Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
ENQ day, most oilers up a lot today, not our boy though. Did look like a seller all day chucking off in 5k chunks holding it back. Oh well, always next week to catch up.
All the best for 2019 chaps.
To all holders.
“The Kingdom still needs Brent at a lot higher levels to break even. The IMF estimated this breakeven at almost $88 a barrel.”
HTTPS://www.rt.com/business/447208-saudi-arabia-highest-budget/
Be surprised if they get their $88 in 2019 but who knows, one thing seems likely though going on what’s happened lately, and that is to expect the unexpected.
DD
Itsa
Don’t mind at all that you are shorting my investment, what I do mind is gloating and you clearly gain some perverse pleasure from winding up other holders, it’s not your profit that gives you a kick but kicking people when their down - that’s the action of a grade A scumbag.
In the cage you go.
DD
Peel Hunt Buy 775
(I had 759 to 795, so 777 mid, will live with that).
Jan, hats off to you and I’ve been topping up too........not as much as you it must be said as already too heavy in Oiler’s and want to sit on cash and cherry pick some more non oiler bargains........”Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful”.
I imagine, if Squiffys past is anything to go on, that filling your boots Jan is the correct thing to do as no doubt the best fear barometer on this board is moaning and shitting his pants, thus be greedy my friend!.
Can’t be arsed to post up prod, rev, EBITDA forecasts........done that and settled on a target of 55p, so roll on 55p+.
All the best.
DD
Hi Matt and thanks.
Just pondering that this will not reach a PE of say 15 but will derate to about 10-12. When you look at Plus and CMX this is a higher rating and you could argue it’s out of kilter with sector competitors. Probably just over thinking, not helped by the recent drop when I thought it had gained strong support. Dilemma is timing the entry, I can sell easier than I can buy!.
Hope all is well elsewhere for you and hopefully we will get a Santa rally.
DD
Should be 2,700
Yep excellent results and URI up over 3% in after hours.........so hopefully this will provide some upward momentum tomorrow as well. Bit disappointed in the share price action today but it’s still phenomenally cheap IMO. I reckon year end eps could be at least 180p now which puts this on a forward PE of just under 9, it’s five year average from memory is 15, so a potential 62% upside and yet given its price weakness I’m beginning to think I must be missing something?. This is not only massively undervalued IMO it’s a very sound play against Brexit and sterling weakness......so what’s not to like!.
DD
MO
All the best and hopefully you will pop back in and say hi sometime. Appreciated your posts, just didn’t understand half of them, my ineptitude not yours.
Stay lucky and healthy.
DD
Hi Matt and thanks. To be honest a poster on stocko mentioned the capital markets day presentation data but he got his numbers wrong.
Do you think this has been re-rated at less than PE15, or is it simply down to macro issues/concerns - but would still think that would be good for IG (sorry for going on about it buts it’s bugging me!).
Hopefully a better day tomorrow!
Good luck
DD
Doh, make that share price 65p (lol, error because everybody mentions 60p party,should be 65p party).
Romaron
I come from the Black Country and “shag” is also used in the same context. As well as “Skin”, “Blade”, “Mush”, “Mucka”.
DD
Pelle
Good: mid prod forecast for this year increased by 1k (was 54k now 55k); Paying down debt (won’t go there again), good hedges, +20% prod next year, Heather/Broom looking good and obviously Magnus acquisition.
Very Good (but nobody ever seems to mention): Year end EBITDA c $640m, basic eps 6.5p, should be a share price of at least 60p (PE10, Max last five years 9).
Not so Good: Not paying down debt as much as the pessimists would like, hedges could have been for longer, not much improvement in K prod since Interims and not too much extra until DC4.
Only really focussing on sp 60p, some seem to forget why we are here!.
DD
Based on the capital markets day presentation the UK/EU retail and professional revenue for last FY was about 63% of group revenue.
Given they have just updated and stated that 70% of UK/EU rev was professional clients then only 30% of this revenue will be impacted by ESMA, so based on last years revenue (£569m) thats 0.63 x 569 x 0.3 = £107.5m.
They also stated in the capital markets day presentation that mid range their predicted ESMA impact (UK/EU retail revenue) for this FY would be a 34% decline, so that’s a £36.5m (0.34 x 107.5m) reduction.
With year end revenue of £532.5 (569-36.5 which is a 7.5% reduction), a 45% pre tax margin (last year was 49%) gives pbt of £240m, post tax profit £194m, eps circa 53p (a year ahead of consensus forecast), target price with 5 year average PE of 15 gives circa 795p.
Even basing it on a simple 10% reduction in revenue for FY19, that’s £512m rev and an eps of circa 50.5p, with again a PE of 15 gives £7.59.
Can understand market jitters at the moment about Brexit, Corbyn, etc., but market volatility is bread and butter for IG, so slightly baffled at the sp movement here lately........perhaps I’m missing something. CMC is reporting similar lack of volatility and momentum but Plus appears to be bucking the trend with a recent “ahead of” update (if their numbers are pucker cough cough).
Still sitting on my hands here as wanted to see some strength in the sp before committing.
DD
DD
L3, sorry that’s Oiluser,
It’s maths not math, you and Fernan are like two peas in a pod. Filtered Fernan ages ago and now it’s your turn, in you go and mind the monkey, it bites!.
Your 32p exit post for me was the last straw.
DD
L3
It’s not beyond your capabilities to have posted the correct info on debt, yet you deliberately chose to post misleading and incorrect data.
Just for clarity:
Debt at 30th June $1,973.4m, today they state net debt at 31st October was $1,771.8m, so a reduction of nearly $202m.
They raised £107m via the rights and paid $100m for Magnus, so at current fx rates (if you prefer $) then the rights raised $136m. So excluding payment for Magnus rights contributed $36m to reduced debt.
Debt reduced $202m less $36m so like for like a reduction in debt of $166m. You posted it was a $100m like for like reduction.
L3
Your post is completely inaccurate with regards to debt and you admit it, doesn’t matter whether in sterling or dollars you we’re trying to play down how much debt has been paid off.
Will not be considerate to someone who has constantly bashed my investment.........you are definitely oiluser, same style same phrases and negativity, who also holds PMO.
L3
With regards to debt pay off I don’t agree with your numbers. They have reduced debt by £157m, the rights raised £107m, with £84m used to pay Magnus, so only £23m of the £157m was from the rights, so like for like a £134m reduction in debt (you posted $100m about £79m).
You are Oiluser without a doubt, the whole tone of your postings- the door to the cage is now open!.
Overall a reassuring and positive update. Only downer for me is K prod, thank god for Magnus deal is all I can say. Pleased to see a decent reduction in debt as well.
Let’s see what Mr Market thinks.