RE: Newcrest15 Jan 2026 15:35
@E1 - I'm sure I made that comment as a general observation rather than singling anyone out mate :-))
We were all guessing blind to some extent given we didn't and still don't know what the small print was around the specific metrics to be adopted - Berenberg had an upside of $228m I think for FMV under the Option Exercise, don't quote me on that but I will have a copy of the note saved on my hard drive.
I can't even remember exactly how I got to $65m for my conservative guess for NCM valuation winning (turned out theirs was lower still!) when making my guess in that small TG group we made a friendly wage in and my upside was $170.8m, so around yours. By exactly I mean why I chose the specific conservative values and particular methodology from the two I had adopted.
As one of the lads in that group pointed out when my valuation came closest to the real outcome - not sure I'd actually 'won' anything given the actual value of $60m lol
I only kept notes describing each methodology in general - not the reasoning for using each value I decided upon, big oversight there really as looking back now a few years later... that would have been useful to help recall the detail... but I doubt I thought I'd still be invested here at that time!
In hindsight I have no idea why I felt so arrogantly confident putting in the very large sum of money I did in Jan 2020 into GGP thinking I'd learnt enough reading up in a couple of months about this sector... given what I've learned since about how little I actually do understand - and realise now what an absurd risk I unknowingly took :-)
I'm not the sentimental type where I'll ever want a Hav coin unless we get a huge discount but GGP has added significantly to my retirement portfolio, so it's been a very special investment, as much for the community aspect of getting a win over the big boys by combining many different skills amongst us.
Being proved right about what I might have thought back in 2020 is not a big concern for me - been happy to own any mistakes and reflect on learning points. Which seems to rather irritate certain fools who criticise me and seem to think you're not suppose to change your mind about anything you've ever thought.
The point of all of this was to make a big juicy profit to help enhance future retirement - and that goal has been achieved with style - it's now about how much profit, not whether 'this' will work out.
I don't care if people think we've been lucky or clever as LTH, winning is winning and we won big time on AIM of all places :-))