Member Info for Diversified

It’s funny how people hear things.

Elisa lab based saliva test to be completed by August allowing for 2 month lag - new POC test will be in place by October.

That in itself without any sales will send the share price sky high. A saliva based rapid POC test. October. Yes this will be followed by CE, validation and sales but this kicks in from the October design freeze

It would be reasonable to assume that the lateral flow (saliva) Point of care test would easily achieve the 800k a week spare capacity and that it is reasonably easy and low cost to increase capacity if or when required given the most recent fundraise.

More color to be added to these Mologic tests.

It’s not just the 200k test a week that will underpin the current market cap. You can’t make a statement like that without knowing the end buyer, in this case the government have placed a purchase order.

Remaining capacity of 800k lateral flow test capacity a week to be allocated to the Mologic tests. It’s the POC lateral flow test that peeks my interest and the market is yet to get its teeth into it.

Plenty of room for AVCT and ODX for the Saliva based test, pricing point will be of interest

What are everyone’s thoughts on the Saliva antigen lateral flow test with mologic?

To be used at home, business and airports.

Likely to cost under £10 a test.

Very little discussion on this!

What do people make of the Saliva antigen test - Lateral flow?

To be used at home, work and airports!

This test should cost under £10

- 200k tests per week
- £9 unit
- 70% min margin

- 10.4m tests x £9 = £93.6m @ 70% =£65.5m annual profit

This is from UK-RTC alone and accounts for 10% of total capacity.

Completely agree.

An antigen POC lateral flow test with Moderna that gives 10/15 minute results would more than justify a similar market cap to AVCT.

An inflection point for the share price will also be the government promotion of the antibody test and mass rollout.

I have seen the market cap of many companies become over extended over the years and their is a high probability that even the most unrealistic of targets could be achieved.

Everything appears to be falling into place with one less rumor (funding) to hold this back.

Forward catalysts:

- Moderna - Elisa - Global Sales
- Moderna - CE approval - new tests
- Moderna - New test development
- UK-RTC - Design Freeze
- UK-RTC - CE Approval
- UK-RTC - Sales
- UK-RTC - Gov. Promotion
- Moderna - New Test Global Sales

News flow drives share prices. This is exactly what we have here with a market cap below £100m.

I also see it as a strong possibility for Moderna or Abbington to become subject of a takeover or merger with ODX.

Exciting times.

Just you.

It’s a major derisking event for the consortium. Professional investors will average up as the risk becomes smaller.

Game on, was on BBC NI tonight, no doubt English BBC tomorrow or the coming days. I now can’t sleep :-)

Continued committed long term spending by all within the consortium speaks volumes for the confidence they all have for the future. Anyone would think that they know of a big order coming their way.

Never reported but one of the reasons you see market makers shift from 58 to 59 on nothing particularly significant to note.

Many trades much of 10k tend not to be reported so as to allow the market makers to take their position for the day depending on the underlying demand for shares. Very clever.

and the market makers know this when they will take over 100k shares in one trade

I believe that the design freeze could of been completed ages ago but for the fact that they are aligning other aspects of process together logistically. They can’t afford a significant timescale between design freeze and mass rollout.

With the government wanting to promote the concept to start increasing national awareness their will be many questions, and the press will want to see a short period between design freeze and roll out for it to be considered a success. Timing has always been a key factor for the press, such as how quickly they achieved 100k tests a day and now 250k tests a day.

IMO, the price continues to rise in anticipation of a design freeze. This will be a key de-risking milestone for the consortium that the market will largely try and position itself for prior to the event, it also helps knowing that an intraday RNS is more than possible. I am fully expecting a move and consolidation into the 70’s at least prior to this event.

We had no news from Friday morning when it broke out of a consolidation pattern, we have no news today (yet), but we are one step closer and the volume that initiated the rise on Friday will continue into this week. We had further evidence from the telegraph pointing towards mass rollout, what more could we ask for.

Our strategic partnership and additional four COVID tests will receive more attention in the coming days as the unfortunate second wave with China now reluctantly reporting new increased infection being the last thing an otherwise secretive nation would want to do, especially in Beijing. This is very concerning for all that are now going back to work and exposing themselves to this silent enemy.

