Member Info for Dip666

Not quite true Mumbo... you spent your time trying to pick brains of those of us studying the code and valuation techniques to work out what the value might be to probs make your mind up about a trade and then turned a bit hostile for the pushback some gave you.

Let me repeat some points communicated to you and others in the past after the price determination and conclusion of the option exercise when you were on the attack... I recall making it very clear during the exercise that my opinion was that it would be impossible for us to estimate an outcome accurately due to the expertise and experience required plus the points I will list below that we discussed at the time:

- this was not a true FMV exercise as there were very very restrictive numbers around certain parameters as asset prices
- ordinarily in a valuation exercise GGP would have been able to specify their own range of values in certain categories and provide the evidence to justify these ranges and why they then picked a low, mid or high price point for each category by using primary and secondary methods of valuation
- also let us not forget that NCM chose to forgo their usual MRE updates in order to keep the foundational base of calculations on a PFS that was itself very conservative and also very much out of date , we now understand that due to TSX regs NCM have some of their own limitations imposed on feasibility studies in what they can include in terms of resources and reserves, this will affect the upcoming DFS too
- GGP were able to put forward a good case despite the above by creating their own MRE, still keeping it conservative but by also incorporating drill data up to 5th of December, so within the 'point in time' of around mid December that all data had to be within for purposes of the option exercise and price determination.

That 5% price determination was also unfortunately for us not quite a FMV exercise as Shaun stated many times the negotiations were based on very prescriptive metrics such as around asset price decks BUT unfortunately it was a price discovery event and the general market isn't concerned about nuances around JVA limitations.

Some here were moaning about all the posts about the Valmin Code and different valuation methodologies but they'd have done well to actually spend time learning about these as we may well have another occasion that our future hinges on such matters... mind you - not like we're incapable of creating our own MRE and Valmin compliant valuations and coming on top in independent assessments despite JVA restrictions :-)

I'd like to see us pursue that ASX listing ASAP (which seems to be the case looking at the latest corporation presentation ) and have our biz development team earning their keep by bringing in the investment from insto interest on ASX to drive volume and push the SP up. A depressed share price might keep Dillon happy with his averaging down policy (just kidding bud!) but less useful if Newmont manage to close the Newcrest deal ( a big IF currently) and make a bid for us instead of being interested in selling to us. Current SP makes me wary of any potential bid being optimal for shareholders TBH.

NCM may be in a deal making bid if indeed behind closed doors the negotiations are more cordial than hostile than many are thinking, so why not throw in an option for NCM to dispose of their Paterson assets from us/Wyloo etc... just throw the option out there if they are considering streamlining the portfolio I mean... they've been oh so focused on the Amercia's of late publicly...

Chisler - the general understanding and what Callum also said was that an overall takeover or merger doesn't trigger a first right of refusal option, it would be if Newcrest looked to dispose of their 70 percent of Havieron in isolation and vice versa.

An entire takeover or merger just means the new entity inherits the ownership of 70% of Havieron and the JVA terms and should not trigger this option.

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=659
00:30:46:17 - 00:31:19:18
Liam
Which is, which is awesome. The… I just had a question and it absolutely just disappeared out of my mind then I'm not sure you even saw it go. No, I genuinely have gone completely blank, doesn’t happen very often.

So, when we've got a joint venture agreement like we do with Greatland Gold and Newcrest, is there ever any kind of planning that goes in in case parties change or anything like that? Is that sort of thing ever spoken about? I appreciate you may or may not be able to even speak about this kind of stuff, but just thought I'd ask that kind of question.

00:31:30:18 - 00:32:05:06
Callum
Yeah. So, in general terms, quite often when a joint venture agreement is put together, if one party wants to move on, then the other party has a right of first refusal. So for example, if Newcrest wanted to sell, let's say if Greatland wanted to sell its current proportion of Havieron to a third party. Yeah. Then Newcrest may have the ability to match the offer from the third party as of right of first refusal.

https://youtu.be/tyjDRNi0D58?t=1849

It works both ways Aqua...

Just as likely is as with all large mergers and takeovers that the new larger entity that emerges from the deal looks across it's portfolio and asset stripping takes place of assets in geo's or areas they wish to focus on less or are more longer term ROI such as Havieron still in development and then the SLOS mine financing over time bulk mining one zonation which in turn finances the next over a decade plus.

Many analysts have spoken about past M&A and consolidation periods which have resulted in new mid caps being formed from the resulting sales of mines and assets that the new entity wants to let go, this presents an opportunity for GGP in that instance. You could be right and Newmont turn their beady eye onto GGP, but I think it is very much an open playbook at this juncture - we don't even know if Newmont will be successful yet...

