Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Freddo - seems like a handful of folk agree with you... BUT If many of us have invested a large amount of our relative net worth into stocks or our own business or any endeavour then surely we should do some hard work - i.e the ACTIVE in active investing? Try and maximise success?
You want to get fit and maintain your health - you eat well and exercise.
You want to get smarter - you keep learning and make it a lifelong passion.
You increase your odds of success by putting in effort in anything, not just reading RNS's, I stick to a smaller number of stocks so I can spend what is very little spare time to understand and track each investment. Of course, mistakes get made often - only a liar would say they get every investment right but I think I have performed well above average over the years due to putting in the effort to learn as much as I can and stay on top of investments.
Trading or investing, you just have to ensure you win more often than you lose. If you do the hard work, build skills and knowledge then over time you'll perform better than most of your peers most of the time in any endeavour. Even if not the most naturally talented at something because you can close that gap with plain old hard work and focus, talent only gets you so far as the old saying goes.
By building knowledge and keeping a close eye on your stocks, the aim is to hopefully pick up on issues in time to jump ship or get in earlier than others to great opportunities. A lot of us were newbies to this sector or even investing for some here in 2020 when the hype really hit the markets and GGP. You and a few seem to be disagreeing with this, but the reason many come to these boards is to read and share research, research gained through hard work of some to help try and beat 'the system' and some of that is reading and interpreting RNS's last time I checked?
Some have increased their knowledge and some haven't since 2020 - I am 100% confident those who have will make better choices in future here or elsewhere.
Skills pay the bills :-))
Look at the current sector sentiment, not great for mining stocks and surely better to action a cross or dual listing with DFS/DTM in hand and perhaps with knowledge of whether you're still a joint owner or to combine with funding sole ownership of Telfer and Hav.
A lot of the preliminary and regulatory work will have been done by now (details in the GGPChat thread I posted earlier). I watched a company dual listing with an IPO in the mix last year and it easily met the stated guidelines from a market release of intention to dual list (6-8 weeks usual process I think from memory within 5 weeks) - so it should be fairly efficient when it does happen in H2.
Some info here on the distinction between a cross or dual listing :-)
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=2385#p2385
I don't recall anything in last RNS either , so less weight than generalised statements in an interview and assumptions made from those. I did state perhaps not in short term and didn't mean to implly completely off table albeit could have been written better. We previously had a specific and definitive structure and timeline delivered in regards to a potential Anglo deal, DFS and funding structure vs the more generalised interview statements of late - I remember pulling transcript notes out for this.
Great to see we have some indicative term sheets albeit these are non-binding from my understanding. I prefer to analyse everything in detail without preconceived bias rather than be cherry picking good or bad parts of an interview or RNS - i like to consider information and data with an open mind to make assumptions rather than feed desired outcomes.
Bell Potter Conference Slides:
https://greatlandgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Greatland-Bell-Potter-Unearthed-14-Feb-24.pdf
Good post HH.
I note Alwyn currently has 4 Non exec roles since around July 2023 inc. Alien and previously 9 months as an interim CEO after leaving a 6 year role as a MD so agree with some he probably wasn't expecting to be in this position of overseeing everything in such proximity.
The faster we get a longer term focused and stable team in place that can build and commit to delivering a long term strategy the better. Execution of strategy requires stability and commitment, not a farce of musical chairs in the board room playing out at UFO the last few years :-)
The above has played it's part too in holding back some progress vs just the logistical challenges etc. I think we can muddle through to production as expect they'll focus now on building a stable team but we need more to maximise the potential here from management. Good assets won't deliver much of benefit without a good team in place.
I think proving our more of the resource to JORC standard is a good idea to entice investment and protection in case of any takeover but we'll probably need to raise funds hence the lack of positive impact from interviews and probably why we finally had some comms.
