Member Info for Dip666

Thanks to Dot sharing in the TG group, advert for a new safety role at Hav ;-)

https://www.newcrest.com/careers/current-opportunities?job=983024

Lol Ace, I look forward to it and yep short of trains being cancelled again I am travelling up over lunch, want to watch the Q&A but will try and pop into pub before else catch u at the venue :-)

Lol Ace and yes hopefully the cake analogy helped get some heads around what Jerry has been explaining patiently ;-)

Planning to attend on Thursday so should see you there and convince you I am not Shaun!

I'd melt them down and pour them in Speedie :-))

I know Freddie - OMG will someone please tell GGPThru how you just fold and squeeze the paper shares and pound notes into a usb port... what is this, the middle ages?!

Ok own up someone... I thought we all agreed to stop bullying Freddo into buying more shares - 14000 more reasons to whinge :-(

@CP - wouldn't have thought NCM make a play for GGP unless they end up acquiring NCM and decide to retain Hav/Telfer. We'd be a post successful acquisition consideration only IMO.

For those reading that Wikipedia article posted by Matty, please be sure to also read one of its further reference links it contains to help understand what Jerry has been trying to explain and just Google for more info.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accretion/dilution_analysis

The concept of dilution to pay for wages and running expenses for a junior just drilling away hoping to make a discovery is so different from when you use equity and debt to purchase an asset (or share in) that increases your revenue and has commercial and intrinsic value that you add to your balance sheet.

In the first case your cake stays the same size and ends up in more slices, devaluing your slices in the company.

In the second case, the cake grows in size as you add the intrinsic value from the acquisition despite more slices in the cake and over time the increased revenues and growth optionality from Havieron would be all ours (and perhaps a partner if a JV with Wyloo etc.), further growing the size of the cake.

Need to see exact numbers from a potential deal Shaun could structure to evaluate properly but in essence hope the cake explanation helps...

In general terms in some acquisitions or mergers, a deal can appear dilutive at the beginning but the net effects through increased revenue in staged growth periods, overall value of the company growing etc. may turn it accretive in a short period of time - just talking in general terms as no idea what Shaun and co. might be able to build.

Everything will be clear IF an opportunity comes to light and a deal is then put in front of shareholders to be considered, plenty who can break it down and and no doubt Shaun would do so too in a presentation. We have a world class board who would be structuring the deal, not rank amateurs and any funds/banks involved will be utilising an ultra high degree of DD in an environment in which hardly a case of money being thrown around like confetti before considering involvement.

Also important to remember that GGP don't NEED the rest of Hav and Telfer - in time the company can generate plenty of organic and inorganic growth with the current strategy they have in place via the JV. If it turn outs that Newmont fail with a T/O and NCM retain Hav/Telfer then we stay on the original path we invested into in the first place - hardly an issue :-)

I understand the delay with the DFS in theory as with GGP funded off the PFS, there is time for optimisation studies being fed into the Hav DFS to aid ROI and profitability projections which all build a stronger case for a DTM and can combat the impact of inflation.

But the reluctance of NCM to commit more specifically to a date for release is a bit odd, they could give better guidance than they are which is actually damaging their brand and reputation - all while trying to obtain a better bid from Newmont? I feel very much that their tactics are of a corporation looking to incite a bidding war vs desperate to retain independence.

All very odd and as we're missing some key information to put the jigsaw puzzle together all we can do is wait to see if more information emerges to help work things out.

Unless GGP is already in talks for Hav/Telfer as NCM are considering selling (I'm not sure this is the case TBH) then the best thing Shaun can do is plan for both a potential acquisition opportunity or fending off a bid from either NCM/Newmont and see how the Newmont scenario plays out. Frankly I was happy with a nice clean run into production with NCM as I agree with bamps, we'd never get this information with another major like Newmont, Rio or Barrick but alas everything with GGP has to be dramatic it seems lol

Hi Jerry, more likely scenario probably would be a 3rd party trying to buy GGP and Wyloo playing the saviour, perhaps if Newmont make a play for GGP post a hypothetical NCM purchase.
As I said to CP, some are convinced Wyloo are out to grab GGP so I included it despite my thoughts they seem perfectly good partners at the present time, mind you NCM seemed so in 2020 and my own corporate and entrepreneurial experiences have been having to deal with Machiavellian complications :-)
I didn't want to be accused of only looking at rose tinted glasses scenario's - using the word 'hostile' was confusing on reflection so CP had a point as confused with 'hostile takeover'.

CP - just a POTENTIAL scenario, more one others have voiced as I've stated at present Wyloo seem very supportive,I'm running through all POTENTIAL scenarios - all with varying PROBABILITY based on one's own reasoning and predictions.

