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Looks like it all depends on how many tests are used per day to reduce the stockpile then. An decent increase is needed if circa 325m are in stock and waiting to go otherwise at 7 million a week it’s around 11 months to go through them. Orders would need to be in advance, say three months, and the stock wouldn’t go to zero so say another two months advanced planning, and that still leaves 6 months until new tests are needed.
All guesswork still of course
@computer I don’t disagree with your theory there and originally I was saying something similar on timescalesbut with different figures (although they turned out to be wrong).
The big question re government contracts are:
1. How much of a stockpile do the government truly have? Any facts and figures welcome
2. Will LFT usage per week increase as society opens up maybe as a condition for relaxing rules further in June? Or will the vaccine programme be seen as enough for this?
3. Will a new less invasive test be fast tracked by the government as more people are likely to do them?
I agree that private contracts might be the cash cow in ODX and hopefully we could hear some good news on that soon
So many conflicting stats on this but the link computer has just dug out has actually reassured me even if it was meant to be a deramp! I had just looked up a load of pillar 2 testing that LFTs fall under and it seemed ridiculously low, some days lower than 100k hence my previous post. However if it’s 5-7m a week at the moment which the latest link shows then that’s up to 364m a year! Much better
I’ll see if I can dig the link out for LFT usage that I was looking at. Very happy to be proven wrong as this share doing well opens up a few opportunities for me :-)
If we (the U.K.) had 100m innova units in stock and we were using 100k a day, that would be over 2.7 years worth of stock! I just don’t think there is an urgency to create the sovereign test
We don’t know because there have been no announcements either way. But just look at the DHSC and the MHRAs track record of timescales and approvals etc. Things tend to change across various different companies. That tweet is an older tweet now and Lord Bethel is pretty good at giving decent updates. I would’ve expected some idea of what was going on if we were close to a May announcement. The latest figures I saw for LFT use in the U.K. was around 80k a day. Hardly the 2 million the government were quoting a while ago. That’s official figures though so I guess ones that have been reported, I bet there are many more used and not reported and also even more than that sent out and then discarded so units per day is prob higher but still not 2m.
Things do change, let’s focus on future announcements rather than rehashing old stuff time and again.
There is an NHS drive through centre for anyone with Covid symptoms on the grounds of Manchester airport. Part of the national testing program so could have been there. It’s nothing to do with travel, very much a government testing facility.
Unless they say ‘Get your Tesla deposits ready!’
Shows rampers and derampers alike can’t be trusted on here. Poor form showing yourself up with two accounts. Baffles me what some people do
JohnHenry, just waited for the market to open as soon as possible asked for a quote on a trade for x number of shares. No problem. Quote available to take my shares at 77.555555. Bid and ask remained relatively stable for a short period but quote only 77. Then it went into auction
Ask 83 and Bid 81*
To be fair I wanted to sell 25% of my holding on the bell to buy back after 30 mins as the drop was predictable. The ask on IG still showed 83 but the quote was 77 so didn’t bother. That was literally 10 secs after opening and again at 1 and 2 mins.
‘IF’ it’s 374m then the next big variable is profit per test. Until that’s known the share price can’t be predicted. 50% and then it’s a massive re-rate. Lower and I’m not so sure
Gone to Auction on IG just now
How do the official figures compare to Innova? They are happy to use that at the moment so as long as it’s better then it could be part of the sovereign test, along with others.
Good call. Well played!
Big sell off in the morning with the 10% crew making a quick buck. Expect this to drop back a bit first thing with no further updates then hopefully a steady rise in the afternoon to consolidate this share price ready for the next leg up. Some decent trading opportunities if that’s your bag imo.
Bought in here on the back of the avct presentation. Now hold mainly ODX but with a decent chunk in both AVCT and ABDX now. I think this share is the dark horse and the one that will surprise when the volume of units required is fully realised by the wider market.