Member Info for Doc83

Absolutely, one day closer. I thought the argument of waiting 90 days to pass so as to not bias the LC trial was very plausible, even though some disagree. Today was day 90, so the call the last patient(s) should have been made today…any longer and it wouldn’t be day 90 data.
Therefore, I will be waking up tomorrow genuinely hoping this RNS finally lands. Either way, there’s only 14 market days left of February, beyond which I don’t think any reasonable person would consider “early 2022”.

It is now very close.

Elsol, I hope so! £35 would do quite nicely.

Maybe the NIH think they have found a great therapeutic that actually works, and so all these average drugs are being kicked out… ;)

Andybe4, you are talking nonsense. They have not let the day 35 data just sit there without being analysed until 90 days is up.

Bruce, I can’t see how they could delay it for too long. But they might want to get a proper presentation ready, line up some more jobs, agreements with third parties etc, so that the RNS has some detail and meat to it.

Skippy, completely agree. But it wouldn’t be hard to delay it with them saying they needed to check the data again.

As a member of the much maligned January club, I’m now trying to temper my expectations!

J-Sam, I’d agree with all that. March onwards I would not consider early. Not much we can do but wait patiently.

SBM - that could well be true. But then we're back to guessing. We know for a fact LPD was no later than 10/11/21 so can definitely work from that date.

Also, the RNS for progression to ACTIV-2 P3 was almost immediate. RM confirmed in an interview "we found out just last night" and they RNS'd that following morning, so that would lead me to believe they are on the ball and would have done the same for LPD.

Andybe4 - your post seems to suggest they will wait to analyse the 90 day data before publishing top line day 35 data? That's not how I see it. They just have to get the 90 days out of the way and the data obtained from the patient so as to not bias the answers from the patient. Full analysis of long Covid and 90 day data can wait. That is unless the day 35 data is looking average and they are hoping the 90 day might be better... I don't think (hope) that is the case, though,

I have day 90 as tomorrow. Presumably they then need to contact the patient and fill in the questionnaire/paperwork and log it, even if they don't have to analyse it. I'm not expecting anything this week. Will be very happy if I'm proven wrong!

I hope so. It will be mildly depressing if it goes down and back below the placing price.

You never know, we could finally get the long awaited RNS. Although I do see the logic of the debate last week and waiting the 90 days. So more likely to be Monday, 14th Feb onwards. IMO.

I don’t see why some get so offended with people guessing where the SP could get to. It’s all guesswork and opinions.
Even RM himself in an old presentation gave ideas of what a company with a blockbuster drug could be worth… £8bn IIRC.

If results are what we hope, I’m guessing we’ll be selling more than a few dozen courses of our drug! Some simple price to sales and earnings calculations based on fairly conservative sales gets you to some serious numbers as far as market cap goes. Certainly north of £7 per share.

Andybe4, I now consider you more disruptive than Jwd222.

I actually ignore nearly all of what you say. Most disturbing is that I used to defend you.

Andybe4, you really don’t help yourself.

Manifesto, it seems the plenty of stock available to buy… for Polygon at least!

Matml74 - indeed, I do keep forgetting that. Certainly reassuring protection against an outright hostile bid.

Even so, I’d much rather see another II take a position than Polygon continuing to increase. I’m fairly confident they and the MMs are the reason for the SP behaviour in recent months. I can only hope that if/when successful P3 lands, it will work in our favour.

As for when we find out, I have no idea now after the debate today. But I have now lowered my expectations to it being as late as March 31st… I can’t be disappointed then!

Put it another way, what are the advantages of Polygon growing their stake further? They can already block a takeover if it’s a low ball offer. They’ll definitely have a seat at the negotiation table with 18%.

Other than making us feel a little more confident, I don’t see any.

Ndn71 - yes, wouldn’t be surprised to see us head back up towards £2. Then back down again slowly when Polygon go for 19%. :D

Ndn, they don’t need 18% to block a takeover. I’ll maintain I’m wary of them owning too much more.

Absolutely spot on, Albert82.

And Ghia, also bang on the money. I would rather Polygon didn’t continue to accumulate shares. They have plenty already and much more I see as a negative. We don’t want them wielding too much power and influence.

Docdaneeka, I knew Gunto was joking! :D

I've just had a Zoom call and have 77 new posts to read on here... I'm up to 14:10 :/