Member Info for Dip666

Bell Potter Conference Slides:

https://greatlandgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Greatland-Bell-Potter-Unearthed-14-Feb-24.pdf

Good post HH.

I note Alwyn currently has 4 Non exec roles since around July 2023 inc. Alien and previously 9 months as an interim CEO after leaving a 6 year role as a MD so agree with some he probably wasn't expecting to be in this position of overseeing everything in such proximity.

The faster we get a longer term focused and stable team in place that can build and commit to delivering a long term strategy the better. Execution of strategy requires stability and commitment, not a farce of musical chairs in the board room playing out at UFO the last few years :-)

The above has played it's part too in holding back some progress vs just the logistical challenges etc. I think we can muddle through to production as expect they'll focus now on building a stable team but we need more to maximise the potential here from management. Good assets won't deliver much of benefit without a good team in place.

I think proving our more of the resource to JORC standard is a good idea to entice investment and protection in case of any takeover but we'll probably need to raise funds hence the lack of positive impact from interviews and probably why we finally had some comms.

I'd be surprised if a DFS isn't required by a lender and suspect that Alwyn would rather save some money in building a full DFS now that AA deal seems off the table or at least in short term until a funding deal is likely as he might be able to incorporate longer mine life, increase production etc. from incorporating the further resource upgrades that the company seems to be considering.

Hi CJ - I wasn't having a pop at anyone and in reality saying any emotional response or validity given to broker SP targets is a waste of time for anyone to argue about :-)

They don't mean anything and neither does Alwyn's statement about a potential 10- bagger here (for new investors) - both should be considered as 'marketing' and targeted at securing new investors whether from our chairman or a broker note rather than any indication of accurate future value.

Hi Z, all good and hope you're well too mate :-)

I also think there might be some kind of commitment written into the JV to protect both parties in case the other defaults either financially or otherwise... perhaps more event than time based though i,e. the decline hits the ore body, a DFS is published and the DTM process is triggered for a decision by each party to proceed to full development or to sell their stake if other party wishes to approve DTM.

@Rashpurchase - Tom Palmer has stated the comms plan is to look at sharing short-term 2024 plans for optimisation in Feb, followed by a comprehensive longer term update after June.

Newmont 2023 Q3 Earnings Transcript - Highlights transcript excerpts:

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=4828#p4828

Karyn Ovelmen - opening statements

On the close of the Newcrest acquisition, Newmont will integrate 5 new operations into our robust global operating model. February of next year, we expect to provide our 2024 outlook for the combined company with our fourth quarter and full year results.

For a longer-term view of our portfolio, we will apply a disciplined and thoughtful approach to setting market guidance for the combined company. We expect to provide our long-term outlook after we've had some time on the ground with the Newcrest assets and following our annual strategy session with our Board of Directors, which typically takes place in June.

We look forward to and providing more information on the exciting opportunities ahead for both current and future stakeholders. And with that, I'll pass it on to Tom for an update on the Newcrest transaction.

Q: Lawson Winder

You've all discussed the likelihood for the combined company to have lower production than a combined 8 million ounces annually. What is the urgency with which you intend to sell any noncore assets to reduce from that level and improve the overall combined portfolio?

A: Thomas Palmer

Thanks, Lawson, for the question. In terms of it, as Karyn talked about in terms of us taking time to work through the longer-term outlook with more like a midyear then we will run a Capital Markets Day to share that, what we'll look to do almost immediately after close is we have a reserve and resource, review team. We call it our 3R review. We have that team going in each of the 5 operations at Newcrest and establish the reserve and resources to the Newmont definition. And then with that reserve and resource review done, we're going to establish Newmont-based resource models. and then start to develop our mine plans based upon previous best demonstrated performance and then have those start to convert into business plans, and then we'll iterate and work those.

I agree with MH01 - we may need to wait for Newmont's full disclosure in June on overall optimisation plans to obtain full clarity on Havieron rather than expect all eth answers next week.

Although questions about a potential gap in ore at Telfer might be brought up surely in Q&A given the lack of specificity on Havieron timelines at present - including definitive guidance on what Newmont plan to do with a development project that is required for Telfer by early Q3 according to Newcrest's former guidance.

