Member Info for Dip666

Section on Greatland Gold from around 19m 55s in.

https://youtu.be/HpBDQ3M6txQ?t=1195

Also as posted on TG:

They don't claim to have captured them all based on their selection criteria but confident they have most and also as the data set has grown the trends have remained fairly constant.

Both Lassonde Curve and PPSS are not accurate predictors I guess and study states lack of correlation in what makes top 5 gainers the best or metric/s such as resource size that most influence the gains so both models are very loose as I imagine company, market and asset sentiment also major influences on each project.

The report covers various types of mines mate and not just precious metals, sorry that gold/silver excerpt was for the other board I posted on :-)

As posted on TG pages 5 and 19 of the report cover data set, selection criteria and limitations of the study.

https://independentspeculator.com/img/uploads/media/files/PDF/PPSS-2023.pdf

taken from a post made on another board but feel it applies to ufo too with the han**** project hopefully providing a pre production rerate :-)

biggest lesson personally being a newbie into the sector from late 2019 is to avoid holding through a junior's 'orphan phase' (past the discovery hype phase of the lassonde curve for a discovery) unless they have made another discovery or have some revenue perhaps, and also ignoring any nearology and 'advantages' such as existing infrastructure etc. unless we're in some amazing bull run for the sector i.e. avoid becoming the dumb retail money :-)

as for the lassonde curve and moving into the second wave, i've studied lobo tiggre's pre production sweet spot (ppss) study which analyses a few decades of data back into the 1980's for projects moving from dtm to first production (fp) and the findings are very interesting.

essentially 9 out of 10 mines that achieve a dtm come to fruition (and havieron already has much development work ongoing pre dfs so the odds of production are very high despite some vocal gainsayers). but there wasn't an obvious link to a particular metric identified (npv, production profile, resource size etc.) that dictates how much of a rerate.

although the 5 best from the 124 project studied did manage an average from their market cap at dtm to fp of 750% (the average amongst gold and silver mining projects was a 106% gain from dtm to fp).

imo perhaps the magnitude of a retrace will depend again on the random wildcard of any hype around the company, if so, let's hope we can recapture the magic of 2020 and also again be accompanied by tailwinds to assist in getting back to much higher levels.

link below to:

1/ the analysis i made on ggpchat:

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=4786#p4786

and

2/ also a youtube link from a long interview with lobo discussing the study.

https://youtu.be/0g0fkic5954?si=ej2z7w5qjnzsfpm4

I was in the boat of those that thought an independent MRE wouldn't provide a meaningful and sustained retrace at the stage of the project we are in now, I suspect we won't see a meaningful retrace without either a significant inrush to the sector by general investors or delivery of our long delayed DFS/DTM once clarity is also achieved on Newmont's plans for Hav/Telfer.

Biggest lesson personally being a newbie into the sector from late 2019 is to avoid holding through a Junior's 'Orphan Phase' (past the Discovery Hype phase of the Lassonde Curve for a discovery) unless they have made another discovery or have some revenue perhaps, and also ignoring any nearology and 'advantages' such as existing infrastructure etc. unless we're in some amazing bull run for the sector i.e. avoid becoming the dumb retail money :-)

As for the Lassonde Curve and moving into the second wave, I've studied Lobo Tigre's Pre Production Sweet Spot (PPSS) Study which analyses a few decades of data back into the 1980's for projects moving from DTM to first production (FP) and the findings are very interesting.

Essentially 9 out of 10 mines that achieve a DTM come to fruition (and Havieron already has much development work ongoing pre DFS so the odds of production are very high despite some vocal gainsayers). BUT there wasn't an obvious link to a particular metric identified (NPV, production profile, resource size etc.) that dictates how much of a rerate.

Although the 5 best from the 124 project studied did manage an average from their market cap at DTM to FP of 750% (the average amongst gold and silver mining projects was a 106% gain from DTM to FP).

IMO perhaps the magnitude of a retrace will depend again on the random wildcard of any hype around GGP, if so, let's hope we can recapture the magic of 2020 and also again be accompanied by tailwinds to assist in getting back to much higher levels.

