Member Info for Dip666

I have a feeling that...

- Plode is gonna Implode

- Aim999 is breaking wind while propping up some bar in Woolloomooloo regaling (and boring to death) total strangers with tall tales about his trading prowess

- RiskReepReward is back from the dead busking outside Tesco's in Canary 'Wharfe' filling the air with his best rendition of 'Gold' by Spandau Ballet

- FantasticMrFox is home snuggling in his den sniffing the old Sherbert Dip Dab so he can astound the world with more of his breakdowns on mining stocks

- My BFF Tymers is in a planning meeting via Zoom discussing how many shares his international Conglomerate will pick up tomorrow, Buy Buy Buy!

Good short article talking about drivers for consolidation in the industry and how shortfall of supply should supersede current asset prices to drive up premiums:

https://www.fxexplained.co.uk/forex-articles/current-market-analysis/mining-sector-consolidation-4-factors-to-understand-before-you-invest/

Great post by Rational Assessor who has looked at the legislation around an AIM companies shareholder obligations and whether they are allowed to withhold information from public release if there could be a detrimental outcome for the company for any reason.

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=699

Just a joke CP, familiar with TA and dead cat bounce terminolgy, lighten up :-)

And good to see Aimless back, no doubt recovering from his latest escapades while sozzled on Castlemaine 4x...

You have bad form with 'cats' CP... RSPCA beckoning if you threaten to harm any more!

here's the link to that thread :-)

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=692

Old fandoozled foxy is probably familiar with certain ounces and grams from his addled posts, just not the type he needs to be conversant with for investing!!!

Foxy, let us hope you and the 'investment club' I recall you mentioning on your past appearances isn't 'spread' too thin :-))

Current?
Production slated for early 2024 with SLOS 'Starter mine' and expectations for DFS is it may well push the mine officially to Tier 1 status with an updated resource update approaching closer to 10MoZ, increasing LOM in line with expected circa 3mtpa production profile making this currently frustrating wait for DFS very much worth it hopefully, fingers crossed.

Future?
Further studies to follow for bulk mining other zonations and increasing extraction rates, very clear that current mine planning is incorporating forward planning for bulk and/or selective mining from other sections of the ore body from what Shaun has intimated. Also as the infrastructure is put in place for mining it will allow further resource growth to be rapidly delineated from underground drilling further increasing resource size and LOM potential. Potential for Nickel and molybdenum perhaps? The plan is to quickly 'fill the mill' at Telfer with 10mtpa rate for Train B and the grades will be higher than the ore from Telfer provides even if not using up the full 20mtpa capacity Telfer can action.

This plan to be mining from various fronts during the multi decade nature of Havieron was being voiced way back in the day by the previous Newcrest CEO Sandeep before he became somewhat coy before the Option Exercise. Whomever owns Havieron, that optionality won't just disappear and with a 86% recovery rate and forecasted AISC that will fall within lowest quartile globally - I'm certain Havieron is going to be mined for many a decade providing very good profitability.

Plenty of factors playing out right now that are muddying the waters with the Newmont bid so I appreciate the general market is unclear of true potential here inc. due to delayed MRE/DFS. None of that was in the team's control, second half of this year promises to be very interesting IMO once we see where the Newmont bid is going.

Something seems to be making you nervous Foxy - market going against your position here?

@RAH - Official MRE's and Feasibility Studies are what underpin value for GGP, enable funding and determine a project being brought into production normally despite the fact much expenditure and development is occurring pre DFS. Until they are published the market often ignores potential - the point of all that drilling and the resultant data is to feed the assumptions and forecasts in these to enable the above. We'll be categorised lower in risk as these are published.

TBF Tig has a a point in that we're way way behind the curve in official paperwork reflecting the up to date picture at Hav if you look at the latest Official MRE and PFS and their data cut-offs . The debate is whether GGP should be issuing an independent MRE or not itself right now than anyone spreading FUD, Tig and others on that side of the fence are debating that an independent MRE should be released but are still believers in the company, they just don't agree with the plan at moment, while many of us do.

No offence but anyone can post volumes, trades and buys as all very easy to view. That's not what has brought many of us together to collaborate on this board, the TG group and resulted in the GGPChat forum and a YouTube channel where Shaun is interviewed by Liam every quarter. It is by very much to analyse and break down the technical data and strategy and make it easier to understand for others and be ahead of the curve.

