Member Info for Dip666

ITS - I reckon you've gone your whole investing career without getting in early on a single investment hence the scorn and derision on boards where former big risers have seen big falls.

Feels very personal with you, not as if you deal in breaking down facts or numbers of any kind in ant technical studies or reports etc.

Although outdated the PFS and MRE's to date do allow an investment case to have been informed to some preliminary extent and indeed we've had a circa 3mtpa production profiles with 350-450K ounces signposted too (30% of which would be GGP's).

We've also had various broker notes looking at forecasts too based on the above that you can use to build a forecast of future revenues if you understand them and even run your own projections. Of course that doesn't equate to a DFS that will further qualify the project economics but there is a heck of a lot of information out there already for thsoe who understand how to use it....

Also, ongoing drilling reports quarterly have given an indication of the increasing resource growth and areas such as teh Eastern Breccia.

Sadly I agree with Panama, sentiment seems to overrule fundamentals on AIM - clearly evidenced last few years and not aided by the ambiguity on Hav and Telfer with Newmont deal. Hopefully we get guidance on their plans sooner rather than later in 2024.

I have to say bit of a learning curve here has been that the stated timelines in NCM's PFS have shifted a fair bit so while I expected some changes to the ETA for production by the time we got to a DFS, it's obvious you need to add in a lot of contingency as I've seen the same on a couple of other stocks too.

Having a better understanding of all of the processes and clearances required alongside the technical/engineering challenges, I can see why now - but knowledge gained the hard way for sure :-)

All Liam mate as he used AI for the transcript so I am absolved of any spelling or grammatical mistakes :-)

Transcript for the interview via AI

https://aimonair.com/?p=3261

Https://youtu.be/k4nlbZ7P66k?si=nVNm1AJmT9P07ytH

Https://youtu.be/k4nlbZ7P66k?si=nVNm1AJmT9P07ytH

Shaun Day, MD, Greatland Gold Joins Liam to discuss the RNS (dated 24th October 23) https://polaris.brighterir.com/public...

Greatland Gold plc (AIM:GGP) (Greatland or the Company) provides the following update on activities and progress at Havieron, the world class gold-copper project located in the Paterson Province of Western Australia.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJ3B1RFaQlc

It is a disappointing RNS as we've gone from potentially between April to June to between July to September delivery of the DFS and the Sunset Clause seems to have been moved or removed I assume, so I can understand folk being upset as the DFS might now be delivered almost 2 years beyond initial ETA, I know I certainly am.

However it's 1-3 months in a multi decade mine and if they are finding the potential for more water content than expected in the Aquifer then it makes sense to analyse and if needed adapt the development. As detailed in RNS the depressurisation will continue as it greatly assists dealing aquifers from the two previous instances.

Also that this work might result in a more efficient workflow and reduced costs and that in the meantime underground activities such as the ventilation system will continue in too and these activities are all significant development milestones and derisking events. I do think from my own experience of project management that doing the utmost to understand a potentially unexpected issue in an upcoming project stage is essential to avoid larger issues in future.

However... of course it also means a potential delay of 1 to 3 months more in the DFS detailing the financial and technical details that will drive the formal DTM and from where we would expect a SP rerate to really begin as should drive Insto demand for the stock. I so feel Shaun should do a few interviews and clarify what he can this week after this RNS to assuage fears, explain the issue in more depth and answer other questions perhaps that come up.

I agree with others that the wording does not imply that production will be brought forward at all, Shaun mentions 'maintaining an accelerated pathway to production' as in the overall project timeline being so rapid from discovery to production IMO.

Amendment - - Managing funding of the Hav project from a PFS NOT DFS!

Come on Tig... "a few peripheral activities'... reflect on how much input and work before Shaun's time GGP had in anything outside some input into the drilling plans and feedback on analysis of results etc. once NCM partnered with us, we were increasingly more passengers than partners - which is where Majors often want to buy off a Junior and keep the rewards all for themselves.

- Fighting off a suddenly hostile JV partner in a very disadvantageous option exercise and still coming out in a positive manner by creating an independent MRE and valuation despite the challenges of an economic PFS, cut-off date for data and conservative asset price decks etc.

- Managing funding of the Hav project from a DFS and lately deferring interest payments to a DFS release and securing continued commitment from the Banks and a standby loan from Wyloo

- Ensuring we have been able to meet our financial commitments to date on developing Hav despite the tougher fudning climate for Juniors

- Building a world class mining team with a BOD worthy of any Global leading corporation or Major Mining company ready for transition to a company with revenue who can grow organically and inorganically

- Building strategic focus in Australia and divesting further afield tenements

- Continually optimising the Portfolio and applying an economic but effective exploration methodology to ensure future success as much as possible

- Securing a farm-in with Rio on more very prospective ground within the Paterson

You seem to be confusing some of us being in agreement with the current strategy around dealing with the complexities around the NEM/NCM acquisition delaying these milestones and opening up various threats and opportunities as blind faith aping the same insults thrown by certain rude posters.

