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Wasn’t down to his article*

With all due respect to Gary, I don’t think today’s share price increase, backed up by volume was down to his article. Some decent trades which has enabled the seller to offload a significant number of shares into the demand which means they are closing to finishing.

I would mark today as a reversal from an oversold position backed up with volume. We know the spud is on its way which should provide additional volume and confirm a new trend. A bigger picture is flow testing on H-3 is completed no later than 7 trading days from now. A market mover in its own right!

All indicators are suggesting a reversal from an oversold position is on the cards.

https://dfsstock.com/2019/06/29/eco-atlantic-oil-gas-ltd-eco-l-mfi-reading-under-the-microscope/

Thanks for sharing. It is quite possible that the writer is active on this board.

Potential is here for all to see and when investors realise that this is unlike previous exploration plays that have been chasing elephants but we’re only funded for a couple of drills.

This is not a one trick pony! An unbelievable opportunity at these levels and the next catalyst potentially only 8 trading days away in the hammerhead appraisal.

With confirmation that hammerhead 2 has been drilled to depth and the rig has mobilised to an alternative prospect on Adv*n. It’s fair to conclude that on completion of the flow test on H-3 by the 10th July appraisal news will be due.

I look forward to seeing how successful the appraisal results have been and the size of the prospect so we can definitively allocate a valuation towards this prospect.

The bigger point that I believe the market is missing is hammerhead-3 is currently being flow tested and this will be completed no later than the 10th July ( 8 trading days ) and that with hammerhead-2 more than likely already drilled to depth as two drill ships are active on the prospect. It’s not the spud that will move the share price but results from the appraisal.

With our first two drills based of the same play and Keith Hill confirming in a recent interview that unitization talks are already taking place this will be the first near term catalyst that will underpin the value of our company.

I believe a large institution from the initial fund raise is repositioning with the large late reported sell trades feeding the buys that are portrayed as sells. Just part of the fun and games. Relax, Hammerhead is coming and that can’t be ignored!

Pacific leader arrives at 23:01 hours today.

Spud imminent!

Following completion of the first two wells we will have £20m in the bank. I am personally of the opinion that hammerhead could exceed 1 billion barrels but I base my figures on 500m barrels for purpose of illustration.

Hammerhead - 500 million barrel discovery

@7% unitization = 35mmbs @15% = 5.25mmbs @ $5 rising to $8 on completion of unitization allows $26.25m worst and $42m best case.

@ 10% unitization = 50mmbs @15% = 7.5mmbs @ $5 rising to $8 on completion of unitization allows $37.5m worst and $60m best case.

So best case in ground valuation based on above plus cash would provide a £67m valuation or roughly 37p with no value attributed to remaining undrilled prospects.

So we wait for hammerhead results that are due for completion, latest 10th July. We also know that the Liza appraisal took 10 weeks. So we have a high probability based on what we know that these appraisal results will fall before JL and underpin the valuation.

I believe hammerhead will come in at around a billion barrels and we can attribute 63p to hammerhead. 11p cash. Chasing 210p of potential unrisked gains on the first two drills with no additional value for the remaining prospects.

284p is my attempt at a basic valuation based on two discoveries. With eight throws of the dice I could not be more convinced that the current valuation is more than underpinned, and whilst the share price will drop if we have a duster, it will just recover into the next exploration drill in anticipation.

AIMO.

Alexios - can I ask where you heard this?

https://www.tullowoil.com/media/press-releases/zaedyus-exploration-well-makes-oil-discovery-offshore-french-guiana

You can see how mirror image exploration will open up a new play in Guyana dependant on trap and seal and why production casing is being installed.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/325860236_Liza_Field_Development_-_The_Guyanese_Perspective

Liza 2 appraisal started on or around the 27th April 2016 and was announced to the market on the 30th June 2016, a period of 10 weeks from start to finish with further analysis of the flow data ongoing.

So what we know is that hammerhead 3 commenced drilling around the end of April beginning of of May, the flow test for hammerhead is due for completion on the 10th July 2019 which provides a similar lead time to the last reported appraisal in 2016 of 10 weeks.