Will definitely be interesting if not giving us all the answers :-)

Broker notes at times can have good information that assist in establishing intrinsic value based on valuation methodology and what information being used such as PFS or DFS and teh threshold for forecasting costs/revenue in each BUT targets are more of a marketing tool used by Brokers to entice business for themselves so no one shoudl be hanging on those or Alwyn's opinion of market cap - the market will price UFO irrespective of either - bit silly arguing about it.

Older article on Stockpedia about broker recommendations inc. some stats on 'performance' :-)

https://www.stockopedia.com/blog/can-you-beat-the-market-using-broker-buy-recommendations-146421/

Might be tough for a 10 bagger without some tailwinds I suspect and sadly share prices son't automatically reflect a brokers FMV or CEO's assumptions - alas if only the world worked like that :-)

Circa 3p was during a huge stock market and sector bubble - we've also been diluted since so always good to consider MC over SP than think about revisiting SP ATH's. Avoid Orphan Periods albeit many thought here we'd see progress/success on other projects maintain SP to some extent and not see such a sharp decline in sector sentiment.

The recent PR campaign is probably partly motivated to help negate the poor PR caused with last couple months debacle with Troy/ Blujay role / his exit in tandem with issuing a development study in place of expectations by many according to original plan for a DFS to perhaps assist potential AA deal/funding announcement and lastly - slippage of production back by about a quarter to Q1 2025.

The other reason for this sudden PR IMO is potentially to perhaps drum up interest in a raise as likely we'll need some funds before revenue in 2025 to assist upsizing the resource as stated in recent interviews. Not impatient as always stated I saw original production as seemingly too fast abck in 2021/22 considering what i was learning about permitting and production delays etc. in this sector through other investments against the very optimistic expectations some had.

Hopefully in the next 12 months we'll see production and tailwinds having supported a big rerate including upside from resource upgrades.

Rio do seem to be going ahead with the approvals process for Winu[1] but taking a controlled rather than accelerated plan to production. I was sure I'd read something from AFR (https://archive.ph/cn1ZD) before xMas while looking for GGP related news. It looks like their submission was approved for assessment and public review to go ahead in late December[2].

In the article AFR is also suggesting Gold industry sources now think that if Newmont opt to divest Telfer it won't be until after June and had Tom Palmer quoting Havieron as a valuable asset while alluding to other opportunities in the region vs signposting divestment.

[1] https://www.epa.wa.gov.au/proposals/winu-project

[2] https://www.epa.wa.gov.au/sites/default/files/Extract_of_determination/Winu%20Project%20-%20Chair%20Determination.pdf

Details of the hedging at Telfer was in teh NCM market release announcing the cutback:

https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2022-11/221108_Telfer%20mine%20life%20further%20extended%20with%20West%20Dome%20Stage%208%20approval%20-%20Market%20Release.pdf

Hedging is used to try and protect you from the risk of volatile price movements going against you to try and maintain profitability at it's most base explanation, just google Gold hedging strategies for more info :-)

Telfer AISC from last NCM FY presentation in Aug 2023:

https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2023-08/230811_Newcrest%202023%20Full%20Year%20Results%20-%20Presentation.pdf

Slide 6 & 20, 21 of 25

Gold production 349koz, copper production 17kt,

AISC $1,633/oz4

• Mine life extended into early FY25*** with

WDS8 cutback9

*** Australian FY is July 1st to Jun 30 so probably means mine life was forecasted to approx. Q3 2024 so would assume Telfer workforce will be wondering if any gap in ore with Havieron decline paused for aquifer work at mo, so perhaps some pressure for some comms from Newmont in late Feb update.

YouTube channel where Shaun's Bell Potter conference presentation on Thursday 15th Feb at 5:25 am will be hosted following the conference:

https://www.youtube.com/@BellPotterSecurities/

It's the same YouTube interview MH01 linked too:

I found it really interesting to get some insight into the different type of geologist roles and learn more about the MRE process from his viewpoint, will be interesting to see follow-ups with other GGP personnel to learn more about their individual roles :-)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dY09YI8m4QQ

Perhaps just moved onto another opportunity as other staff and directors might do over the years if opportunities turn up and he does tend to move around looking at LInkedIn, often having spent around 3 years in roles.