Not at all, and IMO quite telling that those with more nuanced understanding of business strategy and/or technical matters seem to make up a fair number of those that you are currently in constant disagreement with. You're entitle4d to your opinion but these assertions that ample count reasoning hasn't been articulated by you and a couple of others is completely inaccurate.

I'm not familiar with UPL but you'll always get outliers and exceptions to any averages in a current market.

Certainly in any M&A cycle, you get the biggest premiums paid when late movers end up competing for a diminished number of opportunities. Has to be said that NEM themselves have been busy with GoldCorp and NCM now so very much an early mover. but you never know what might happen in future. The DFS will help build an updated baseline for a valuation of course.

In this episode, Dr. Rob Stevens teaches investors what to consider when assessing an underground mining project. Dr. Stevens (Ph.D., P.Geo.) is a professional geologist and educator. He has trained numerous brokers, analysts, and investors in the basics of mineral exploration and mining via his training course. After teaching this course for many years, he eventually published its content in his book, Mineral Exploration and Mining Essentials.

0:00 Introduction

2:57 Mining methods

5:56 Important Considerations

12:08 Mine layout and access

15:48 Selective methods

21:00 Bulk methods

23:23 Underground mining videos

24:15 Rough operating costs

25:34 Underground mining challenges

33:15 Dr. Stevens’ resources

https://youtu.be/nCzGwOwmZac?si=eL7mzvvQ16R95cAu

Hey Stebol, I was just having fun playing around with Don's method in a spreadsheet to test it, bot too simplistic for me but when you're evaluating 950 companies I guess it does the job :-)

Looking at Don's valuation method with far more conservative metrics still make Havieron very appealing to try and get to a 20p-ish valuation at First Ore.

Say you stick at 400,000 ounces (in between the 350-450k range signposted in DFS by Shaun) this is 120,000 attributed to GGP.

Go for a Gold price of $2k by First Ore and assume a $1k AISC (adding circa 34% plus to NCM's PFS AISC of $743 so hopefully very conservative) still leaves you with a $1000 margin.

That's $120m (£98.4m) FCF and with a P/E of 10 gives just over £0.19 target SP valuation.

p.s 30% of 350k production gets you £0.17 rounded up and 450k gets you £0.22 rounded up

p.p.s Just for a more conservative illustration using Don's method to get to around 20p in target value.

Thanks Panama, hoping for a bigger xMas bonus from Shaun after helping talk Don into investing in GGP over twitter, but don't tell Freddo :-)

Hi Z - I reckon a SP offer at 20p plus would be successful personally and I'd certainly consider it carefully even though I can wait as a low average and no need for funds.

But you can't judge offers from chart groups as not representative of entire SH base inc. of course large insto holders - but would NEM pay that realistically, a 200% plus premium on current SP and would their shareholders agree?

What's the largest premium above SP that's been paid of late for a gold/copper explorer, do we have 200% plus premiums on closing SP examples?

Quite the reversal in your intel's predictions going from wanting to divest to now buying out GGP's stake Sisu, any reasoning provided as nothing has changed around the project?

Well if true then they'll be as committed as NCM were to bringing Hav online as quickly as possible to avoid a gap in ore at Telfer.

Thx MH01 - corrected :-)

Also created some highlights from Don's interview of key points:

Highlights from AIM ON AIR Interview with Don Durrett - 18 OCT 2023

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=818

I think the 200k ounces from Don for GGP is a bit high MH01 from the expected production profile from decline overall of 350-450k ounces, so perhaps 30% of 400k is a good value for GGP calcs :-)

350k = 105,000 for GGP

400k = 120,000 for GGP

450k = 135,000 for GGP

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=662

Bell Potter Conference - 10 Feb 2023

But if we move across to the first slide after the disclaimer, we have the just an orientation around our strategy and there's really three pillars to our strategy which is deliver on an expanded Havieron, we continue to do that and the expectation is that will be moved from two million tons per annum in the pre-feasibility study to three million tons per annum which will take it to around a 400 or 450 000 ounce per annum asset.

Q - Thank you very much, you know you spoke a lot about what's happening at Havieron, you touched on you know potential first production in sort of March 24 I think, you know what does the production ramp up there look like and you know what are your thoughts on achieving commercial production and what.. could you remind us again of sort of the ultimate production rate that's contemplated there?

A - yeah Brad, look so we we're looking at a 400 to 450,000 kind of gold equivalent ounce profile for up for 100% of Havieron, the... when we think about this it'd be first ore in kind of the March or around March 2024 and then we have the ramp up following that