Member Info for Dip666

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/greatland_gold/news/rns_widget/story/wvz153x

So many stocks blew up in 2020 in the stock market bubble and we also had a great period for juniors where you could pick almost any and turn a profit, serious tailwinds that took us and many stocks far beyond true value, then since 2021 we've had sentiment shifting away from markets and the mining sector has been one of the most unloved.
It's MY job to enter and exit stocks or even the market as an investor to make best use of my money, no one else's and my opinions and research should be all I need if I intend to proactively invest in companies but always good to collaborate with decent folk. I usually favour macro and didn't here and so be it, plan B it is and we'll see how that works out. Need to stop focusing on what you might have done over the last 2 years and deal with the now and set a plan for yourself even if that means selling if not happy Manu and others who are blaming others.
All John was doing was slating other people, arguing and playing games as a sadist type does, he doesn't care about anything but his own ego and getting kicks off trolling, he wants to use your anger and fear. I don't recall him analysing the company once, all BS posts winding everyone up. Seriously, do you really think he was some hotshot high net worth trader... he is a scavenger living off scraps as he can't make the big kills himself by identifying great opportunities early, he literally detailed his process, although anyone can build a list, success is another thing entirely:-)

Funnily enough Zorba, the same theorising around an independent FS in the TG group earlier in that does SD 'know' something and planning for it specifically with the comment about releasing their own DFS. I feel personally is that there is a very high probability of NEM closing on NCM and seems to be a common view but then what NEM does with Hav/Telfer to me is a very open scenario which I have no strong opinion on, so were it me, I just plan for all outcomes.

My thoughts are that the team is keeping a framework and draft content constantly updated for an independent MRE and DFS as drill data and findings from optimisation studies keep coming in, also from what I understand GGP are seeing drafts of DFS for feedback hence they noticed lack of focus in tail end of last year. Having that draft DFS also eases building your own.

He said that they are acting as sole owners and ensuring they could release one in weeks themselves at the TH. I don't think that statement implies he knows for sure there will be a chance to buy Hav and Telfer, rather that they are planning for a potential scenario where they might have to.

Hi CP, fairly certain by 'Ring of Steel' Panama is referring to Wyloo being supportive and aligned with GGP and I love the clever and inventive play on words she uses to describe the relationship. I agree with P that a NEM/NCM deal is pretty much in the bag in that a huge desire to close is on both sides and sounds as if you too favour that outcome as things are playing out.

The real question in my mind right now is what happens if they do, unsure at which outcome is more likely presently but I do think that NEM will start to categorise whether an asset is in the 'retain', 'divest' or 'buy the partner out' pile during DD. And if they shove Telfer/Hav in the divest pile, I'm sure they are aware a very keen and able buyer is already lined up so we might see a quick turnover in that event :-)

Commercial value is underpinned by what you can prove mostly, Shaun and co. know that as well as NCM so will have factored into any strategy, the sense I got from Shaun was that a 'sensible deal' is doable and achievable for GGP with assistance from Wyloo who are supportive, Telfer and Hav seem very co-dependent for obvious reasons and will aid the case for a pragmatic approach and Shaun seems to think Newmont would be good to deal with from previous experiences.

Looking at the repercussions of a gap in ore at Telfer, caretaking or decommissioning costs, laying off 1200 staff and then trying to secure their services again when a global shortage in the industry is in play... very very damaging strategy to undertake for whomever might end up owning Telfer as GGP isn't as vulnerable as it was around Option Exercise. Cheaper to pay FMV IMO if they want all of Hav.

Well, NCM tried the bully approach and came out 2nd in the Option Exercise despite apparently while holding all the cards, if it's a case of monopoly vs chess again - my money is on the Chess team. Karmic payback playing out currently as NCM now find themselves with a pressing need to talk up assets inc. Havieron to gain a better deal from Newmont :-)

Hi guys, as TT posted from excerpt, Shaun was saying that he expects whether the deal goes ahead or not to be decided by some time in April and then he also stated during TH from my recollection that everything around a deal could be tied up in around 6 months due to previous Due Diligence on NCM a couple years ago by NEM, so this is more a continuance of DD and should lead to a quick resolution of the acquisition.

CP, Shaun said in theory that you can see a DTM and stoping without a DFS but if needed GGP can certainly push for a DFS to be published. And in terms of MRE's - should we need one - we can produce one any time ourselves, this has been proven.

