RE: Building SP16 May 2024 10:41
@ITS - must have pained you to see the last thread removed as you welcome disruption, so you of course decided to post something to stir the pot hopefully - in your case you are very obviously disruptive and looking to instigate issues. However, I'll respond constructively.
- Simply put even for those who were aware of the Orphan Period of the Lassonde Curve, those that held believed the existing infrastructure at Telfer would alleviate the usual slump alongside the fact that development was proceeding without a DFS and DTM BUT were proved wrong due to various factors, fair enough.
- The resulting sector sentiment and asset prices since early 2021 didn't favour AIM juniors generally until of late where the benefit still hasn't completed the usual top/down move for most AIM Juniors as has the lack of any new exploration results that might entail starting a new discovery hype journey from another project.
- The fixed path to production via a Newcrest JV was safe enough especially once GGP managed funding to be secured, again with a DFS still to be published. But unfortunately events have transpired to the current situation with Newmont buying Newcrest and deciding to divest Hav/Telfer.
- The transaction itself delayed the DFS/DTM and also the production schedule has extended due to this and some issues related to LCA from what was predicted in the PFS, on reflection as a newer sector investor, I'll be adding significant time onto initial production estimates within PFS studies in future as the norm in future investments and the same for development in more complex projects
- So we find ourselves in a situation where the market awaits the outcome of whom will own both assets and whether this means that GGP will be sole owners, find themselves in a new JV or perhaps even have their stake in Havieron bought or a takeover as IMO more remote possibilities but still profitable for most investors hopefully.
- I do recognise that many made a mistake thinking the path to production would be assured with Newcrest but M&A on such a scale is not easy to predict and that we'd only experience a minimal effect of the Orphan Period. Personally I was increasingly more reserved about further exploration success in the short term as my own knowledge increased about under-cover exploration and related info.
Easy to post on boards that you played the swings better when you actually never posted in my recall during the rise of 2020 on here... as you're such the sector expert, perhaps you can articulate what GGP management itself could have done instead during the last 4 years?
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