Member Info for Dip666

We'a all love to see your workings for your assumptions mumbo?
I'm sure having taken a stab at an actual value, you can elaborate on how you came to this?
Over to you bud -)

Hi matty - Oh i definitely haven't said GGP are inclined to sell :-)
Just to elaborate there has been an ongoing conversation of whether NCM making a bid for our entire stake in Havieron would trigger just a shareholder notification or if we get to vote.
I won't go through it all again but I can't fathom especially at this stage how when certain class tests are applied to ascertain if Havieron represents 75% of our assets or less, that is what the 75% is in relation too, not a percentage of shareholders voting for something.

Look at it from NCM's POV guys.
They had 12 months to push the trigger but why wait for:
- 90,000m of growth drilling which in all honesty is just going to increase the price tag
- further modelling building the case for larger resource assumptions as above with each set of results
- potentially we have hit at Zipa/HN too
- further resource growth potential from MRE's and FS before 2023
- regional assumptions from further results from more positive potential from Juri JC and Scally and neighbours such as Artemis all add to the potential price tag for the 5% when it comes to the more speculative aspects

Also were I him, I'm agreeing a one-off price tag as per the FMV process, paying it and banking another 5% away of this amazing asset and anything else in the mining lease that comes up trumps in the decades ahead.
Now if NCM do play funny buggers then IMO Shaun may as well play the roulette wheel with a 3rd party assessment - but I really don't think it comes to that.
Look at this as an opportunity to secure some/all of the funding costs for the starter mine as if we're still onboard when production starts then the route to free cash flow looks pretty clear to me - even at this stage.
There is the danger NCM make a move - but I struggle to see how Havieron can't be seen to be at least 75% of our assets given we have very little else proven up yet.........so we should see it go to a SH vote not just a notification IMO.

@5x5 - pretty bloody inconsiderate of Bill to drop this RNS after I typed in all of those questions just the other day...... but with those grades......... I'll let him off this time lol

Wow so you held while it was Arian Silver Hydro.... hell of a ride mate :-)
Don't blame you for keeping in the background here - this boards hard work sometimes as not had the benefit of 6 weekly results to keep spirits up.
Well - tonight is going to be double the fun with results night over the other side too after this RNS.......I'll apologise to my liver now!

Good to see you back here Hydro, knew I was onto another great explorer when I first posted here and realised you were already in :-)
This is another one that's been hard work holding during 2021 - but as far as I'm concerned, keep letting the fundamentals stack up ready for when money rotates back to the sector and we will see some amazing gains again in the likes of UFO and GGP.

TBH I'd rather they return not only with the Veative acquisition completed but with the planned material contract under NDA being announced to market to kick off a new phase of growth :-)

@sandgrounded - They can only use this pre-agreed FMV process for 5% the one time as per the JV contract I think, but of course they can come back at any time and put in an offer for all of or a percentage of Hav, but probably well aware that it will cost them more than a favourable (in their view) valuation from the FMV process set out might, as GGP (and most of us) will be unwilling to part with Hav for anything they might term reasonable.
As I detailed earlier in another thread, adjudication or not, we probably end up not being informed of what a 3rd party FMV is or what valuations both submnitted - just what is agreed.
Unfortunately IMO as a 3rd party FMV would be a better indicator of FMV (as of Feb 2022) for our entire stake of Hav, some really weird valuations can result from adjudication as I displayed earlier and that was just playing around with numbers from one party and using the same FMV conclusion from a 3rd party.

LOL Mush - exciting is definitely one word for it mate and think about the work our livers are doing too in the name of GGP results evening's!
Hopefully the next 12 months see's yours and many others plans back on track bud :-))

Oops my uber long post should read looking at scenarios 2 & 3!

Freddie, probably a consultancy firm such as SRK Consulting who authored and conducted the example I studied who conducts valuations under the Valmin Code as they would have the relevant experience/knowledge to assess a FMV to judge both valuations.

We have to also keep in mind that that the 5% FM valuation we will probably see is a result of two teams negotiating, not the same as an actual public valuation report conducted using guidance under the Valmin Code where some of us can happily pore over a massive document reviewing every little detail.

If the above were the case, we would see a range of values and then a case for selecting a particular value and methodology from the various ranges and secondary methods used to justify final assumptions.

Example:
1/ Valuations within a 10% range are agreed so average taken and £210m is the price tag for NCM to mull over for 30 days because :
- GGP happy at £220m
- NCM happy at £200m
Both happy.

