George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
Krakenoil is defo not a troll, believe every word he posts, can get too passionate at times but hey, take that anyday over what LSE, L3, Fernan, Itsza, Iffy Squiffy, oiluser, etc etc say on here.
DD
KO hope the cheque is in the post!
Also agree.
My oh my how the trolls love a bit of red......L3 filtered (again) from this morning as sooooo obvious he doesn’t hold, iffy squiffy been in the cage for ages as he too doesn’t hold but pretends he does. As for Fernan, well he is monkeys best biatch at the moment and has been for a while, another poster that pretended to hold but never did (nobody does fundamental analysis to death yet doesn’t have a view on fair value- unless like F you don’t hold in the first place).
Given current market sentiment what exactly was expected from today’s news!.....put a small short spread bet on this morning and closed before end of play (just a play really to relieve the boredom of all the bullshit postings on here).
It only needs LSE to show up and we have a full house I see.
Onwards and upwards my friends.
DD
You can stay, £100 per night! Lol
Guess the market has now priced in some (non material!) K impairment so should now be onwards and upwards.....less downward risk IMO.
DD
“The three-well DC4 drilling programme is ongoing and remains on schedule with production onstream from the first DC4 well”.
L3 or should I say oiluser.........please sell up, I am more than happy to buy your shares.
Stops hit today, time to buy, if alleged investors on this board can’t stomach a 50% paper loss then they shouldn’t be here in the first place (Warren B).
DD
L3 is oiluser, bought here when realised it was value, now bottling itband sold up.........the monkey in the cage told me!.
Had to threaten him with a permanent butt plug for iffy squiffy.....soon squealed, as I imagine iffy will when monkeys mates make him their biatch!.
Keep smiling folks, value will out in the end (Poo and Enq).
Think it is 4 wells for dc4.
Total 25 and so far with dc3 there are 21.
sporazeno is a poster on another BB, sorry was a copy and paste.
Thanks Tom. Have only just checked their website though and on their H1 presentation they do split the UK/EU professional and retail income, so some of my numbers/assumptions are incorrect. That said as can be seen below, the eps still works out to the same as previously posted. Apologies for the errors, not deliberately trying to mislead.
Hi sporazene
From their H1 presentation I mistakenly used the Q2 UK/EU retail and professional split (31% and 69%) rather than the H1 which was 41% (retail) and 59% (professional). This does show that retail decline for Q2 was more indicative of what their yearly forecast split will be of 30%/70%.
According to their H1 presentation (on their website) where they provide the income split, the UK/EU “retail” income H1 was nearly £61m, again annualising gives £122m. Once again going on their forecast impact due to ESMA for FY19 of 34% then year end rev compared to last year could be 569 - (0.34 x 122) = c £528m (a 7% reduction rather than my original 6% reduction). As H1 total rev on like for like basis was down 6% (sorry used 8% previously for some reason) then will use mid point of 6.5%, this gives FY19 rev of £532m, pbt £239m, pat £194m, eps still c 52p. So will stick to my previous post share price for fair value of 520p to 624p.
Just for balance, consensus forecast is for a 22% reduction in eps to 48.25 with FY19 rev of £519.5m, which is a 9% reduction compared to FY18. H1 implies it could be only a 6% reduction, so you takes your money and makes your choice - will they beat or not!.
DD
Sorry typo, that should have been “similar calcs to previously posted....”
DD
Just been catching up on the H1 numbers and trying to work out year end forecasts (using similar class to previously posted in Dec).
For H1 69% of UK/EU revenue was “professional” clients so only 31% of this income (“retail”) would have been impacted by ESMA. Unfortunately IGG do not give the income splits for the group but last year the UK/EU “professional and retail” income was 63% of group revenue (so having nothing else to go on will use this split).
So UK/EU “professional and retail” income for H1 is circa £251m x 0.63 = £158m, thus UK/EU “retail” revenue is 0.31 x £158m = £49m (this will be impacted by ESMA). Simply annualising based on H1 (assuming not too much seasonality with IG income) then “retail” income FY19 is circa £98m. From last years capital markets day IG forecast that ESMA impact would be a 34% (taking their mid range forecast) decline in UK/EU “retail” income for FY19 compared to FY18 revenue, so this would be about £33m (98 x 0.34).
FY19 total group income forecast is £569m (FY18 total revenue) minus £33m is £536m (a Net 6% reduction compared to FY18). Given that H1 total revenue was a stated 8% lower than H1 last year then I’m inclined to use a mid point reduction of 7%. So FY19 total revenue c £529m. With a pre tax margin of 45% that gives £238m pbt, after tax £193m, eps 52p. PE I reckon of 10 to 12 is more likely so a share price of 520p to 624p.
Still think I will keep these on my watch list for a while longer (but now towards the bottom of the list!).......but who knows!.
Good luck.
DD
Happy Birthday White, keep the faith, value will out in the end...........ffs been saying that for nearly 3 years now! lol.
KO, know your a passionate chap who says it as you see it (not having a pop) but do worry you get too stressed out watching this every minute every day.........do yourself a favour, don’t look at all for a couple of days, you will realise that a “watch kettle never boils”.
DD
Has that chuffing iffy squiffy escaped again?
Hi Jan, how’s it hanging?
Yep I agree, enjoy reading Romaron’s posts, breaks up the number crunching posts (not that I mind them - providing it’s not Fernan or any other folk with a hidden agenda).
Anyway, looks quite perky here today for a change and perhaps the 5k algos have all dried up now.
Onwards and upwards
DD
Jan
Yep, sneaky little so and so, oh well monkey got a new baitch to play with.
Given his post today was old news, had already been mentioned on this board some time ago and was in the public domain since Sept last year, will leave it to others to decide what his motive was, but for me it’s not rocket science (never did trust him, crunch numbers, get respect and credibility then deramp......yep sneaky!).
DD
Jan
Told you the guy was a deramper, I foolishly apologised not long ago!, not now as his recent posting is a blatant deramp and the guy has never held here IMO just uses it as a way of crunching numbers and boosting his ego.
This is old news and priced in. From the Interims in Sept 2018:
“The Directors consider the merits of the claim to be poor and the Group is defending itself vigorously. The Group has not made any provisions in respect of this claim as the Directors believe the claim is unlikely to be successful; and in any event the Directors believe the chances of an outcome exposing the Group to material damages are remote.”
Fernan back in the cage you go, should have trusted my initial instincts about you and not let you out in the first place. You have always posted negatively about ENQ, never posted up a share price forecast (because it would have been too positive) and now just trolling, bye bye.
DD
Hi Matt,
Some negative read across from Plus (their numbers always looked odd, say no more!).
Good luck, still watching.
DD
Our resident troll obviously forgot which user name he was using this morning. The dot troll he obviously set up to no doubt thumbs up his own postings.........what a sad and desperate troll we have.
Beware the cunning yet stupid trolls.
DD
.Minerb
Filtered
Dol
That’s why it’s got the nickname of the Chronic Investor!
DD
E121
Thanks for passing on your knowledge about RCF/EBITDA, appreciated.
Sp action typical Enq - never the expected, surprised tbh that it finished blue!.
Needs ENQ IR / AB himself to bend the ear of the crap analysts and get the rerating it deserves now......RBC got everything wrong including their target price. Who (snigger snigger) in their right mind would short on the back of brokers forecasts, jeez, it’s well known that they are crap at forecasting, oh well!.
Onwards and upwards
DD