Member Info for Dip666

Yep - NCM have 30 days to purchase the 5% at the determined 'price tag' - even if they don't like the price because the arbitration process results in our valuation being selected as nearer FMV.
My thoughts are NCM will purchase that 5% at whichever valuation is selected if it goes to arbitration if they need 75% to enable making key decisions without us - as seems to be the norm in Oz in mining JV's with 75/25 split ownership.
Best way forward for those of us favouring going into production is that both decide on a valuation (either mutually or within 10%), shake hands and keep things uncomplicated IMO.
And this is exactly what Shaun was saying in the last two interviews - along with advising us that if something is mutually agreed, it probably also means that GGP have had to be compromise a bit on that value.

Hi Z - yes I know as the info came to light on TG well before being posted here - I wasn't querying whether we were getting any, just that I'm very interested in it :-)

I've only been taking detailed notes of presentations/interviews since Shaun came into the role as CEO......why?
We weren't really talking about anything much but exploration results before that from Gervaise in any meaningful detail and we have plenty of information about those from the exploration reports and some great experts to interpret them for us non geo's.
What we've been getting from Shaun is strategy and vision for GGP above and beyond being a partner in Havieron with NCM, rewatch the presentations, read my notes and perhaps map out a longer term investing strategy rather than watching daily SP movements if you don't have short timeframes for requiring your capital back.
Of course, we might get bought out/taken over - but should that happen - I'll worry about it then and IMO just means a shorter and lesser payday vs the potential returns over many decades through 25-30% ownership of an asset such as Havieron in production.
We still have the usual risks that apply to a mine in development of course, but also reduced risk in terms of financial burdens and the level of development required and also highly compelling exploration opportunities in our portfolio I am excited about personally.
I understand why many are aggrieved at the thought of yesterday's PSR's given the SP decline, but we have some exceptionally skilled staff to try and retain in the years ahead and I'd like to see them invested in being rewarded through performance and being inclined to stick around if we stay the course vs buyout etc. Very interested in gaining more visibility of what those actual targets/KPI's are though too of course :-)

NCM Investor call is 09:30am AEDT so Wed 16 Feb 10:30pm GMT

@Malvolio - I checked the process directly with GGP and they confirmed my understanding was correct but also detailed that changes can be incorporated as long as both agree - adding further complexity lol
Makes sense for the arbitrator/s to use the data and create their own valuation ranges and then decide how much they think FMV is as under Valmin guidance, they'll need to justify their decision in some detail - probably in a non-public report available to both GGP/NCM.
Also interesting that Shaun said something about arbitration bringing in a number of independent valuations in the Proactive interview - hard to know what that one means either!
Mid-Feb next week so I assume talks on mutually agreeing as per Stage 1 are ongoing this week as they probably have agreed the MRE 2 by now to aid the process and also feed into the HY Results, we'll have clarity in 9 days on the MRE at the very least to help some of our assumptions :-)

@JoeB - fair enough chap but already been confirmed that the Valmin Code will be utilised by the arbitrator and valuations have a specific cut-off date to place an 'at this time' value, metrics such as POG, further exploration results, optimisation studies etc. would keep arbitration running for years.
IMO this won't happen - NCM have agreed a process with GGP that has a specific timeline so they can close on the 5% by year-end. As a complete valuation can be created in a couple of months, I suspect arbitration might run for a few months but not past the expiration date for the option exercise. This 5% may be critical if they need it to make make strategical and operational decisions without influence by GGP - which seems likely given some information BottleRocket signposted.
The 3rd party will look at both valuations and judge them on the shared data they were using and determine which is closest to FMV under guidance specified by the Code. I have a background in having run a market and business intelligence business hence my interest in breaking down and analysing how the code can be applied. Might be worthwhile spending a few hours to read through everything to help inform your analysis so while a 3rd party assessment will be objective (usually the case), you'll have a clear understanding of the framework that assumptions are suppose to follow.

@Gold- no arbitration is still very much a possibility unless a price is agreed either mutually or within 10% of each other, the 30 day period is in relation to how long Newcrest have to consider and act on the 'price tag' that is determined for 5% of Havieron through the exercise. Clarification below.

Stage 1 - Mutual Agreement?
1) Newcrest want to agree the option exercise price by mid-feb 2022

Stage 2 - Agree within 10%?
2) If Newcrest/GGP do not mutually agree on a Fair Market Value by this date then both parties put forward their own valuations
3) If both of these valuations are within 10% of each other, then the average will be considered the valuation for Newcrest to exercise their 5% option.

Stage 3 - Proceed to Arbitration?
4) If there is a greater than 10% disparity, an independent expert is brought in to choose which one of the estimates is fair market value, so I assume that is the price that needs to be paid by Newcrest - (This is the 3rd and final process to ensure a price tag is established)

Once a price is agreed during Stages 1, 2 or 3
5) Newcrest then has 30 business days to exercise its option to acquire the additional 5% on the determined price tag
6) Should they choose to go ahead, then proceeds from the exercise will firstly be used to repay the outstanding balance of the existing loan we have from Newcrest.