I'd watch the first 15 mins of the video*** I posted last night with Rick Clark's insights as he knows a few things about M&A in this sector. What if this is a more amicable approach behind doors, then we could see a less convoluted and confrontational approach with an upped offer and quicker resolution towards exclusivity and DD period and perhaps no need for NCM to publish new MRE's etc. I repeat - it is all an open playbook at mo - we need more data to make firm conclusions.

He also considers the fact that Newcrest might not be in a position to ask for much more whilst the SP reaction for Newmont means it may not be able to offer much more either. We need to be patient and see how this attempted deal plays out, this then creates the landscape for Shaun and co. to choose from the defensive or offensive plays they are no doubt building in the background.

***https://youtu.be/bGQ131hxcB0

Callum was theorising that Newmont MAY choose to consider purchasing GGP or our stake in Hav - not putting it forward as the most likely scenario in his opinion :-)

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=659
So, Newmont's just trying to get in front of that and I think it's great. Now if Newmont, Newmont, hang on, want to hang onto Telfer and the Paterson assets. That's fantastic. And potentially that want to buy Greatland’s or Greatland’s portion of Havieron in that process. So that's a win for Greatland. Alternatively, if Newcrest sorry, if Newmont don't want to pursue the Paterson assets and that's an unlikely scenario, but nonetheless I'd say Greatland would throw its hat in the ring to try and purchase those assets.

Well, a scenario is that Greatland would purchase those assets from Newmont and Telfer would become a central processing hub for Greatland and it would make Greatland a mid-tier gold and copper producer. So, a much larger entity which is again a win for Greatland. So really for Greatland, the scenario at the moment is win win.

https://youtu.be/tyjDRNi0D58?t=1751

Some interesting insights on the Newmont/Newcrest scenario in the first half of this interview.

https://youtu.be/bGQ131hxcB0
There is a $17bn MEGA GOLD MERGER in the works - The world's NUMBER ONE miner, Newmont, is bidding for the NUMBER FOUR Newcrest, our guest was responsible for $7bn himself and shares his insights.

Notes from GGPHelp Interview with Callum Baxter - 06 Feb 2023

Callum Baxter, Major Shareholder, and our Ex-Chief Executive Officer, and the finder of Havieron stopped by for a chat and a catch-up about all things Greatland Gold.

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=659

* 'New Month' = Newmount :-)

From what my understanding is around reading up and the interview, GGP will have the right to match any offer from a 3rd party if someone makes an offer just for NCM's 70% stake in Havieron and vice versa for NCM too from their perspective for our 30% of Havieron.
But this first right of refusal isn't triggered by a takeover or merger of the entire company by another party, in that eventuality it will be a simple transfer of NCM's 70% ownership to the new entity. New month may of course be open to stripping the asset in which case opens up an opportunity for us or perhaps they might express interest in our 30%.

Nothing stopping Barrick, Agnico or others from approaching NCM about buying single assets they might be interested in selling to strengthen their cash position and also cause disruption to Newmont's attempt vs attempting a full merger or T/O themselves... the genie is out of the lamp as such.

Is there any point to making a statement that effectively says nothing, any merger or T/O of NCM should just transfer the existing assets to the new entity and leave everything in place in terms of inheriting the terms in existing JV or farm-ins IMO unless a change of ownership says otherwise, but do think that would be pretty non-standard.

Sometimes the best thing to do is nothing and wait to see how the landscape shapes up i.e will NCM recommend the bid to shareholders, will there be a counter bid that might win NCM shareholders over more readily and then pick the best strategy, chaos as they say creates opportunities.

Also, importantly I think we need to appear to support our JV partner at this moment in time, perhaps as things click into place it will make more sense to openly put our needs first - early days yet :-)

Yep Panama, it was interesting as a lot of coverage on views from analysts and bankers on the approach in this one and looks like Agnico have been busy of late so Barrick possibly the main player for a counter offer. Do they make one now or risk waiting for NCM to decide to recommend to shareholders as perhaps exclusivity period kicks in immediately after?

20% is below the usual 30% T/O premium I read elsewhere so they have come in 'low' perhaps, hard to say really as many factors come into bids and mergers. And it seems bankers consider Barrick haven't been active enough and their current CEO not considered aggressive enough to pursue deals either.

Also with inflation as it has been, there is a school of thought that it's much cheaper than ever to buy production than develop projects it so does seems M&A opportunity given forecasts for the sector and asset prices picking up seems very key and now could be considered optimal hence Newmont have jumped in now...

