Member Info for dickupham

128k shares were traded today (Weds). That's 64k buys and 64k sells, assuming no significant movement in long or short positions in MMs' books at the close, which wasn't evident from the 'trades' profile.

64k shares represents 0.19% of JOG's total shares in issue. Put another way, 99.81% of holders did nothing, yet saw the value of their holdings decline by just under 9% on a day there was no news and no external events that might have caused JOG to lose value.

Something smells rotten. Supply and demand doesn't really come into it where volumes are so small. I guess where banks are involved, a horrible stench comes with the territory. I seem to recall that about five MMs make a market in JOG's shares, although I'm not sure which ones: https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/documents/market-makers-authorised-primary-dealers.pdf

I hope they get rabies

dyor

JamesS - I hadn't seen your latest post when I made mine.

There's a lot of info on JOG's website that should help your understanding of what JOG is about:
https://www.jerseyoilandgas.com/

It's important to understand that risk can never be eliminated when investing in oil & gas cos - particularly junior explorers. JOG has for some time been at the stage of having convinced itself there's a great deal of accessible oil (and some gas) in the Greater Buchan Area (GBA) but they and we (as shareholders) are still waiting for tangible evidence that a much bigger player with the means to fund the project to first oil is prepared to sign a farm out agreement that will genuinely add shareholder value.

Hope it works out well for you

dyor

Hey, James - if you've done enough research to tell you JOG has raised c.£40m since it reversed into TRAP in 2015 and that the directors are well rewarded, given they haven't yet delivered for shareholders generally in SP terms, how come you don't know if JOG has any income? A bit odd, n'est pas?

I join karmakanix in hoping your new name works for you. In the meantime I hope you won't be offended if I apply the filter.

Au revoir

:-))

What reality would that be, Einstein? Yours or your fellow inmates in the asylum?

I think most people would place a higher value on Simon Thompson's well-researched take on JOG's situation (Investor's Chronicle late Feb) than the horse manure you produce by the bucketload.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/02/28/on-a-war-footing/

Just to correct a point made in the most recent post, shareholders don't have a right to know what's going on behind the scenes if providing them with the information they sought was likely to be potentially damaging. I agree it's very frustrating that it's taking this long to agree the best way forward with whichever organisation/s they're in discussions with, but it's a high stake game and there are any number of options.

We might still have to wait a while before an announcement is made. Best to switch off and let the children carry on with their small-beer trading

dyor

I see.

So it goes: "I wanted to reduce, so I bought some more".

Makes sense.

:-)

"I want to reduce as 10 times more in value now then the next highest value .
If I had a smaller position I would not be doing this........ .bought back for 316.4p 14.42pm and then sold for 327p 14.58pm"...........

.............begs the question: if you wanted to reduce, why did you buy back at 14.42pm.

It's called "trading". Lots of people do it, but not that many seem to feel the need to tell everyone when they make a small profit. Congratulations nonetheless. I was asleep (I enjoy a longish nap after lunch) so I missed the opportunity.

Curses. Maybe next time eh?.

:-)

........"fools jump in".........

.........one assumes you're now a holder then, JonnyB - welcome aboard

:-)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1gYJDQXPOk

Interesting find, Fj.

Don't know if you saw this in JOG's last GBA update last Nov:

"GBA Update

JOG is also pleased to provide an update regarding its ongoing GBA farm-out process as follows:

· We remain actively engaged with multiple counterparties, with discussions focusing not only on our Preferred Development Concept but also around alternative concepts using existing third-party infrastructure

· JOG has received expressions of interest from major infrastructure operators with respect to funding the proposed electrification of the GBA development and the potential regional collaboration opportunities that exist

· JOG is advancing regional electrification collaboration efforts with various industry parties in the Outer Moray Firth. There is the exciting potential for an integrated solution on power supply stemming from planned future offshore wind projects. This follows the recent announcement from Crown Estate Scotland detailing its plans to launch a leasing process that will enable the provision of low carbon electricity to power oil and gas installations to decarbonise the sector

· Potential collaboration with the owners of other oil discoveries in the vicinity of the GBA has also been accelerated to see if a wider joint development programme can be achieved"

https://www.investegate.co.uk/jersey-oil---38--gas-plc--jog-/rns/directorate-changes-and-gba-update/202111220700080479T/

dyor

Well said, God. And others too in some thoughtful posts this morning

Changing the subject, does anyone know how to contact the lovely Greta? Her advice is needed by leaders around the world. A follow-up to that G7 summit at which she told them all what they must do. Principles-free politicians - they'll do anything for the populist vote. GFY one and all.

