Isn't there a rule that states if one company tries to aggressively takeover another, then any purchase price has to be equal to the highest share price paid by that company in the last 12 months?
That said, given no potential suitor is above 3% (for UK based) or 5% (for overseas) I don't see an aggressive takeover on the cards.
BF
I also use short tracker but that only shows positions that are individually greater than 0.5%, of which they aren't any.
Juxtapose posted a link to euroclear which gives the total shorts.
From memory there were 7m shorts in total or 0.58% (e.g. could be 2 positions of 0.29% each, that would not show on short tracker).
The key thing is there are no significant shorts in the market
I no longer set price targets to enter and exit as they become like a noose around your neck and stop you making the right decision. I posted last week how I never purchased GGP at 0.6p as I set a target of 0.55p. I missed out big time. I also never sold Sound Energy when I was in considerable profit, only to exit after Badile at a loss. I have learnt from my mistakes and now have a set of rules.
I only invest if i rate the company and enter and exit based on technical analysis. At present all the technical analysis suggests AMER is under valued. Combine this with my understanding of the business and I am confident to buy. Previously I would have set a target of say 10p and never bought. But if you buy at 11p or 13p like myself, in the long run it should not matter.
When it comes to exit I won't get greedy. As the saying goes, pigs get slaughtered. I accept I won't get out right at the top. If the drill bit is successful, you will see volume spike, rsi and other oscillators become over bought, the price go outside Bollinger band etc. I have no idea how far this will push the share price, but when the volume drops off I will decide whether or not the share price at the time represents good value or not.
I understand frustrations of the past, but I have taken into account a number of factors pre 2018 before I decided to invest.
1. Pipepline reducing transport costs to $4 per barrel.
2. Acquiring 888 mmbo of unrisked resources and getting $18m cashflow benefit in return.
3. Rex selling taking the share price below the intrinsic value
4. The oil price downturn inevitably impacting the share price and the opportunity presented by the downturn ending.
I'm also not sure why you are focussing on my entry date, price, exit strategy etc.
I try hard to focus my posts are facts, backed up by evidence, links and not get into personal discussions as I feel they add no value.
Normally all share options also vest on change of control. JW has 19m options outstanding.
He clearly has a vested interest in the share price, but surely would welcome a takeover post drilling campaign (assuming successful). Harrison and GC 6m each outstanding.
In reality, with upto 40m shares, he has now reason to purchase more. This is why the circa 700k he purchased this year give me more confidence. Most directors purchase to show willing, but rarely do they invest over £100k. Usually its £5k here and there.
I completely agree the disconnect between guidance and reality is the biggest issue with AMER.
However I can imagine the boards justification to funds being.......
1. Drill 1 N sand well and if successful drill up to 2 more. Due to dry N Sand the board would argue this is complete.
2. Drill 3 CPO wells. Indico will spud this year and possibly Sol. The board would argue the delays were caused by ONCG.
3. Drill 2 Put 8 wells. The board would argue the delays are caused by Vetra.
4. Drill 6 Put 9 & 12 wells. The board would argue the delay is due to social issues so decided to do more seismic.
I am not saying that the board have not disappointed, but their version of events would be that there are material reasons for not delivering and that this is the risk you take, operating in the environment we are in, with the partners we are in partnership with.
John Wardle has bought £130k of shares this year.
I have been invested here since about Feb based on the oil price, aggressive plans for exploration (which were due to start much earlier this year), and the high margins AMER operate in due to the infrastructure put in place during the downturn.
My average is now 13p, not that its relevant. Clearly I value the company much higher than today's share price and fully expect to make a significant return on my capital.
However, I don't have a target price as I can't see into the future. I will exit at the appropriate time regardless of share price, even if it is below 13p and I lose money.
" Sentiment is very important on AIM and the sentiment towards this co. has been awful for a long time now"
95% of retail investors lose money because they trade on emotion/sentiment. II's and successful retail investors take a contrarian view. They will buy when sentiment is bad and sell when the herd arrive thinking they will get rich quick, pay off their mortgage this time next year and retire to a holiday house in the bahamas
“the lack of M&A thru the downturn is understandable”...
During the downturn Amer aquired Pacific, Platino, Talisman & Petro at a cost of $18m dollars. They then farmed out part of the acquisition for $8m and received $27m of tax losses to carry forward.
The net impact was a $16m benefit to Amer and acquisition of 888MMBO unrisked resource.
I think rh is down under 10m now. He prob has one last selling spree before he is written into the history of Amerisur.
spudding Indico could provide the opportunity, but it needs a successful drill to send the share price north