Surely better to debate with rather than accuse others of either ramping or deramping when they are putting forward cogent views vs immature rubbish the site owners can't be bothered to moderate :-)

Firstly Tig, I too fully sympathise and although I think we are best playing the current strategy, totally understand your POV mate. As most of us here for a few years know, you've always been an advocate for the potential with GGP so @RAH0084 you're widely off the mark chap. Many LTHers are having a wobble too having lost large paper profits with the current SP and a potential quiet period until ASX listing which is why we've had the return of the trolls. The pain is felt on many fronts with such a SP drop from LTH investors to newer sat on capital losses.

Let's explore the semantics of Shaun keeping information back from shareholders... we're in a JV where the majority owner has the control of MRE and Feasibility Study releases for the most part. The Option Exercise required GGP to submit a valuation in accordance to the Valmin Code so Shaun smartly had an MRE built to do so and of course used the excuse that as it was a 'material update' to release publicly. Valmin Code valuations are mostly kept non-public I think as part of a bid or price determination process although they can be public on occasion as don't seem to be many floating around to review.

Shaun has said GGP are already acting as sole owners in the event they may become so post Newmont bid outcomes playing out and could release a DFS 'in weeks' and will have been reviewing drafts from Newcrest to base theirs from, he also said that they wouldn't wait for ever and could press the issue if needed.

Well, you can surely bet that the team have also been keeping their modelling up to date since the last GGP MRE as drill data comes in so they can also create an updated MRE in a very short period of time. If the need to publish one urgently comes up, I am sure they will do so in the event of a bid for GGP or Havieron etc. and if it makes sense to publicly release an updated MRE.

Shaun himself has plenty of experience in M&A as a CFO so would have been involved in every facet of planning strategy around how to make an offer or divest assets and he also has decades of experience at his disposal from Gaines, Barnaba and Wilson who've held some of the most senior positions in the entire industry at Fortescue, BHP etc. and sat on boards such as the Reserve Bank of Australia. They know a few things about strategy you'd assume.

@SS, why would you sell Havieron, well you might have to if a party comes in with an offer that offers enough upside now vs waiting years to gain the same value and wins enough shareholders over. Always been a danger of having a low SP for a long period and many factors feeding into having a low SP right now outside the prism of GGP.

To work out a valuation you agree to a 'point in time' and then draw conclusions utilising data up to that date.

The valuation is then built as outlined earlier and is subjective really as based on the teams interpretation of data based on their chosen methods but both parties would have decided and agreed on a 3rd party.

You need to read through and study a valuation to understand how they're structured.

In a sense in a negotiation you're arguing value more loosely if not going through this process of assigning a 3rd party to build valuations for each asset but still you're arguing based on interpretation, any MRE that exists helps pin down a value on a project, NCM's usual corporate policy of conservative metrics is a negative now they are a seller. GGP creating an MRE for the Option Exercise proves the value of an updated MRE in any price determination IMO.

@CP - something to bear in mind is the nature of JORC and Valmin Codes, both are a guiding set of principles meaning that in terms of building either a resource estimate or valuation:

1/ you have a selection of potential methodologies you can apply
2/ within the methodologies applied you make assumptions that can vary greatly from one team to another with their interpretation and purpose - i.e a corporation may have more stringent rules on being conservative and a junior more focused on building in as much upside as possible to attract funding but both estimates or valuations are essentially conforming to the codes despite being dissimilar and perhaps fairly wide in value etc.

- With the JORC Code, you can take the same drill data from the same ore body and applying Simple vs Ordinary Krigging as an example you then build your a model and assign predictability factors and assumptions based on personal and subjective experience and knowledge of what you think the density of drilling and data indicate overall for different zones of the ore body. In any mathematical model you can have a large variance based on the numbers you decide for a 'formula' vs having any one determined method and fixed value as a standard.
- Your resource estimate just needs to have met the 'standards' in how your team decided to make your assumptions. You need more drill data for where an ore body has more inconsistent and unpredictable variances in zones and less for more consistent areas such as say the E.Breccia zone appears to be and why GGP were able to use less drill data to make assumptions to feed into an MRE. I'm not an expert, just a general idea of process I am perhaps doing badly in explaining.

- Then for the Valmin Code to aid valuations you can pick a principle valuation method from say three common categories (market based, cost based and income based) that vary greatly and each suits an exploration, developmental or operational project/asset more than some of the others. You also need to back up your assumptions with a secondary method from memory.
- The valuation is itself split into different sections such as what can be more accurately assumed using resource estimates dependent on proven vs probable etc. perhaps and more 'rule of thumb' style methods for exploration upside etc. What you also do is assign a low, fair and high range for each section and and justify the value stated within one of the ranges you pick for each. Again, trying to explain something complicated in a couple of paragraphs is tough, but you can get different teams justifying a range of values that might differ greatly but are both 'correct' in principle.