I'd be surprised if a DFS isn't required by a lender and suspect that Alwyn would rather save some money in building a full DFS now that AA deal seems off the table or at least in short term until a funding deal is likely as he might be able to incorporate longer mine life, increase production etc. from incorporating the further resource upgrades that the company seems to be considering.
Hi CJ - I wasn't having a pop at anyone and in reality saying any emotional response or validity given to broker SP targets is a waste of time for anyone to argue about :-)
They don't mean anything and neither does Alwyn's statement about a potential 10- bagger here (for new investors) - both should be considered as 'marketing' and targeted at securing new investors whether from our chairman or a broker note rather than any indication of accurate future value.
Hi Z, all good and hope you're well too mate :-)
I also think there might be some kind of commitment written into the JV to protect both parties in case the other defaults either financially or otherwise... perhaps more event than time based though i,e. the decline hits the ore body, a DFS is published and the DTM process is triggered for a decision by each party to proceed to full development or to sell their stake if other party wishes to approve DTM.
@Rashpurchase - Tom Palmer has stated the comms plan is to look at sharing short-term 2024 plans for optimisation in Feb, followed by a comprehensive longer term update after June.
Newmont 2023 Q3 Earnings Transcript - Highlights transcript excerpts:
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=4828#p4828
Karyn Ovelmen - opening statements
On the close of the Newcrest acquisition, Newmont will integrate 5 new operations into our robust global operating model. February of next year, we expect to provide our 2024 outlook for the combined company with our fourth quarter and full year results.
For a longer-term view of our portfolio, we will apply a disciplined and thoughtful approach to setting market guidance for the combined company. We expect to provide our long-term outlook after we've had some time on the ground with the Newcrest assets and following our annual strategy session with our Board of Directors, which typically takes place in June.
We look forward to and providing more information on the exciting opportunities ahead for both current and future stakeholders. And with that, I'll pass it on to Tom for an update on the Newcrest transaction.
Q: Lawson Winder
You've all discussed the likelihood for the combined company to have lower production than a combined 8 million ounces annually. What is the urgency with which you intend to sell any noncore assets to reduce from that level and improve the overall combined portfolio?
A: Thomas Palmer
Thanks, Lawson, for the question. In terms of it, as Karyn talked about in terms of us taking time to work through the longer-term outlook with more like a midyear then we will run a Capital Markets Day to share that, what we'll look to do almost immediately after close is we have a reserve and resource, review team. We call it our 3R review. We have that team going in each of the 5 operations at Newcrest and establish the reserve and resources to the Newmont definition. And then with that reserve and resource review done, we're going to establish Newmont-based resource models. and then start to develop our mine plans based upon previous best demonstrated performance and then have those start to convert into business plans, and then we'll iterate and work those.
I agree with MH01 - we may need to wait for Newmont's full disclosure in June on overall optimisation plans to obtain full clarity on Havieron rather than expect all eth answers next week.
Although questions about a potential gap in ore at Telfer might be brought up surely in Q&A given the lack of specificity on Havieron timelines at present - including definitive guidance on what Newmont plan to do with a development project that is required for Telfer by early Q3 according to Newcrest's former guidance.
Will definitely be interesting if not giving us all the answers :-)
Broker notes at times can have good information that assist in establishing intrinsic value based on valuation methodology and what information being used such as PFS or DFS and teh threshold for forecasting costs/revenue in each BUT targets are more of a marketing tool used by Brokers to entice business for themselves so no one shoudl be hanging on those or Alwyn's opinion of market cap - the market will price UFO irrespective of either - bit silly arguing about it.
Older article on Stockpedia about broker recommendations inc. some stats on 'performance' :-)
https://www.stockopedia.com/blog/can-you-beat-the-market-using-broker-buy-recommendations-146421/
Might be tough for a 10 bagger without some tailwinds I suspect and sadly share prices son't automatically reflect a brokers FMV or CEO's assumptions - alas if only the world worked like that :-)
Circa 3p was during a huge stock market and sector bubble - we've also been diluted since so always good to consider MC over SP than think about revisiting SP ATH's. Avoid Orphan Periods albeit many thought here we'd see progress/success on other projects maintain SP to some extent and not see such a sharp decline in sector sentiment.