Any thoughts on timing of a game-changing farm-out announcement here? The title "smartar5e" is up for grabs. I'll kick off with 22 May (halfway through Q2 and 6 months since the ex-Ithaca team came onboard).

Off topic, I'm told AB is a dab hand at making tea and doubles up with a bit of cleaning (he's showing great promise with the hoover, so I'm told).

:-)

..sorry, forgot - gfy mr contrarian

:-)

I reckon you'll be eating those words pdq, contrarian. And I'd go as far as to say that the most contrarian thing about you is that it would be contrary to common sense to listen to a word you say, because you haven't got a clue.

It is utterly irresponsible to steer people on a forum like this towards selling, without having any real understanding of what's going on behind the scenes and probably has been for some time. I might with some justification be perceived as bullish, but I always try to present a balanced views, based on information either delivered by the Company or capable of being interpreted, based on a reasonable understanding of the world of commerce, how companies are valued, the specifics of the industry and the vagaries of the market. Can you say the same?

My personal view is that news could be imminent. I hope I'm right, but I might well not be. But it's more than just a guess as I've again been going through everything that's been said and done to date and it's this that has led me to the conclusions I've reached. I don't say I'm right, it's just my opinion and I've been wrong many times before. I've also occasionally been right. Each individual should make up their own mind, not listen to clowns like you, or indeed me.

I intend to make one more top up (probably this afternoon) to round off my holding at a number I'll stick to until our fate is determined by an announcement I hope will be a game changer. It is illogical to imagine 172MMboe of relatively easily accessible light sweet crude remaining below the seabed in the GBA when there's a world shortage of oil (partly as a result of the lack of exploration for the last 8 years at least and partly because of the situation in the Ukraine. Britain has to move towards self sufficiency in light of what's presently going on and is likely to go on for a long time. JOG can more than do its bit to help in this regard.

Without doing him down (he doesn't deserve it) Vicary Gibbs might not have had all the skills needed to execute a pragmatic deal that provides a realistic outcome for JOG's shareholders. But you can bet your bottom dollar Les Thomas, Graham Forbes and Richard Smith DO have those skills and experience. Watch this space - they've been on the case for coming up 4 months and will have had a running start. I back them to succeed.

GLAL

"Generally speaking, oil with an API gravity between 40 and 45° commands the highest prices. Above 45°, the molecular chains become shorter and less valuable to refineries.[4]
Crude oil is classified as light, medium, or heavy according to its measured API gravity.
Light crude oil has an API gravity higher than 31.1° (i.e., less than 870 kg/m3)
Medium oil has an API gravity between 22.3 and 31.1° (i.e., 870 to 920 kg/m3)
Heavy crude oil has an API gravity below 22.3° (i.e., 920 to 1000 kg/m3)
Extra heavy oil has an API gravity below 10.0° (i.e., greater than 1000 kg/m3)
However, not all parties use the same grading.[5] The United States Geological Survey uses slightly different ranges.[6]
Crude oil with API gravity less than 10° is referred to as extra heavy oil or bitumen. Bitumen derived from oil sands deposits in Alberta, Canada, has an API gravity of around 8°. It can be diluted with lighter hydrocarbons to produce diluted bitumen, which has an API gravity of less than 22.3°, or further "upgraded" to an API gravity of 31 to 33° as synthetic crude.[7]"

Orca P2244: 79MMboe 2P reserves: 12°-17° API - heavy crude

GBA: 33º IPA - light sweet crude

Don't know if this makes any difference :-)

AB needs to get a deal signed, PC. He's had long enough.

Increased NAV (before discounting) of £35 a share, which the overnight BC increase implies, means Jack Squat if the market: a) doesn't think the oil is there and/or: b) JOG doesn't have the negotiating skills to get a deal away

One thing I know is that silence isn't the answer.

dyor

.............if anything in the lower half of my body worked I'd be trying to get her in the sack. I think she's lovely, just a bit impractical.

Sorry if I offended you JODO; I'm not very politically correct. Never have been. Seriously though, go easy on the cabbage - it can have lethal consequences

Cyril - to me it's not as much about the price JOG's oil would fetch if it came to the surface at a fully costed $32pb - $9pb of opex and $23pb of Capex (recovering the cost of investment to a farminee over the life of the relevant fields) as the positive feelings a strong oil price promotes in the sector. Oilcos seldom invest when the price of oil is low - it's far easier to make a case for investment when the industry mood is positive.