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02643045-3A614769?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

Well you can Culpepper, read through the GGP MRE , very much reads as a comparative analysis to NCM'S in some regards. You assign value by interpreting data and fighting the case for your assumptions by critiquing the methodology and assumptions of your opponent surely.

When it came to the option exercise Newcrest wanted to base the foundations of value on the PFS, which is why they didn't update the MRE.

So GGP released their own and used it to push up the value.

That's what my conclusion was Speedy, the more proven up to JORC Standard categories an ore body is the more commercial value is assigned to it, you get less value attached for exploration potential and I could see it being evidenced in the valuation study I looked through to understand the process.

If we can make a play for the remainder of Hav, why push up the value for NCM or NEM by releasing our own MRE for now, let them get one out there and then we can pick through it critically looking to minimise assumptions vs fighting for value. Should we be selling our share of Hav then we release our own MRE and in negotiations talk up the assumptions while they talk them down as we did for the Option Exercise.

The Option Exercise was loaded against GGP with conservative price decks CP and god knows what other terms in JVA - but GGP still came out on top. If we'd lost that one, we'd have been toast in hindsight and last time I checked, we've added even more brainpower to the team. There won't be such restrictions next time and perhaps a more practical and sensible conversation will be undertaken between both parties.

To get to the original point, given that there may be a potential chance for a bid for Hav/Telfer - it makes sense to hold back on releasing an MRE or pushing for the DFS until we see how the bid works out. Shaun feels that he can protect GGP from a low bid and will see how the ground lies after Newmont bid.

We've both looked at what kind of technical DD*** goes on CP and a Valmin Valuation might be part of that process, certainly the methodologies explored in the code might form part of internal processes on both sides to ensure that a good deal from each perspective is being negotiated on any asset/s being sold.

And every move has a counter move of course. We're talking about how the current public perception of a lesser market value for Hav could potentially be used advantageously in a buying scenario by GGP. Newmont would no doubt look to counter this by perhaps releasing an MRE or DFS or they might just argue the value behind the scenes in negotiations to push up the price. Valmin Valuations are rarely made public from my understanding for instance.

***https://www.amcconsultants.com/experience/technical-due-diligence-mining-industry

@Cp - A lower value on Hav (not GGP) through the lack of an updated MRE and DFS will assist any buyer in obtaining a better price as drill data has to be interpreted and then fed into studies. Commercial value is assigned to meeting certain standards and categories.

The lower SP that results on GGP from a lower market perception of the value of Hav is a vulnerability of course and one Shaun touched upon in that Wyloo will assist in fighting off a low bid.

Here's my info. on understanding how/what forms valuations inc. breakdown and analysis.
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=132

@CP - NCM pushing a lower value on Hav through decision to not publish an MRE and DFS is feeding into a lower sp but the lower value could favour us in a buying scenario is what we both meant in our initial rushed posts.

I suggest you just.....
https://youtu.be/L0MK7qz13bU?t=127

@CP/Freddo, hope you get what was meant as we've both taken time to explain and clear up any misunderstanding.

No one was 'talking in code' CP, Panama knew she wouldn't need to spell her thoughts out in a long post for me to understand what she was thinking is all.

Probably helps to spell things out sometimes I guess Joubert as most of us quickly post something between what we should really be doing lol

@Freddie, that isn't what either of us meant, more so that Shaun is taking advantage of the actions NCM have taken to cause a low SP:

- the SP is where it is due to macro stuff and either dirty tactics or blind stupidity by NCM

- part of the reason for the SP being low is that NCM haven't published an updated MRE or released the DFS

- so all the market has is a very conservative PFS and a FMV from teh 5% option exercise which isn't fair when you research the process that was applied against the Valmin Code to price up Havieron. Trust me mate, I know as I really researched it and broke it all down and you know I've posted about this in some length.

- but now with Newmont potentially buying up NCM, there may come an opportunity for GGP to but Hav/Telfer (Outcome A), other side of the coin if we don't just remain in JV into production (Outcome B) is Newmont decide they want to buy our stake of Hav (Outcome C)

- With Outcome A, not having an updated MRE and DFS works for us as a buyer as publicly commercial value of Havieron is lower than reality when you consider how old the data is used for the PFS and existing MRE's

- With Outcome C, not so good if we're selling our 30% but GGP can release their own MRE to assist with valuations to fight off a low bid and Wyloo should assist too.