2/ Say we go to arbitration and £200m gets determined as the price tag for NCM to mull over for 30 days because :
- GGP submitted £425m for their valuation
- NCM submitted £200m for their valuation
- 3rd party calculated £300m FMV so they go with NCM's value as per FMV process as determined as being closer to FMV
NCM happier.

3/ Say we go to arbitration and £350m gets determined as the price tag for NCM to mull over for 30 days because:
- GGP submitted £350m for their valuation
- NCM submitted £200m for their valuation
- 3rd party calculated £300m FMV so they go with GGP's value as per FMV process as determined being closer to FMV
GGP happier.

We'll only be told the final price tag from my understanding, perhaps not even if they had to use an average if no 3rd party required? If so, then making assumptions it is an accurate and true valuation is perhaps not that accurate as taking the FMV price tag and calculating our 30% of Havieron is thrown off by even a £10m difference for each 5% :-)

Looking at scenario's 1 and 2, to me it really really makes sense for NCM/GGP to be collaborative as some really random outcomes could happen via 3rd party based on whatever valuation each party submits, even with the same FMV value and also why I think each need to keep this in mind and be sensible!

The end objective for NCM is that they want 5% which is why they exercised the option so they'll try to ensure that outcome which may entail not playing too hardball and ending up with a 3rd party coming in and playing God.
I go back to the process - they've agreed to a pretty decent framework IMO and in all likelihood to ensure they are seen as a responsible and ethical corporation and not to be seen as taking advantage.

Some forget that NCM 's overarching strategy is not just about Havieron or indeed Australia - look at their portfolio - spinning a lot of plates and the Pretium deal displays they have growth plans on other continent's too.
Good idea to think about NCM's strategy with the more corporate and expansive POV that Sandeep and their BOD have, yes Havieron is critical to Telfer but they have to spend a lot of time and focus on other things.
In a way, their grip on Havieron is very secure as they already hold 70% (and probably soon 75%)and time is their friend in that they could perhaps choose to buy out in a few years after risk is vastly nullified and they have a better idea of Juri/Scally prospectivity. yes they pay more - but risk is lessened at that stage so would balance things out from a corporate view.
Good corporations take long term views carefully weighting risk as much as opportunities, don't get me wrong they may well buy us out by 2023 but when considering things from NCM's view - take onboard all of their considerations as a business and also their major shareholders who are probably more risk averse than us crazy b@stards :-)

no probs and happy to help mate - hopefully Thursday night will see a bit more of a cheerful mood return here - forget Ukraine - think we've got WW3 kicking off here :-)

Sandgrounded - brief from the valuation I studied may help understand scope, think they spent about 2 months on it :-)

SRK’s work program included:
• Compiling a description of the Kharmagtai Project, including ownership status, provisions and encumbrances, project history, geological setting and resource/ target base
• Reviewing and commenting on recent exploration activities
• Reviewing the available technical information including the stated Mineral Resource estimate in accordance with the JORC Code (2012) to determine their reasonableness for valuation purposes
• Preparing an outline of the valuation methodologies and principal assumptions adopted by SRK in determining the valuation ranges and preferred value, including details of the relevant market factors.
• SRK has not carried out any Mineral Resource calculation or re-estimation activities for the purposes of its Report.
• SRK’s opinion is based on technical information provided to SRK by Xanadu throughout the course of SRK’s assessments as described in this Report, which in turn reflects various technical and economic conditions at the time of writing.
• Such technical information as provided by Xanadu was taken in good faith by SRK. SRK has not independently verified the Mineral Resource estimates by means of recalculation.

You can download the summary and synopsis I created from links below for more detail :-)
https://gofile.io/d/F6zf67
https://gofile.io/d/6Ux9Hy

Tom, I know I am one of the people who have been looking into methods and projections for assessing the 5% / valmin code etc. mate so perhaps annoyed you too - but I have a background that lends itself well to that - and in my case I am using my real identity on TG/twitter so easy for anyone to check on me.
I think it has been time well spent in allaying some concerns and some fear mongering personally and certainly the FMV process is a lot more clearer in my bulleted breakdown than the original RNS as an example :-)
Same for those with geo, finance and engineering backgrounds posting here - I welcome their input in my investing decisions. and clarifying things I don't understand. Hydro, Bamps, Paddy,, Magic and so many others helped outline the potential for a Tier 1 mine here while we had many many doubters (genuine and devious) and we are so close to official recognition of this.
I bet many more of us would have sold out below 2-3p than ended up doing, fair few did as I see them posting on other explorers all the time chasing back a lost opportunity. Even SB with his at times negative slant definitely has experience in the areas he says he does, and I'll take in what he has to say and consider his Intent.
I feel it is a shame you're falling out with other LTHers you've been through years of volatility with here mate, a lot of the arguments amongst genuine posters is due to finally being run down by the SP, the pandemic and the stress and strains it has had etc.