I think it's important to take a measured and balanced approach and consider everything (debate vs arguing) and we need a lot of things to click into place for GGP to get an opportunity for sole ownership of Hav/Telfer still when you think about it.

*On the one had we've had nothing put in front of us to consider yet as waiting to see if:
1a- Newmont buy NCM becoming a as one article stated $57bn monster and if so do they choose to strip Hav/Telfer?
1b- OR attempt to buy us out instead thinking they may be able to do what NCM were unable too?
2a - do we end up with no sale of NCM and going ahead as planned with NCM ?
2b - OR perhaps they choose to sell Hav/Telfer during negotiations with Newmont or after unsuccessful conclusion looking at optimising portfolio?

*Then given we end up in a scenario where we have a sale of Hav/Telfer proposed by NCM or Newmont:
1 - Will GGP be able to put together a debt/equity package where 100% is owned by GGP but with Wyloo probaly having a really large stake in GGP?
2 - OR do we end up perhaps as 50/50 partners (or some variable) joint owners with Wyloo and/or other partners but Wyloo own less of GGP so perhaps good to have them having less control on GGP as a major shareholder and GGP retain more independence?
3 - OR do Wyloo/Twiggy somehow manage to take us and the whole shebang for themselves (personally not seen any hostile signs from Wyloo but it's a potential scenario we can't ignore as completely impossible)

Also... I don't think it wise choosing to have an opinion of any potential M&A put in front of me as a shareholder until I know what the purchase price, ownership structure/percentage and details of debt/equity would be around any potential deal. IF something comes into reality I'll assess everything and make my mind up at the time based on actual numbers and facts and my own personal targets and timeframe for my investment here. We can all vote as we see fit using the voting power we paid for after all :-)

@CP , working with GGP in a more collaborative form has its advantages too for Wyloo with having a large holding with a company with a listing in AIM and ASX opening up avenues. IMO they have no need to turn hostile currently and they have a very long term strategical outlook for their company hence I think their investment in GGP is also longer term focused vs looking for a short term return and exit or indeed with preset intention of taking it over and going private.

On the matter of sole ownership of Hav/Telfer being out of reach financially in your opinion, if so then GGP could perhaps arrange debt/equity for a larger percentage of Hav and shared ownership in Telfer around a JV with Wyloo and/or other partners as an alternative. I'm sure all options are being considered and preliminary planning going ahead to assess viable routes in case NCM decide to optimise the portfolio and/or NM do if they succeed in acquiring NCM.

Hi Bablake, you sure it wasn't a news article a couple of days later summarising the RNS by Proactive... :-)

Dropped the transcript into the GGPChat forum :-)

Newmont Corporation (NEM) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=667

Taking on allies like Wyloo has its pros and cons and your scenario is possible but we needed the funding ASAP to stave off NCM, I think Wyloo will be more than happy to wait for an ASX listing and into production to assess GGP more fully. Waiting to see if Newmont manage to buy NCM and then what asset stripping they undertake makes so much sense for them too IMO, wait to see where the opportunities may come.

As I said on TG earlier, Newmont have all the skills in the world to appraise data and will see the potential in Havieron, in fact I think most industry experts are well aware it's another Telfer but corporate strategy is another thing entirely. ROI in accordance to their internal goals and policies will be key in appraising each project and we may see them dispose or retain assets that seems to make no sense to us on the surface.

They do CP and will end up increasing ownership if they fund future growth and if not them then other insto's as par for the course. As long as that large ownership position is aligned to retaining GGP as a vehicle to develop Havieron and perhaps in time other assets for long term returns vs giving away at a 30% premium to current M.Cap then all good in my book.

Thanks to JC on TG tracking down the transcript for Newmonts earnings call :-)

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fseekingalpha.com%2Farticle%2F4581386-newmont-corporation-nem-q4-2022-earnings-call-transcript

Worth noting with Wyloo Metals that they to date have seemed well aligned with GGP and that they don't just invest in companies, they also explore and develop mines themselves with a very strong focus on ESG which Havieron will lend itself to well being built as a modern mine from the outset vs legacy updating like an older asset.

For instance, they're developing a high-grade nickel-copper-platinum-palladium deposit located in the Ring of Fire region of Northern Ontario (Eagles Nest Project) through their wholly owned company Ring of Fire Metals. They do have a longer term focus than just being an investment company. Part of their stated strategy is growing the business through discovery of new resources and actively look to apply for new tenure and to partner with groups who have superior geological knowledge or access to land.