Got big hopes for next week. Indico spud as long as we aren't let down. An update on the pumping station. Sellers seem to have run out of fire power and register seems to back this up. Oil found support on 200 day EMA, nearly back to $78 and with Iran sanctions in a few days, it would be the perfect week for some good news.
The investec fund (Rex Harbour) only has 3.8m left, but he may have shares in funds under other names
Grandeur Peak have bought 6m and Hargreave Hale a further 2m plus numerous other funds but split across many different fund names
They only had 2m shares left at the end of Sep, so no doubt already out by now
According to the register the biggest 5 funds selling are below. I know Rex had his money invested with Investec, but not sure of the background to Majedie?
Majedie UK Smaller Companies Fund -9,198,008
Majedie UK Equity Fund -6,486,992
Janus Henderson Horizon PanEurpSmrComsFd -5,505,891
Investec UK Small Comp Fund -4,648,333
Undrly Stan Life UK Smaller Coms Pen -4,527,041
In 2009 JW helped complete the sale of Emerald Energy for £532m or say $900m and the then FX rate. Revenue was $86m and profit $35m.
I would prefer to use this as a comparison.
I'm assuming even if the board wanted to, they could not publish when Rex is completely sold out.
However, I think if we write to them and ask for a copy of the shareholder register they would probably do so, as they need good grounds to reject and would probably like the info to be made public anyway.
I think we have reasonable grounds to request given the impact Rex has had.
https://brodies.com/blog/corporate/register-of-shareholders-when-can-you-say-no-to-a-request-for-inspection-by-a-member-of-the-public/
The next good news update should give an indication of how much fire power Rex has left? Hopefully not much
On the 10th Oct i posted the below. It is still happening as we speak, only now the 100k order is at 10.9p.
IIs are loading up as cheaply as poss.
"One thing I have noticed over the last week or so, is someone places a 100k buy order on the book at a lowish level. Every day the price gets taken down and filled. it started at about 12.8p. The next day it was 12.6p. Today it was 11.94p. Its like they are baiting the seller to go lower and lower"
If you wouldn't buy at 8p then the sensible option would be to sell at 11p. You would be getting a massive premium on the value you place on the share price.
No doubt you would sell at al loss, but better selling now before it drops to 8p
Baysil you are spot on. There are too many people that are either disingenuous or don't know what they are doing. As the legend Ian Brown would say..... https://g.co/kgs/Yo3qcD
5% to 10% is about 0.5p to 1p increase. Don't think anyone on this board is waiting for such an event
OR (as per RNS')........
(C) "Gross 2P reserves for Mariposa-1 at 31 December 2017 were 2.65MMBO and, given the stability of production and the cumulative volume recovered to date, the Company expects an increase of reserves to be booked at year end for this well".
OR
(D) "There are currently no reserves of any class booked for the U and T-sands in this area of the block. We will now work to evaluate the size of the discovery while continuing to produce the well"
By the way (B) increasing production will not increase reserves, it will mean we run out of oil faster
There is no news vacuum
"As the company moves into a busy period of drilling, it will be providing regular operational updates around these activities, alongside quarterly production updates, as per oil industry best practice disclosure."
Firstly I should say that I don't believe in share trade codes (1= RNS etc).
However I find it odd that at 9.46am, the share price drops and at the same time an order is placed on the book to purchase 111 shares (a £12 trade) at 10.5p.
ONCG are currently signing off their H1 accounts and in a closed trading period.
Will be interesting to see when their interim's are out, what forward looking statements they make if any.
3 CPO wells cost to amer is $6m. I'd be amazed if a decent proportion wasn't spent at half year given it was supposed to spud in may
Should say 145k barrels per month
Based on 145k bopd at $50 netback, with minimal capex for balance of year. Each month that passes adds a theoretical 0.6p to the share price (less some opex).
By year end, given the much reduced capex this year, cash will be circa $80- $90m based on 5k bopd