GGP/NCM can agree to anything outside the process above too as long as both of them are happy, think of it as a framework to encourage professionalism and sensible approaches.

Hi Joe - placed a link below so you or anyone interested can read information on and understand how Valmin valuations are put together mate, guidance on assumptions around reasonable grounds/tests apply around more speculative elements, hence the uncertainty to both going down the arbitration route along with the very wide variations in valuations as can be evidenced in the valuation example.
I've collated regs/rules in one folder and also created another with a summary of the SRK valuation I looked at, with an even more concise synopsis. Just trying to help fellow investors allay concerns by breaking things down as that's how I like to try and understand complicated processes I am not familiar with as a non-geo :-)
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/uv8jaum5kycrr/-+FMV+Valuation

Obviously you're entitled to your opinion and perceptions on best way forward and what you feel Shaun thinks is the best strategy, but his words were very clear in both the latest Proactive Forum and the mid-week Sunday Roast podcast last week on favouring a commercial agreement over prolonged arbitration and statements made - link to my notes below from both -:
https://www.mediafire.com/file/ytp0gtchvwqam94/Notes_from_Proactive_Results_Interview_-_31_Jan_2022.pdf/file
https://www.mediafire.com/file/wv88dnvbc4lqeh4/Notes_from_The_Sunday_Roast_Podcast_-_02_Feb_2022.pdf/file

The event will take place between 6:00 - 8:00 pm 17 Feb, UK time, with Alien holding a presentation and Q&A session at approximately 7:00 pm. To attend the online event, investors can register via the following link: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/1433/0vvl4bgrq

@joeb - Valmin guided valuations have a cut off date for data consideration, so arbitration would probably use the same date as used for Stage 1(mutual agreement) and also Stage 2 (within 10%?) negotiations if we enter into Stage 3 (arbitration). Seems to be some lack of understanding of this, especially on twitter. How is a 3rd party going to judge which Stage 2 submitted valuation is closer to FMV unless comparing using the same date for data cut-off?
Shaun has communicated that JV partners tend to favour entering commercial agreements vs arbitration in such scenario's, this is what Greatland favours and he thinks Newcrest will too - but warned it does probably require compromise on our part on the numbers if something Greatland find acceptable is agreed.
He also mentioned the pre-production stage that Havieron is at lends itself to a wide range of valuations which causes uncertainty for both parties if we enter arbitration. I found some very wide ranges too in the variety of techniques that can be used and when looking at the Kharmatagai valuation by SRK. We have a SRK consultant in our technical committee who can help us ascertain likely outcomes of independent valuations, so if Shaun thinks the best way forward is mutual agreement, it probably is.
I don't think anything is going to get held up if we enter arbitration either, the decline and drilling will continue as planned along with other infrastructure plans as the FMV exercise is worked through, the valuation I looked at took a couple of months to complete from the date it was commissioned and Newcrest have until end of 2022.
We could potentially be in partnership for decades at Havieron so makes sense to try and maintain good relations with Newcrest, plenty of growth potential in the remaining 25% and better certainty of a decent valuation outside arbitration IMO.
As I noted before, at least we get some transactional value from the last 5% as we just go to 25% on the Juri JV if stage 2 commitments are met by Newcrest :-)

@spoon_key - No one likes uncertainty, but we do have the MRE 2 coming up in 2 weeks to help buoy us on either an underwhelming valuation or extension into arbitration. A more positive take on the Option Exercise is to consider that with terms in the Juri JV, we just move to 25% if NCM meet all Stage 2 commitments.
With the Hav JV, we will get transactional value from NCM acquiring the final 5% to meet their 75% target, we'll cover our loan plus some/all of the Starter Mine development costs at least and fingers crossed, perhaps more. I suspect we will only ever get to know the final value and very little detail outside of this whether it's decided on Stage 1 (mutual agreement), Stage 2 (agree values within 10%?) or Stage 3 (arbitration) of the exercise, not too bothered as we can move on after it's concluded and focus on resource growth and studies into 2023.
HAD104 in the latest results shows again that we still have plenty of growth to come in our remaining 25% of Havieron. Shaun and the BOD seem unlikely to recommend any potential buy-out that doesn't come in at a value TODAY that we would only achieve after 3 to 5 years worth of work to build a fairly accurate picture of Havieron's full potential as based on his Sunday Roast interview :-)

* Happy all progressing in the right direction?
- Absolutely, very fortunate as still very tough in WA as borders still locked but still managed to achieve a lot during the pandemic
- Some excellent people, having Lloyd down there a huge advantage and he is very engaged and well connected so having lots of serious discussions with several parties
- Also, just announced stunning drill results on Elizabeth Hill early drilling and hoping to close the acquisition of the Munni Munni JV project to the south which we feel is an undervalued and under-explored project and with a big concerted effort hope to bring it up to something significant in a short amount of time
- Should be ready very soon to get back on track in Mexico too - all guns blazing.