Fireworks are about to hit, with it now highly probable that hammerhead appraisal results hit the market before the first drill resultant from JL. Those that have derisked prior to JL results might just come to regret it imo.

I don’t know of many wildcat exploration plays that install production casing as standard. Iv started to spend my profits ??

With hammerhead flow testing finishing a week before we are likely to get anywhere near initial target. July promises to be an exciting month. Full to the brim.

To date it’s been a preconception that Exxon et al. Provide timelines for appraisal drilling. As such I have done my research and will offer my opinion on this as I suppose that is what these boards are all about.

In a recent interview KH from Africa Oil suggested that unitization talks were ongoing with regards to the Hammerhead discovery extending across into our block. We know that a second drill ship has joined the appraisal of Hammerhead as a Tertiary discovery and that it is likely that it’s development may be fast tracked due to its size and Capex. Their is enough evidence to suggest that break even of a tertiary discovery in production is $25 a barrel or less.

As such I have concluded that whilst the appraisal is taking time, Eco themselves have said their isn’t any point in them drilling a well to confirm what is already their as it is a waste of money and as such for the appraisal and more importantly development of this discovery, a lot needs to be discussed between the six parties involved and government before anything is likely to be announced.

We also have a deeper Cretaceous target below Hammerhead that could form part of a drill and further Unitization talks will be needed if they have hit oil their too.

It’s coming, I believe it will be worth the wait.

AIMO.

IJWT - spot on. To be clear it is my opinion that a dry hole on the first well would see a recovery in the share price going into the second drill similar to that of Chariot oil during its first campaign. A fall would be inevitable but with cash on the sidelines to average down it is not a difficult to manage risk.

In the unlikely event both initial wells were dry, we would still return the following year and look at the Cretaceous play which would again would see the appetite return for the stock thus insulating the share price as long as time is on your side.

Liz 1 has a $35 break even point and Liz 2 $25 as per the Hess investor presentation. A shallower target would be the lower of the two I.e. hammerhead and with unitization, the bottom line of the current market cap is underpinned and why we see broker notes of 125p even before a discovery.

Any successful appraisal results from Hammerhead prior to our own results would also light a match under the stock.

This imo is the exploration play of the century in terms of risk v reward and from all my research I cannot see anything that even comes close.

2 + 6 = 8 wells

But yes if we drill 4 consecutive wells that are dry I will not only eat my hat but the share price on the first one to two drills will be especially insulated imo

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/guyaneseonline.net/2018/12/18/guyanas-oil-projected-cost-for-exxons-liza-phase-1-slashed-by-us700m/amp/

‘A study conducted by Calgary-based RS Energy Group, analysing the top 50 offshore developments and shale, stated that Guyana’s Liza has the lowest breakeven cost. “RS Energy recently ranked the 50 top offshore developments and play and… ranked the Liza development as the lowest breakeven lowest of global offshore developments …keep in mind what Exxon said—this is come of the best carbonate they have seen,” Lynch said.’

Now bearing in mind hammerhead is a tertiary discovery and a shallower discovery it is fair to say the development costs could stand to be lower still. With terms from government favourable by comparison, Guyana stands well insulated from oil price fluctuations.

Valuation

With up to 10% of hammerhead likely extending into our block, a base line valuation will soon be attributed to the pending resources. Not only that, the Company has a cash balance today of approximately US$35 million and is funded for its share of up to a further six potential new exploration or development wells in addition to the Jethro Lobe and Joe wells. That in itself offers a route back to drilling and a recovery in the share price from any potential dry wells. Imo the share price will recover regardless and it is this chance of success that limits the potential downside.

You are absolutely right in what you say Maverick but the probability is in favour of news before the JL results based on the time that has elapsed to date, also based on what we know.

At the end of the day we now make our own news. Many have or are in the process of re-positioning on the basis of desired risk going into results. Some will retain exposure with hammerhead results in mind causing jittery vibes within today’s market.

Those that have the appetite for risk in a market that doesn’t have the tolerance could be exposed to mind blowing returns on a number of fronts with one of the most exciting exploration risk reward plays on the world market.