I do Panama and where you've got two very very willing partners who want to dance - a likely outcome is we see them tango and my money would be on a deal being agreed too :-)

@CP/Freddo, Neither of us is saying that Shaun is 'happy' with the SP or wants it this low. It's been a result of NCM's own decision to downplay Havieron since at least the Option Exercise and the fact the market had taken a downturn and knowing we had little money left they have been hoping to take advantage and snap us up cheap.

GGP pushed up the value in the 5% so NCM decided not to buy... an argument to be made it was to indicate to the market our valuation was overpriced and make it harder for GGP to fund - and then play White Knight.

So here we are, woefully underpriced and unfavored as are AIM juniors still BUT Shaun managed still got us funded without a DFS, he also managed to bring in Wyloo. He explained that Wyloo don't need a quick cash injection so will defend a low bid, they're more interested in the assets and long term ROI and very supportive of GGP in an acquisition scenario. When I questioned in Zoom Q&A what if we can't afford both assets are teh options via Wyloo, he ran the idea of a JV where they assist in our owning Hav outright and pick up Telfer themselves.

The advantage of the sly tactics by our loving JV partner is that Shaun can turn the current disadvanatge into an advantage as maybe without an updated MRE and DFS unpublished it helps to push the 'commercial value at X point in time' down for us as a buyer, certainly my understanding from the Valmin Code research.

So, no reason until the NEM/NCM deal get's decided on one way or another to publish our own MRE or force NCM to publish the DFS. This isn't going to help our SP though again Shaun stated that he thinks we're well protected with Wyloo looking for long term ROI vs a quick pay day. They're not your bulk standard investment company as I have pointed out a few times, they explore and develop their own assets, they're a good fit for GGP's own ambitions.

I bet it starts with a H! Fingers crossed those idiots have actually ended up doing us a favour Panama, definitely been some 'molly' doing the rounds in their board meetings or some 'Escobar powder', I know little about running a mining company but pretty sure what that lot have been doing is not the way :-)

@CP - I see what you're saying to a certain extent but remember GGP have all the drill date they do from my understanding and I was debating with someone on TG before the TH that GGP must be be keeping their own working drafts of an MRE and DFS as the understanding of the ore body and optimisation studies come in. GGP are peer reviewing the DFS too remember. Shaun said as much in the TH that the team is very much acting as full owners of the asset and could release a DFS of their own in weeks...

Hi CP - I'm talking more in strategical terms around factors such as releasing our own MRE before mid-Aug or pushing for a DFS release from our beloved JV partners. After all, he's not conducting a roadshow downplaying the geological and business potential of Hav to prospective investors, no doubt he'll explain the in's and out's of the present NCM/NEM situation delaying these and the options presented to GGP for each potential outcome, as he di in the TH.

Talking of the DFS, as he said last week, in theory yes you could end up stoping and a DTM without publishing one as the decision to mine has been taken already when you consider the spend and infrastructure build. But also he has said that we probably do need it and could push for it when the time comes if it's not released at an optimal period. But for now we know talks are progressing and the best thing surely is to wait, evaluate strategies, see how things work out and then make a move.

I think a dull monotone is the only tone Sherry has Panama lol

As Shaun said last week, very much suits us at the minute to downplay Hav as potential buyers of the whole shebang so let her be as muted as she wants now we know talks are progressing to the next stage, one step closer to finding out what the next play is for GGP :-)

Thanks to JC on TG for the link:

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.afr.com%2Fstreet-talk%2Fnewcrest-newmont-free-to-talk-after-progressing-nda-standstill-20230313-p5croj

@GG1 - And I suspect probably a better corporate setup to enable an easier acquisition of Hav/Telfer with Wyloo or perhaps a buyout by NEM if they decide they want our 30%... irrespective of those scenarios, it has the benefits you listed if we stay as is and go into production with NCM or NEM.

p.s thank you for the kind comments all and sry about all the typo's etc. in the transcript but YouTube spits out some horrendous transcripts that take ages to tidy up and wanted to get it out there than spend hours tidying up as so much text, also really enjoyed catching up with GG1, SaB and Noobz in person last week :-))