The recent PR campaign is probably partly motivated to help negate the poor PR caused with last couple months debacle with Troy/ Blujay role / his exit in tandem with issuing a development study in place of expectations by many according to original plan for a DFS to perhaps assist potential AA deal/funding announcement and lastly - slippage of production back by about a quarter to Q1 2025.
The other reason for this sudden PR IMO is potentially to perhaps drum up interest in a raise as likely we'll need some funds before revenue in 2025 to assist upsizing the resource as stated in recent interviews. Not impatient as always stated I saw original production as seemingly too fast abck in 2021/22 considering what i was learning about permitting and production delays etc. in this sector through other investments against the very optimistic expectations some had.
Hopefully in the next 12 months we'll see production and tailwinds having supported a big rerate including upside from resource upgrades.
Rio do seem to be going ahead with the approvals process for Winu[1] but taking a controlled rather than accelerated plan to production. I was sure I'd read something from AFR (https://archive.ph/cn1ZD) before xMas while looking for GGP related news. It looks like their submission was approved for assessment and public review to go ahead in late December[2].
In the article AFR is also suggesting Gold industry sources now think that if Newmont opt to divest Telfer it won't be until after June and had Tom Palmer quoting Havieron as a valuable asset while alluding to other opportunities in the region vs signposting divestment.
[1] https://www.epa.wa.gov.au/proposals/winu-project
[2] https://www.epa.wa.gov.au/sites/default/files/Extract_of_determination/Winu%20Project%20-%20Chair%20Determination.pdf
Details of the hedging at Telfer was in teh NCM market release announcing the cutback:
https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2022-11/221108_Telfer%20mine%20life%20further%20extended%20with%20West%20Dome%20Stage%208%20approval%20-%20Market%20Release.pdf
Hedging is used to try and protect you from the risk of volatile price movements going against you to try and maintain profitability at it's most base explanation, just google Gold hedging strategies for more info :-)
Telfer AISC from last NCM FY presentation in Aug 2023:
https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2023-08/230811_Newcrest%202023%20Full%20Year%20Results%20-%20Presentation.pdf
Slide 6 & 20, 21 of 25
Gold production 349koz, copper production 17kt,
AISC $1,633/oz4
• Mine life extended into early FY25*** with
WDS8 cutback9
*** Australian FY is July 1st to Jun 30 so probably means mine life was forecasted to approx. Q3 2024 so would assume Telfer workforce will be wondering if any gap in ore with Havieron decline paused for aquifer work at mo, so perhaps some pressure for some comms from Newmont in late Feb update.
YouTube channel where Shaun's Bell Potter conference presentation on Thursday 15th Feb at 5:25 am will be hosted following the conference:
https://www.youtube.com/@BellPotterSecurities/
It's the same YouTube interview MH01 linked too:
I found it really interesting to get some insight into the different type of geologist roles and learn more about the MRE process from his viewpoint, will be interesting to see follow-ups with other GGP personnel to learn more about their individual roles :-)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dY09YI8m4QQ
Perhaps just moved onto another opportunity as other staff and directors might do over the years if opportunities turn up and he does tend to move around looking at LInkedIn, often having spent around 3 years in roles.
Any accelerated success at GGP in future will also make staff very desirable to other organisations albeit I'd have assumed they'd perhaps have a replacement in the pipeline if Monica just covering in interim - no doubt we'll see an RNS soon enough that might help shed some light, of more importance to me is appointing a permanent replacement.
Liam's interview too with Callum in Feb '23 at 17 24 secs in discussing EG:
https://youtu.be/tyjDRNi0D58?t=1044
Notes:
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=659