Rational Assessor also pointed out to me that should Newmont/NCM enter exclusivity that nothing stopping GGP from approaching newmont and asking about a post deal with Telfer/Hav if they intend to strip what they might consider non-core assets (as per Daniel Morgan article) too.

More coverage from AFR

Newcrest investors say $24.4b bid is not enough

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.afr.com%2Fcompanies%2Fmining%2Fnewcrest-investors-say-24-4b-bid-is-not-enough-20230206-p5ci9j

This will help get around the paywall :-)

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2F8ca4f858-0807-4400-87e7-c5902d16225b

Hi Panama,

Much like a chess game, this game has just begun so a myriad of combinations still to play out but agree we have an able player in Shaun but there are levels to every game so hopefully it is the grandmasters we added to the board around the funding that are paying attention, Shaun still has a lot to learn from them and the other players are world class too, assume nothing and prepare for everything is the best policy at this juncture :-))

The corporate chessboard here has just got very convoluted as we could see other bids for Newcrest so might not be Newmont who comes ahead or indeed anyone although their major shareholders are prime for targeted schmoozing as not a massive premium, although could be seen as what is usually started with.
And we have no confirmation of other players such as Forrester\Wyloo and whether they would partner with us or go solo if they want to make a play, keep open minded and alert and also very wise as an investor to appraise all possible scenarios vs those we desire i.e. herd mentality, I am sure many of us have learnt some harsh lessons these last 2 years with GGP, best to keep grounded and rational IMO :-)

These rumours certainly look more substantiated than the other article and M&A amongst the majors has long been expected to become a major factor in the years ahead by industry analysts and the leaders themselves in interviews and opinion pieces. Shouldn't take too long for these to become substantiated officially if true.

But none of this will happen overnight if true as these kinds of deals are hammered out over long periods usually from my understanding and Telfer/Havieron will still present the same opportunity/issues in that Havieron needs to come online to to run it profitably and keep it operational so I find it reasonable to assume that any new owners will continue the development and operational plans to the current schedule of ASAP. Also, if true then NCM need to try and ensure that the DFS and MRE will be highlighting as much value as possible to assist with valuations in negotiations :-)

This link might work better:

https://www.ivoox.com/en/254-john-meyer-on-atlantic-lithium-kodal-minerals-audios-mp3_rf_102522243_1.html

And this 2nd post is considering the fear that GGP might be taken over at a low price, as time passes it gets harder for a potential hostile party with each drill assay giving GGP data that they can utilise to build updated resource and reserve estimates themselves:

When I looked into the valmin code and valuation methodologies, one thing was abundantly clear in that the more your ore body is able to be officially verified using JORC numbers vs just exploration potential from drill assays/EM etc. the more you can command and it is quite a marked difference.

Much the same way that most institutions need the numbers officially stamped and all permissions and permits in place alongside the DTM before they'll take a risk with GGP.

We're at a stage now that should anyone attempt a cheap takeover we have the ability to create our own JORC compliant MRE's to an excellent standard and be peer reviewed by the best in the industry. Shaun also has Grandmasters of corporate chess games on his board now guiding him.

And when it comes to buying Telfer, surely any buyer will wait for Havieron to be in or near production to ensure they don't make a purchase and then find some issues come up causing delays? Not sure about this as perhaps it is commonplace to buy planned mines while in development, but seems risky given the size and complexity of mine development...

This has been a big convo on TG too so just want to share a couple of long replies after having had a ponder during lunch looking at playing Devil's advocate, this first one is considerations a prospective buyer has to consider alongside NCM issues:

Anyone buying out NCM's share of Havieron is going to be concerned about processing via Telfer, so either Telfer is part and parcel of the deal or some assurance about NCM's plans there. Also, if not Twiggy then they have to consider being partnered with us or also approach us about buying out our share.

Also, anyone buying Telfer as I think RA has pointed out in past needs to also budget for decommissioning budget they have to have in place too I think (was that $5-600m or something, need to check.)

Presently, the only ore for the mill is via what is left in Telfer (unless they find more) and Havieron, it will be a while it seems before both trains can be run to full capacity so ROI has to be considered along those lines against purchase price, albeit if asset prices look very positive that may be less of a concern.

It is feasible NCM may exit Oz as so focused on America's the last few years but they have a lot of other considerations inc. what appear to be major shareholders continued lack of faith in the company, they need to appoint a permanent replacement for Sandeep and while Sherry has had an impressive career to date, she seems a bit young in her career to jump to CEO of NCM based on her previous experience so far IMO, so can understand the concerns.