RE: Buyers line up for Telfer28 Feb 2024 15:07
Freddie, some are deffo going to TH and I'm 50/50 on whether I go but if so will also be asking as much as i can to get info. on what he is allowed to talk about certain matters. All we can do really at mo mate, no point in arguing with each other.
Ultimately we now know for certain both assets are being sold, talks are in progress as stated by Tom P in various interviews, there may or may not be 2 other bidders as well if that article is legit speculation - a fair approximation of current situation I feel.
What we all need to see now is an RNS to work out how much needs to be raised, how Shaun intends to do it (Equity raise, debt funding, other methods such as royalties, ASX listing and IPO, Director buys etc. etc. ) if as most of us think we are to be the most likely new owners of both assets. Then we each sit back and work out how that all looks for us from our perspective I guess.
Personally I look at the Grant Samuels valuation (on outdated data TBF ) suggesting a $500-600m range taking into consideration the 'Telfer burden' and 70% of Havieron and wonder if NEM want to offload quickly they don't try pushing up using new data such as latest MRE, whilst any bidder might question the assumptions in the valuation and cite issues such as the tailings dam etc. There are other points such as POG, scenarios and synergies assumed that may differ from GGP perspective too.
Malva had similar thoughts to myself in terms of a valuation range so these alongside the need to fund Havieron into development IMO are all part of the equation here. Very hard to predict how this might be funded though given all the options but no banks or insto will find a cr*p deal fullstop. GGP team knows what kind of funds are needed to close a sale and will be working on finalising things IMO if we aren't being counter bid.
Worst case we get outbid, you know for sure that the new owners plan to mine Hav so they either continue JV or buy us out with Wyloo pushing up the price. If no other bidders, we get a better price.
Then if GGP can't afford both assets then why not do a JV approach with Wyloo as Shaun articulated in a TH webinar when I asked him about alternative arrangements... Shaun's kept telling us he wanted this so let's see what he can cook up and how he looks after us too hopefully, this was always a feasible outcome since the Newmont bid, now we ride the risk and see what fate holds for us :-)
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