That is why I think it is wise to wait and see what approach GGP should take based on whether we need to defend or downplay valuation if not a case of staying within JV. Publish something now and it could hamstring us in negotiations when we may have wished to pick an opposite approach.

I didn't make that argument CP, suggested optimal strategies to try and accomplish maximal leverage in the scenarios explored Vs drawing any absolute conclusion of each favouring one or other party ;-)

Good point Speedie, worth people paying attention to the comments around the mine plan and seeing where some time might be being taken to make certain decisions. It's the Newmont bid that has delayed release but at least the time is being wisely utilised for improvements to mining plan and an updated resource to be integrated, fingers crossed :-)

- yeah I think if you were in a mining area where you're only taking out Southeast Crescent which runs that you know 3.7 to 4 grams gold equivalent and you can achieve that three million ton run rate you're turning out around 400 000 ounces gold equivalent per annum
- now I think that's a zonation we're obviously going to Target I think we need to have the detailed mine plan to have that we have the working one in place what that tells you is we're also going to be especially on the south side of the dolerite, we're going to be actually taking out some of that Northern mine breccia as well
- if you've already developed the levels you're putting your mining polygon together and you can bring in some incremental ore even if it's only two grams you're probably going to take that as well

- so look I think where you end up coming out as an average mining rate between 350, 400 even 450 000 ounces per annum will really depend on that detailed mine plan but when you start with a you know 3.7 to 4 gram ore body at a three million tonne rate that's where you can kind of centre it you know a midpoint around that 400 000 ounces gold equivalent, but then I think it's I really do want to defer to that to that final mine plan as to how we optimize
- do we have periods where we're really just exclusively focused on that Southeast crescent or even higher-grade sections of it or do we have just this blended average where we maintain taking out some Northeast Crescent but it's a big mine, you know a 400 000 ounce mine is certainly top 10 inside Oz

I really don't think releasing an MRE now is the best way forward unless we get someone trying to buy us out, new potential investors looking in are probably waiting for both the Newmont bid to play out and also see what format the ASX listing takes and what Newmont decide to do if they buy Newcrest out with Havieron. Also, I'm not sure we'd see the SP react right now due to the above even if we did release an MRE, too much uncertainty around and fear in market too playing a factor with recent bank failures etc.

The other issue in releasing an independent MRE now is the need to play safe as with previous one we released and use similar conservative metrics and methodology to ensure a close match with anything Newcrest might release. Dangerous game to be releasing vastly different resource estimates as would shake faith in partnership but also the perception of JV widely that could damage investability in new and potential investor's eyes (both retail and institutional) IMO.

And what if we do get a chance to buy Havieron and telfer... do we want proof of what we think it's worth in black and white out there? Sure Newcrest or Newmont would probably then release a best case MRE update but at least you can combat it more effectively and downplay the assumptions and calcs vs having your own MRE used against you in negotiations. Valuations depend very much on official resource estimates as a base and as a buyer we'd want to downplay things surely?

Reverse is true as well if Newmont decide to buy Havieron outright and then we could release out own to push up the value while they would do their best to downplay value and no need to worry about conformity in methodology and metrics. But I do feel now is not the time to show cards for a probably very minimal effect to SP and also endanger achieving best outcomes in some possible scenarios.

As painful as it is at the moment, we need to see how the ground lies to make the best moves, a big indication will be if Newmont and Newcrest manage or not to strike a deal...

Freddie... It's time you learnt exactly who Acechaser is - the clue was when he tried taking the heat off himself by accusing me of being Shaun, a clever move by our cunning friend to throw me off the track ... but it backfired and got me thinking, so I decided to pursue another line of enquiry.

Guess who was nicknamed 'Ace' while at Uni studying his Geo degree?

That's right, say HELLO to Callum 'Acechaser' Baxter who became famous and earned this nickname for discovering an ability to sniff out Bismuth from over a mile away - show some respect when talking to Ace Freddo, you're dealing with GGP royalty!!!

End of the Oz financial year perhaps Z so how they structure contracted roles or perhaps as Hav not been officially green lit via DTM yet?

Has been noted by a few though.

LOL Freddo, just thought you could team up with CulPepper and do a Salt-N-Peppa tribute band :-)

I don't have any issues with you Culpepper but you inferred views held by certain folk are those usually held by rampers and were given the same treatment and inferred to as a deramper with your posting history...

No one prompted your posts this morning, you just piled in playing Judge Judy :-)