Any accelerated success at GGP in future will also make staff very desirable to other organisations albeit I'd have assumed they'd perhaps have a replacement in the pipeline if Monica just covering in interim - no doubt we'll see an RNS soon enough that might help shed some light, of more importance to me is appointing a permanent replacement.

@DH...

Got a Problem?

Odds Against You?

Call the Geologist!

Liam's interview too with Callum in Feb '23 at 17 24 secs in discussing EG:

https://youtu.be/tyjDRNi0D58?t=1044

Notes:

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=659

@TT - notes for Coffee with Samso too :-)

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=236

For sure more than a bit of water seeping through rocks but the posts were just reacting to a blatant troll Freddie, have a look through that guy's posts unless his account been shut down now.

The important thing is they seem to be getting on top of it, the lowest of the three aquifers ended up having more water/pressure than assumed once they got closer down to it and started dealing with it. They've dealt with the upper and middle aquifer and no doubt will do the same here. The aquifer isn't something that will derail the project which is what Tatty was intimating.

Morning Freddo, are we shifting for a career change from starring as the protagonist in The Nightmare on Elm Street franchise to Stephen King's IT :-))

Shaun's updates in recent interviews seemed clear, progress has been good and 'ahead of schedule' but GGP need to make updates 'hand in hand' with Newmont despite having their own assumptions on when it will be safe to resume work on the decline - so it seems as if they are getting ahead of the issue.

Currently we've been told the team are still 'doing the maths' i.e. assessing when they have a more definitive hold on when they estimate they will have lowered the pressure enough to resume work on the decline by assessing pump rates etc. Not sure where this leads to any confusion really.

Shaun did also say that the decline team are working on the 'maths' i.e. I assumed trying to tabulate at what remaining volume of water the pressure might be safe again to commence work on the decline? Couldn't be clearer I feel from the interview so I guess we have to wait to see if they have completed the equations and calcs as such in time for Feb to detail when work might recommence on the decline?

IMO the interview with Liam leaves little doubt that there is no foul play at hand from Newmont as such as GGP support the decision... that is unless folk now think GGP are happy fooling their own shareholders and working in tandem with NEM with ulterior motives that are negative towards us, in which case we're definitely in trouble... :-)

The question I feel is if this adds a slight delay onto the production timeline but alternatively I suppose a few months don't matter in a multi decade mine operation and of more focus to me is the DFS/DTM being delivered this year and IMO currently more likely post June after the comprehensive update by NEM is shared. Personally, not expecting a detailed update in Feb as Tom Palmer himself has said that NEM will take a considered approach to optimising the portfolio and with nigh on 20 assets almost I think and perhaps various other pressing issues - a lot to think about but fingers crossed we get something :-)

I've looked before at post GoldCorp activity where NEM conducted optimisation transactions in months 6-9 of a 18 month timeline - so in theory the comms schedule they are planning with larger post acquisition goals in a 24 month window (acquisition completed in Nov '23, 2024 plans shared in Feb '24 and comprehensive update around mid-year) seems in line to their stated desire to follow the same template/process as what was successfully accomplished post GoldCorp deal.

So, perhaps a valid theory that from mid-year (7-8 months into a 24 month plan) they start to initiate optimisation plans and as yet we await confirmation from NEM directly into their plans for Hav/Telfer albeit Shaun was giving strong indications of his belief the JVA committee members from NEM will sign-off the DFS/DTM. Of course, doesn't mean they couldn't in future decide to divest or try buying our stake after this key milestone. Personally - I will retain an open mind at this stage to all outcomes :-)

LOL Snotty - is there ever anything funnier than a dimwit trying to act clever?

Why don't you 'calibrate' the amount of crack in your bloodstream by the level of Special Brew and then directly compare the number of tissues used in the last hour to wipe that nose by the number of articulate, coherent and comprehensible posts in your posting history.

Starts with z...

I think your mummy and daddy (Tymers and IOT) need to get you in bed as well past your usual bedtime but thank you for the entertainment :-)