* 3 reasons to invest in UFO?
1/ Commodities :
- Iron Ore - ‘Green’ ore at highest grade and in most demand short, medium and long-term for great projects that are really low cost- high income/profit
- PGE’s - Platinum/Pallidum market demand growing with electrical vehicle, hybrid vehicles and catalytic converters demand (core uses and requirements)
- Silver - value of silver is still not understood or appreciated
2/ Great team in place and adding more key people in coming months
3/ Jurisdictions (WA/Mexico) as in two tier 1 mining regions with great support, infrastructure and mining histories we can feed off and make use of.

****End***

Interview: https://audioboom.com/posts/8025391-bill-brodie-good-of-alien-metals-discusses-the-continued-high-grade-iron-ore-results-at-the-hanco
RNS: http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/6709A_1-2022-2-3.pdf
Download: https://www.mediafire.com/file/b164ob1sxgmzs2v/Notes_from_Vox_interview_for_continued_high-grade_iron_ore_results_at_Han****_-_04_Feb_2022.pdf/file

* Overview of current projects?
- 3 main projects:
1/ Iron Ore in Pilbara, WA
2/ along with EH/Munni Munni also in Pilbara for Silver, Copper, Nickel and PGE’s also gaining momentum
3/ and Silver/Copper projects in Mexico hopefully advancing very soon.

* Update on latest HG (high grade) iron ore results in Han****?
- Phase 3 drilling in progress undertaking more resource drilling to increase resource from Inferred to Indicated
- Tested some new targets, 10.5Mt already defined as HG at plus 60%, but only scratched surface in terms of potential
- Had a couple of machines on site as part of the scope of work so decided to take a bulk sample to advance mining development aspect of the project, took a bulk 2.4 ton sample from a pit from one of the drill platforms from the middle of Ridge C resource
- Took 9 piles of dirt from each level as they went down into pit with machine and gathered representative samples and quickly had them assayed at the lab to ensure consistency of grade
- Fantastic results, 8 out of 9 averaged 62.2% and the top result was at surface where we expected a lower grade but still came back in at 59.8%, very exciting and now have a good sized bulk sample at labs for metallurgical testing to improve knowledge of mining processes, product yields and also generate customer samples for potential offtake partners (with several in talks already) for due diligence testing.

* Timeline of news and events and expectations for the next year?
- This time next year Lloyd would like to be at a ‘shovel ready’ production status at Han**** with all permitting in place with necessary infrastructure, not much required as essentially a haul road
- Everything else is to be supplied by contractors such as mining equipment, processing of screening and crushing (crushing unlikely though) and haulage to Port Hedland
- In meantime have another big drilling plan ready for after the wet season but currently doing metallurgical testing, analysing results, planning and securing appropriately more nimble and agile drilling machines that can roar around on new ridges for quick holes while background team getting on with permitting and the Mining Plus team work on mine development
- This is just for Han****, by mid 2022 plan to get some holes into Brockman and bring that project up to speed and feel it has as much, if not more potential than Han****.

Contd....

If you're offering CJ, personally I prefer the Tar and Feather approach though!

I just provided a link so people can check in case of any further doubts than having a pop at you :-)

@CJ

Row 37 in spreadsheet below mate:
https://www.vaneck.com/etf/equity/gdxj/holdings/download/xlsx/

Also link below and from top right/hand drop down ensure you've selected the region as United States:
https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/junior-gold-miners-etf-gdxj/holdings/

Always a pleasure Timber :-)

I see a CEO who understands the challenges ahead with clear strategical direction and a comprehensive understanding of the work ahead, not some flaky figurehead with mindless soundbites.
IMO and from my own experience of running a company, large projects and consulting - we have the right man for the job - whatever comes up.
Exciting if somewhat uncertain times ahead with the option exercise but we also have the MRE2 as a counterpoint.
Havieron gives us that rarity on AIM - intrinsic value - we'll either go into production or Sandeep needs to entice the Gollum like vice grip of many PI's here with 'an offer we can't refuse' IMO :-))

Link below to download my detailed notes from yesterday's Sunday Roast Podcast with Shaun :-)

https://www.mediafire.com/file/wv88dnvbc4lqeh4/Notes_from_The_Sunday_Roast_Podcast_-_02_Feb_2022.pdf/file

I've been thinking (or perhaps hoping!) that if NCM make a move for all the treasure or indeed GGP, that it will be post FS and hopefully their purchase of Pretium helps that scenario along - as they might need more justification for another acquisition so close to another - but we also know they're pretty well cashed up. There isn't a rush with us as well I feel, in that we're already tied up in a JV.
Sandeep may also think the FS can help him push a planned acquisition through easier internally, displaying ROI would be easier with the FS in hand along with more data and assumptions from the 2022 growth drilling program, even if it means paying more.
Like the 5% outcome - all theories have credence until we see something play out :-))

Straight from the Horses **** - fill the gap :-))

Just goes to show - whatever the 5% FMV outcome , we'll retain 25% in an asset that just keeps on growing........and growing........and growing :-)