RE: Current SP5 Dec 2024 10:56
I agree with MH01, firstly I think a SP target based on existing SP of 20p by end of 2025 is a fair upper-range to set for GGP, my range of growth I expect is somewhere in 200-300% if the market favours our Telfer updates and Havieron DFS plus macro not turning against us by end of 2025.
2-3 bagger doesn't sound as sexy as 2020 does it... but that was a different time and a different company - kiss that 38p ATH away, it's not relevant any more IMO. We just bought Telfer and Havieron outright and issued a lot of shares to get there. How accretive value is translated over time into SP growth is hard to predict so early into our journey.
Secondly - we know we're consolidating around ASX so we should focus on MCap moving forward, make a note of todays and base your target ranges off multiples off that vs the SP - as we'll probably consolidate by mid 2025 for ASX. The SP consolidation is more about optics as I think Antigua mentioned - to help attract more insto type suitors I would think.
2020 Discovery hype, 12 rigs, money printers in overdrive was just a different time. The growth will be less explosive and extended now IMO as the 2nd wave usually is of LC. Personally, I'll be unhappy and adapt or exit my holding if we're not at least 200% increased by end of 2025, but this allows GGP team time to execute their initial stages in Go Forward plan beyond Hav DFS/DTM to give me an accurate gauge of what this team can do in terms of shareholder value.
I again would suggest, set yourself a clear target about a year ahead and stop worrying too much about daily SP fluctuations for now. I'd also add I am really dissapointed for those holding high averages and kind of locked in now if timeframes allow them to wait. Who could have predicted the crazy events that would unfold - we do own both assets but a price has been paid at the very least in terms of time.
Hopefully the fact that GGP controls it's own destiny and owns these two assets outright without onerous debt burden and a potentially non-dilutive pathway to Hav production will counterbalance the way the deal was structured :-)