Link below to:

1/ the analysis I made on GGPChat:

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=4786#p4786

and

2/ also a YouTube link sent to me by Stuart H (who also grabs all those amazing Havieron pics on twitter) from a long interview with Lobo discussing the study.

https://youtu.be/0g0FkiC5954?si=ej2z7W5QjnZSfpM4

As always - DYOR and have a lovely weekend :-)

XMas special podcast featuring Shaun Day from The Sunday Roast:

https://youtu.be/DXSgwE3k3VM?si=MYEz3d-mxDvxs-tV

No offence Icebank but pretty sure you were certain of the exact opposite in your last SRES post on the 22nd, did you have a big change of heart during xMas dinner, ha just teasing you unless I am misconstruing your last two posts :-))

I'm not surprised at all, Tolsa have no need to rush and continue to assess properly for a paltry to them payment of £100k... and perhaps even gain an opportunity to pick up cheaply if SRES get financially distressed for any reason.

Many a decent project will get picked up for cheap in this current environment by larger, better capitalised players as part of the challenges for PC to navigate through.

troy will probably have lost his performance options as moving on from ufo which is why some doubt will creep in for some as why lose in theory an easy payday.as for the blujay farce, troy himself should have handled the situation better i presume but not a fan of the instability and unprofessionalism in certain aspects of the leadership team here with such good assets to commercialise. again, the price action suggests some 'leakiness' prior to an rns announcement. can't say i was ever keen on rod or troy and they certainly didn't stick around to follow through the plans they set to being close to fruition, so it proved to be correct.

the production rerate for han**** is still very appealing as an investor but i'd like to see the aforementioned matters improve to consider very long term investment here, otherwise the assets will just be snapped up cheap eventually by a major imo. such instability is unhelpful when negotiating for funding/jv's as not very appealing to potential partners. it would be good to see a ceo put in place who wants to build a company and have a proven history that displays this vs just being a short term catalyst to now help appease any doubt around the company.

missed deadlines and delays are unavoidable in this sector when developing assets, especially where you have stakeholder negotiations around first nations and the usual permitting related delays this industry seems to suffer from, but comms need to improve greatly since bill left with pi's and would be great if they manage to get within q1 '2024 so not missing the current deadline for eoy by too much.

hopefully everything still on track for production deadline to be met but the bod need to prioritise bringing some stability into the team, projects/companies suffer with constant turnover of staff at any level outside the natural shift required for a junior explorer transitioning to a producer.

Many of us inc. me assumed that the Telfer infrastructure and fact that a lot of developmental work was being conducted prior to DFS meant we could mostly ignore the Orphan Period and that we'd make another discovery in no time and also that the money leaving the sector in 2021 wouldn't affect us.

So IMO it hasn't been just shorting and market sentiment but that the DFS/DTM are required despite the early construction and existing infrastructure. Also, we have seen the timeline shift from the original one from the NCM PFS too as invariably Havieron wasn't immune to a few issues with the development such as the decline initially and now LCA.

However, what I'm hoping will be of benefit is that once we do get the DFS/DTM that should in theory help kickstart the demand for shares that the fact we have the existing infrastructure and much of the developmental work completed we see a quicker journey up Wave 2 but of course, that is just theory based on no prior experience.

Both resolutions voted through.

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/pathfinder-minerals-PFP/share-news/Pathfinder-Minerals-Plc-Result-of-General-Meeting/92872902

LOl TT and no transcript or software Ace so had to listen and type out quickly, had a important conf. call at 11:30am so very rushed tbh, have tested a few apps but been rubbish to date - so for shorter ones happy to rely on my memory and less than stellar speed typing skills :-)

Wanted to get out quickly so folk focus on the info. relayed in the interview as an independent MRE is unlikely to help be a major SP catalyst as can be seen today as what we need now is a DFS/DTM to really start the next phase of LC, we're far past the hype phase and of course next couple of months we'll see what NEM do with resource and reserves and if Hav is part of 2024 optimisation plans and my mid year their plans for entire portfolio while we hit our own development milestones

Agree with Bamps that perhaps NEM want to release reserves themselves, perhaps in Feb annual updates and good to see that Bamps Link Zone theory is officially confirmed by MRE :-)

Notes from Proactive Interview re HAVIERON MRE UPDATE - 21 Dec 2023

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=861

Https://youtu.be/iaHANfC2xao?si=e4Qf9Ivc5-nAttiy

Contacted SRES to see if anything planned for here, unlikely I presume though.

