RNS'd...........
1. Dated 13th Sep.....At Putumayo-12 ("Put-12"), due to recent improvements in the area this seismic acquisition is now underway, and will allow the location of Coendu-1 and subsequent wells to be optimised, reduce drilling risk and potentially fine-tune the resources estimate for this prospect.
2. Dated 17th Oct......The recently acquired Coendu seismic data in Put 12 and Put 9 has now been processed and is being interpreted prior to finalisation of the first Coendu drilling location.
So now everyone can see the full picture and form their own opinions.
However I have never been to Columbia so you may want to disregard this post!
Baysil. I have been trying to track the fund holding on the register. According to morning star there are 73 funds holding 520m shares. I have tracked 57 which hold 503m, which means the ones i dont know yet total 16 holding 17m shares.
Virtually all of the selling funds have very few left. We are nearly there.
AXA Framlington UK Select Opps Fd 68.5m
Fidelity Special Situations Fund 51.8m
Marlborough Special Situations Fund 50.0m
River and Mercantile UK Eq Smlr Coms Fd 39.0m
American Funds SMALLCAP World Fund 25.2m
Marlborough UK Micro Cap Growth Fund 20.9m
L&G UK Smaller Companies Trust 20.1m
Fidelity European Smaller Companies Fund 19.9m
Invesco UK Smaller Companies Eq Fd (UK) 19.5m
L&G UK Alpha Trust 18.4m
River and Mercantile UK Recovery Fund 12.2m
Fidelity Special Values Plc 12.6m
Slater Growth Fund 12.5m
Fidelity UK Smaller Companies Fund 12.0m
MI Chelverton UK Equity Growth Fund 12.0m
River and Mercantile UK Equity Hi Alp Fd 9.1m
Hermes SDG Engagement Equity Fund 8.5m
Invesco Perpetual UK Smaller 5.2m
Aegon Intl Old Mutual UK Smaller Co A 7.8m
Grandeur Peak Emerg Mkts Opps Fund 7.4m
Kames UK Smaller Companies Fund 6.6m
iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap ETF 6.3m
Grandeur Peak Global Reach Fund 6.1m
AEGON Intl Kames UK Smaller Companies 5.8m
El Oro 3.9m
Janus Henderson Horizon PanEurpSmrComsFd 3.9m
Investec UK Small Comp Fund 3.8m
AWI BlackRock UK Smaller Companies 3.6m
Grandeur Peak Intl Opportunities Fund 3.5m
Grandeur Peak Global Opportunities Fund 3.5m
X MSCI Europe Small Cap ETF 2.7m
Undrly Stan Life UK Smaller Coms Pen 2.4m
Fidelity Europe MidSmlCap Eq Open Mother 2.2m
Hermes Global Small Cap Equity Fund 2.2m
Grandeur Peak Global Micro Cap Fund 1.6m
Lazard UK Smaller Companies Fund 1.6m
Majedie UK Smaller Companies Fund 1.2m
Slater Recovery Fund 1.1m
TB Amati UK Smaller Companies Fund 1.1m
Junior Oils Trust 1.0m
Majedie UK Equity Fund 0.8m
Fidelity International Fund 0.6m
BlackRock Growth & Recovery Fund 0.6m
JP Morgan UK Smaller Companies Fund 0.5m
AXA Framlngtn UK Mid Cap Fund 0.5m
Fidelity Inst UK 0.5m
RAM (Lux) Sys European Equities 0.4m
Maven Income and Growth VCT 5 0.2m
Hargreave Hale AIM VCT 0.2m
Hargreave Hale AIM VCT 2 PLC 0.2m
Threadneedle Latin America Fund 0.2m
BlackRock UK Equity Fund 0.2m
Fidelity Global Multi Asset Tact Mod Fd 0.2m
Fidelity Monde 0.1m
Fidelity Patrimoine 0.1m
Fidelity Global Multi Asset Tact Dfsv Fd 0.1m
Fidelity Selection Internationale 0.1m
I would like to think that the BOD are being more savvy than we expect but it may just be wishful thinking. They have a real time view of the share register and will now exactly when Rex is running out of shares. That is the time to pull the buy back out of the bag and do director deals if they are not in black out. Timing is everything and they shouldnt do them until they know the seller cant just eat up any buying demand.
I noticed from the GTE RNS today that they have being buying shares in very small but numerous quantity. It got me thinking that these small trades we have been seeing may be something similar, but I think i am just over thinking things unfortunately.
AMER does have the projects with better IRR than a share buy back Baysil I agree.
The only thing for me though is that they are only allowed to buy back 10% before the next AGM. This would only cost £12m (just over 2 months net back) and they wouldn't need debt as they have more cash than they need at the moment. Unless there is something imminent like an acquisition of Vetra to spoil the NSE deal, then it is just sitting in a bank generating no return
Imagine if tomorrow there was a RNS saying 120m shares had been removed from the register. Surely that would move the share price.
Looks like 575k trade missing
JTD I agree a share buy back would be great news. AMER already have the ability to do this under resolution 11 of the last AGM.
The resolution is unconditional in the sense that they could be buying back shares as we speak, but would not need to inform us have they already have permission to do so.
Thanks. Fingers crossed it will be be a success and then we can see which one of us was closer.
They said 4 weeks on the 17th October, so its not late, but due imminently.
Its pretty obvious that Indico as already spud and they said no further announcement until completion.
Eldo, what would you estimate the share price would open at if the results are indico are positive? Say a 5k bopd well.
On the day of the 500 bopd pint RNS, the share price opened up +14% and peaked at +23% within the first minute of trading. If you deal through a broker a not DMA you would have had no chance of getting in better than a +23% increase.
So I would guess at opening at least +30% and +50% within the first minute, by which time the sp will be 15p
New Stratus Energy are due to give a market update within the next two weeks, so one way or the other we will find out more about what is going on with Vetra.
I am hoping that AMER is intertwined in the deal, maybe to become the operator of PUT 8, with New Stratus being the non operator to move things forward more quickly.
I can understand why people think this may go to 10p or lower, but the reality is non of us know. We need to stick to fundamentals. Good news will see this rocket and bad news will see it below 10p.
Its like playing a game of higher and lower with a pack of cards at the moment. This price is so low its like being dealt a 4 and going lower. Sometimes a 2 or 3 comes out, but the probability is it will be a 5 or higher. However it does feel at times that the pack is fixed and someone has swapped all the high cards for 2's and 3's.
We just need some positive news, even if it is not a show stopper.
PPC up 8% on a 200 bopd well RNS.
Indico could be a 10k bopd well (3k net to AMER)
Any decent news will see this rally past 11.5p, even if only briefly. All shares bounce off the 200 day moving average periodically. Amers is around 15p. If I was in it just for a quick trade I would set a limit sell order at 14p/15p and forget about watching the price. Even 15p only takes it back to the pint success. A good reserve and drilling update re this and I would be amazed if it didn’t hit the 200 ema.
Even shares like AAOG have bounced from 10p to 15p on pretty meaningless news/rumours
Chaz this happended a couple of weeks ago but on a much larger scale. Look out for large delayed trade at the end of the day
could be a coincidence but it was last Thursday when someone offered to buy 500k in the auction. The next day we had all the small weird trades. Lets see if the same happens again tomorrow!!