The apparent acceptance by Government that oil (preferably harvested in carbon neutral ways) will still be needed both in the UK and around the world, regardless of the righteous protestations of totally impractical and even more hypocritical jokers like the Swedish freak Thunberg (who i'd bet a lot has a higher carbon footprint than about a hundred normal adults, with all her international travel with methane coming out of her ar5e. Practice what you preach, Greta and throw away your iphone - it's 90% plastic dontyaknow?

It would be no surprise to learn in due course that, when it was announced this time last year that the farm-out process was finally underway, JOG discovered that a lot of explorers were operating with pared-back capex budgets as a result of the Brent Crude price falling off a cliff because of Covid19. This would have made the appetite for buying into a big project like GBA less attractive - if it was possible at all - to a lot of NS producers. Interest might well have been expressed by any number of companies, but getting them to sign on the dotted line on terms that adequately reflected the longer term value of JOG's resources was probably a very difficult task.

Those conditions are well behind us now. JOG has a proven and experienced team on the task of farm-out, so what's not to like? Confidence to make the investment needed to secure future reserves in enough volume to meet the demand now widely forecast to occur for decades to come has returned to the sector, as evidenced by the increasing frequency of NS deals done on terms favourable to the seller. With Brent Crude currently trading at the level it is - $110pb as I write - what reason is there to suppose that what JOG has available to share with a prospective partner/funder won't be the subject of competition to be the party chosen by JOG for the next part of its journey - assuming of course JOG's directors see becoming a full-on producer, with all the risks between farm-out and first oil and more on top because nothing is ever certain until the oil has been proven to flow as anticipated when the process started. HUR is a good example of what can happen in this regard.

A compromise might be an option. Sign-up a partner to secure the funding and sell out on FDP approval when, so I understand, JOG's (say) 86MMboe of 2C resources could be called "2P reserves". $12pb anyone? $1.02bn, or £750m - say £23ps? Most should regard this as fair. Risk gone - cash in the bank.

Work out your own poss scenarios. WDIK?

dyor

........PC - the emperor's clothes are made of the finest silk...........

Sorry, PC01 - I don't know the answer to your question. I've always made the assumption that JOG's 172MMboe of 2C (mostly) discovered resources includes any gas that might be recoverable. Not much has been made of it if there is any in Buchan and J2 whereas, in the case of the Cortina, Wengen and Verbier Deep prospects, gas seems to make up a significant part of the P50 prospective resources. It's all in the Feb 2021 presentation; you know - the one that said 2021 was going to be JOG's year. See p 22-24:
https://wp-jerseyoilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/02/02094652/Corporate-update-presentation-February-2021-Website.pdf

As an aside, I finally managed to get my head around the "relevance of the GBA resources to the Top 20 NS oil producers" on P10. Looks to me as if what JOG has to offer would be a good fit for quite a few, inc Ithaca, CNOOC, KNOC, Ineos and Repsol Sinopec. Don't know if they're all still interested in the NS or not. Repsol Sinopec has to be a long shot for obvious reasons!!

I did have a question for you PC, but I've forgotten what it was now. Maybe it will come back to me. I haven't been firing on all cylinders since Monday's jab - as evidenced by my inability to work a calculator when it came to how the market presently values Buchan & J2 (172MMboe) ignoring the prospectives. The answer is about 25p - or 34 cents - per barrel. Sheer lunacy, unless there's something I've been missing all along.

Hope we get some positive news soon. We don't need any more: "2022/23/24 (delete where not applicable) is the year of JOG" hype, thank you.

dyor

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/nations-agree-release-60m-barrels-oil-amid-russian-83182404

.........."60m barrels of oil are being released from their strategic reserves "to send a strong message to oil markets” that supplies won't fall short after the Russian invasion of Ukraine".

Brings into sharp focus the 172m 2C discovered resources presently owned by a tiny North Sea junior called Jersey Oil & Gas, with 33m shares in issue and a value of £44m attributed to its oil (discovered and prospective) by a market that seems to me to be badly confused as to what constitutes value.

The £44m I quote above is after yesterday's gains, assuming JOG still has £10m in the bank.

Go figure. It'll be too late when a deal has been signed. BC is $112.5 as I write: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil

Just my opinion fwiw. Always dyor