Here's a reminder too on the 'Pre Production Sweet Spot' study that looked at 124 mining projects from the 80's to present day from the point that a construction decision was made, much of the current work (expense & resources) that has been conducted at Havieron would usually be post DFS/DTM not before.

Taking that into account I'd assume that Havieron very much fits into the 93% plus of mines that come to fruition. Someone is going to be mining this ore body is a fairly safe assumption IMO :-))

Full report breakdown here:

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=812

Report Dataset:

- Report dataset includes 124 cases of first-time mine builders stretching back to the 1980s, cases consist of exploration companies with a published CD or an announcement that construction had started.

- Included those that failed to reach FP or Commercial Production (CP) or failed to reach either.

- Excluded cases with incomplete/unclear data, mines that were restarted after care/maintenance or companies buying or expanding producing assets.

- The overall odds of success are 92–95%; the average gain of these is almost 100%; and it’s possible to bag around 750% on the top performers.

- One thing that came out significantly is that the average result improved somewhat when holding on after first pour to commercial production but changes the average period from 570 to 737 days.

- Many stocks see a retrace if the mine doesn’t profit the forecasted profitability but most saw additional gains as the companies ramped up into CP.

Here are the basic findings for all 124 cases:

- The whole exercise is aimed at measuring the typical gains for speculation on the transition from exploration to production.

- 91.9% succeed at building their mines (making it from CD to FP).

- 95.2% succeed if we count mines built after a takeover.

- 568.8 days is the average time from CD to FP.

- 97.0% is the average gain from CD to FP.

- 111.0% is the average gain from CD to CP.

- 745.5% is the average gain from CD to FP for the top five cases.

- 20.2% is the average gain during bear markets.

- 132.4% is the average gain during bull markets.

Gold and Silver miners specifically:

- 93.4% succeed at building their mines (making it from CD to FP).

- 96.2% succeed if including mines built after a takeover.

- 560.7 days is the average time from CD to FP.

- 91.0% is the average gain from CD to FP.

- 106.0% is the average gain from CD to CP.

- 594.0% is the average gain from CD to FP for the top five cases.

- 27.6% is the average gain during bear markets.

- 118.5% is the average gain during bull markets.

- 71.7% of all gold and silver PPSS cases delivered positive gains.

Best to compare Shares on Loan against daily volumes and trades than calculating percentage against overall shares in issue to get an accurate idea of how a few million shares can be used to affect price.

Notes from Proactive Interview re SCALLYWAG drill results- 13 Dec 2023

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=856

hi cb, different timelines for the different projects i meant vs any changes to han**** milestones :-)

hi viking, been here from around mid 2020, great prospects in the oz tenements with pgm's and silver and near term production by year end 2024 hopefully on han**** iron ore project.

a dfs due soon to help close funding hopefully with plenty of growth potential for more high grade dso iron ore in the future.

latest corp presentation has the different project timelines if you haven't seen yet :-)

https://www.alienmetals.uk/wp-content/uploads/coprorate-slide-deck-dec-23.pdf

As Shaun keeps explaining, exploring tenements like Scallywag with potential under cover minerisation and mostly unexplored will take multi year campaigns, we need to reset expecations around that fact for perhaps hitting any new discoveries vs expecting HAD05 type results.

While sat updates are fantastic for infill and growth drilling as we saw with Havieron, it has proven folly for example to get excited at GGP returning to holes on pre-discovery exploration projects such as with satellite targets on the border with Artemis etc.. If there are other ore bodies in our less explored tenements then it may still be a few years before we make another discovery.

For that reason, I tend to focus more of my attention on Havieron nowadays and have a more reactive approach to the other projects in that I prefer to await results before making any assumptions and I also assume very long turnarounds and personally have stopped logging when they may have been sent in and expected back.

This guy again, well a few of us have broken down his misinformed GGP articles on GGPChat and he's got a terrible record on his other coverage, glad he can spell research, about all he can do though :-)

Known as Lurker5 on ADVFN too, master... more a novice and not just about mining investment, some of the most poorly written and misinformed articles around investing online ever created, hope he was better in his job roles for his own sake or maybe he was 'retired' :-)