UFO won't go bust IMO Parkboy but understand your concerns but frankly there are absolute sh*tshow of explorers out there that survive just fine. I think there is enough experience in the team to negate that outcome and also enough geological promise in our Oz tenements to attract more money if required via placings etc.
Until we have revenue we have to consider the potential for more placings and of course, we know we have a fair amount of work planned in terms of exploration. Lloyd and the biutique firm should also be working on feasibility studies etc. with Han**** to aid with securing debt funding potential and JV's are still viable options too in the longer term. We need to drill more in order to enable these to transpire - no other way.
The question is, will we see the money rotate back into our sector really for those looking at mostly the SP and perhaps trading out for shorter term profit. Personally, although slower than I anticipated in 2020 - things do seem to be working out in a manner I anticipated they might so am expecting to do even better than I have from this sector since rotating a significant amount of my portfolio into this sector . I'm not looking at trading out but for bigger long term gains - quality will out IMO but painful volatility still ahead to weather first.

If you have issues then perhaps submit questions using the link below or ask them on Tuesday during the presentation - at least make it clear what you want to see from Tuesday. I have made the effort to submit mine, so Bill and team know what I'd like to see explained on Tuesday.

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/investor-presentation-95

I will say this BB - until we see an inflow of money back into the sector - I am not expecting any huge moves irrespective of positive news in the likes of UFO and GGP.
A lot hinges on the Fed and how hawkish or dovish they are tomorrow and how this in turn affects the markets, but we kind of need a market correction and rotation to really return to form for this sector.
You can either wait to see or try your luck elsewhere as unlikely you'll see 3p in the very short term here again IMO.
UFO do need to use the investor prez next Tuesday to outline plans in more detail for Oz and also clear up the Mexico questions and articulate a clear and logical roadmap for the next few years.

Most explorers have no income and high cash burn and ultimately most fall by the wayside, but we do have good progress on the Oz projects and with Han**** we have a clear route to monetisation and an action plan.

01/12/21 RNS re. Han****
New Iron Ore Company established to expedite development
Alien Metals Ltd (LSE AIM:UFO), a minerals exploration and development company, is pleased to
advise that, as part of its development of the Han**** and Brockman Iron Ore projects, it has formed
a new wholly owned subsidiary named Iron Ore Company of Australia Pty Ltd (‘IOCA’).

• IOCA has already commenced building a strong Perth based management team, focussed on
these iron ore projects in Western Australia
• IOCA has engaged a boutique environmental company, Green Values Australia, to commence
and complete necessary statutory permitting to convert the Exploration Licence to a Mining
Lease for the Han**** tenement
• Commencement of discussions with interested parties in Iron Ore for possible offtake
agreements
• Company engagement with the contract mining sector for drill, blast, crush and screen
activities and with the contract haulage and logistics sector
• Planning of detailed metallurgical test work programme
• Phase 3 drilling commenced

09/12/21 RNS re. reopening the EH mine
· Alien has purchased mining headframe, machinery and equipment to re-open and access the historic Elizabeth Hill silver mine after over 20 years of the mine lying dormant. The previous owner produced over 1m oz silver with exceptional grades of 2,195 g/t (70/oz t)

· Elizabeth Hill is the only pure silver mine in Western Australia set to re-open
· Re-opening of the existing underground workings will provide access to the unmined orebody in the workings as well as enable detailed mapping and sampling of the orebody to better understand potential extensions
· It will also enable an opportunity to update the silver resource directly from underground, as well as enabling a significant opportunity to expedite drilling of the polymetallic mineralised halo also from underground
· Initial assay results from the most recent drilling programme, which intersected visual silver and nickel and copper sulphide mineralisation, are expected during December 2021
· The original underground mining team has been commissioned and the equipment is en-route to Elizabeth Hill
· This commission will include the establishment of an on-site camp
· Initial planning for technical work, including all necessary permitting and equipment accreditation, is underway

Munni Munni, we have targets in the northern area around EH , finalising paperwork to allow trenching and drilling in conjunction with mapping and surface sampling along with the acquisitions in progress to consolidate the Munni Munni and EH region.