This stock may not be for everyone and a market of opinions allow others to draw their own conclusion, but one thing is for sure. Testing is key in the fight against Covid and to enable it to try and protect a crippling economy, it needs some form of plan to get it back to work. Test test test.

After reading a number of posts on various boards and twitter over the weekend, I am of the the opinion that many underestimate the significance of the government led consortium and why this antibody test will be the U.K.’s test of choice.

A fully integrated NHSX antibody test that enables the government to fully integrate home test kit results alongside personal and government records enables the government to track historical infection rates throughout the U.K. on an ongoing basis. Unlike other antibody testing kits of which their is or will be many, the U.K.-rtc gold standard test will be the test of choice for this reason. I really don’t think the market fully anticipates this, either through a lack of research or a feeling that it is to good to be true. This will not only help assist the governments cause for obvious reasons but for long term reasons, for example if/when a suitable vaccine is ready for deployment, what higher priority candidates will next the vaccine first (helping with strategic deployment).

Odx in their last announcement showed their commitment to the cause having dropped other areas of their business giveN what is likely to be full capacity demand and high rates of return that have been impossible to ignore from w top level corporate level when financial planning has presented the scale of the opportunity.

I think the design freeze will derisk the investment which is why it will head to or around the £1 level before commencing a steady increase into the autumn as the government promotes the project, a project that will ever progressively promoted by the U.K. government thus increasing the share price further.

A lack of investor relations that has help paint the picture from a corporate perspective is what has presented an opportunity at lower prices as many have had to speculate as to what the outcome will be here, IMO watch this space.

Considerable upside potential also exists from its additional 4 tests, and government validation will help add credibility to these tests indirectly when reaching out to the global market.

Don’t forget the U.K. often use, ‘world leading’, ‘best in class’ phrases. With the successful outcome of this test likely to help the government save face as all parts of the consortium ring home the message that the extremely complex fully integrated test structure has been completed in record time for Mass screening.

Who are trading the pattern for 10% will always miss the bigger gains when real strength exists behind the stock.

Uk-RTC

I think this antibody test needs to be put into perspective given the low level of investor relations to date perhaps not helping with the significance of this government requested development.

@NHSX app - An integration that allows mass adoption and distribution through a carefully planned distribution network to allow the government to monitor the infection rate throughout the UK on demand.

Yes we will have competing tests that will be in the supply chain but the significant potential that the uk-rtc will benefit from is that the NHS and Uk government have a test of their own and this is it.

It’s all about the fully integrated service this test will be provide with free promotion from the UK gov that rings home the significance imo.

Group revenue - gross margin - 63.4%. - 2019

Now I know the volume of sales and revenue will increase significantly with Covid diagnostic tests which will skew the numbers but it gives a very good indication as to how prominent Covid related sales margins are likely to be given the strategic shift that was announced recently!

Sweet dreams :-)

I have tried to run some numbers based on the assumption that the combined capacity of tests through the consortium at 50m tests a year.

Based on those numbers and a reported £10 pricing point, with five members to the consortium let’s say taking 20% of the total revenue. At £100m to ODX a year from this single test without increasing capacity internationally or achieving a higher pricing point, even at a 20% net margin which is significantly less then the reported 40/60% margin most diagnostic test operate at. We can assume a minimum annual profit of £20m without the other 4 tests a year. These numbers in my view are conservative but highlight the reasons for the change in focus towards Covid tests and the better returns on investment.

At the current market cap, you can start to see the undervaluation which is down to investor communication to the market. Imo.

These are rough figures, my research will continue as I look into gross margin on historical tests in the company accounts.

*updated on progress

I think to refer back to the newspaper article that highlights the extent of the opportunity and the strategic significance to the government really rings home the potential:

https://twitter.com/jimbethell/status/1254304000805146625?s=21

But nothing should stop them from talking about the four tests outside of the fast track test in terms of IR.

The last RNS said that this will update the market on design freeze so we can expect to be updated on process.

It depends what comes first, CE approval of the further 3 tests over and above the fast track antibody or Elisa. Further sales within the 15 countries that have started the process of ordering further Elisa tests.

Newsflow should start to pick up.

It has also crossed my mind that mologic Ltd could be a good fit for Omega and that a merger could be favorable to both companies, especially given Mologic’s cash position.