Member Info for dickupham

Ulan Bator actually. We haven't gone to bed yesterday yet in these parts. I'm on a rehabilitation course which includes the daily consumption of large volumes of wild Bactrian camels' testes (Camelus ferus bollocus) and Gobi bear faeces when they're available (CFBs are extremely rare; they're unique to the Gobi desert region). The idea is to reduce PSA, so here's hoping, eh? The testes are quite tasty if you keep your eyes closed before you start eating. Not so sure about the GB faeces.

I suspect I'm about to become a lot worse off on paper, but markets are fickle so one never knows. Do you think all the directors deserve to be voted in at the AGM?

Daniel Slater still likes JOG and keeps his 700p price target I see. Mind you, he would do as Arden is JOG's house broker.
https://research.arden-partners.com/portal/portal.html#

I've left the mythical bus station (on foot).

I get it re patience. My problem is with time. Del and Rodney come to mind.

GL

PS - forgot to say: I'm strapped in on the bus, ready for the off.

It has to be said that investing in oilcos has the capacity to make seemingly intelligent people appear foolish if events don't proceed as planned. People are involved in agreeing deals and shareholders are reliant on these people being smart enough to know that the right price to strike a deal at is one that leaves both side unhappy, one because he thinks he's paid too much and the other because he doesn't think he's been paid enough. Egos can come into it too.

In JOG's case (unless there's a lot of competition to be the chosen farminee/s) it knows it has to strike a deal - and the other side will know it too. So JOG won't necessarily be in the driving seat when it comes to detailed terms.

I'd always work on the premise: 75% (or whatever) of something is better than 100% of nothing.

Not saying any of the above will apply. faik JOG might be swamped with serious offers. Why not?

ii) JOG’s assets
The market has never attributed any significant value to JOG’s oil. It appears unwilling or unable to do so. As far as the market is concerned JOG’s oil doesn’t exist. Signing up a farm out partner (or maybe partners) would provide external validation (via due diligence done by serious potential farminee/s) of the oil in JOG’s relevant fields. Start with (say) $3pb for (say) 40% remaining in JOG’s ownership post farm out, add a bit for the prospects and you’re not far off Daniel Slater’s (Arden Ptrs) £7 per share. JOG will be looking for a significant carry on the infrastructure (whatever form it takes), back costs and a significant cash sum on top to avoid the need to go back to the market for cash a few months down the line.

iii) Why has it taken so long to sign up a FO partner?
JOG launched the farm out in March last year. Whether it realised it or not, the fact is that most oilcos were at that time working with capex budgets severely cut back after the oil price fell off a cliff when Covid took a grip. There might well have been a great deal of interest in what JOG had to offer, but I doubt it will have been supported by anything that made sense for JOG. Slowly, however, conditions in the industry improved and deals are back in fashion, with what JOG has to offer right there at the top in terms of size, location and quality. There’s no point in repeating why conditions are now so different to people who already know, but in JAB’s wildest dreams he surely couldn’t have ever imagined the favourable conditions JOG has been fortunate enough to be working in in recent times. But deals still don’t get signed “just like that”, which is what certain cerebrally challenged individuals seem to think is the case and should already have happened in JOG’s case. Brings us back to Dunning Kruger again. Dim people are too dim to realise how dim they are. They also make the most noise. TG for the filter.
A great deal of due diligence will have been done by seriously interested parties. Due diligence is complex and challenging work and it simply can’t be done quickly. Depending on the number of interested parties, there will have been multiple development solutions, with stand-alone and/or tie-back and/or fpso (new/repurposed) to be technically and commercially evaluated. This again is work that simply can’t be undertaken quickly. Serious potential farminees will have had to test all the work JOG has done on both existence and concept and consider whether maybe there’s a 'solution' that’s technically and commercially better. Then a proposal or proposals have to be made and these have to be evaluated. I am grateful to a fellow investor I am occasionally in contact with re JOG for his explanations about some of the technical content above. He helped me clarify my understanding of JOG’s overall position.

However certain anything might seem, there are never any guarantees. Oil can be dangerous to your wealth so please dyor

As it’s a while since there’s been any sensible debate about where we LTHs are and what to expect next, some might find it helpful if I outline some of the views I’ve formed about what I hope will soon happen. How soon is soon? I doubt JOG (AB in particular) would want to announce results and have to repeat “there’s huge interest – just you wait and see”. People aren’t up for that anymore, in the eyes of a lot of investors patience is one thing; JOG is another. He might not get re-elected at the next AGM if enough people are really fed up with the situation. I haven’t “lost the faith” so my hope is that great progress will have been made by the ex Ithaca team (and AB) and that one forthcoming RNS will cover two different subjects – one relating to the past and one to the future.
I am not seeking to justify anything done or not done by anyone. I am just trying to get a better fix on where we are and what to expect next, having been kept in the dark by JOG for the last 5 months and 6 days.

i) Background.
Oil is a complex business. Billions are involved and things happen in months and years, not days and weeks. For the benefit of the filtered twerp, whose investment strategy seems to be: “buy high, sell low”, it’s not like running a sweet shop. A new team (specifically appointed to do what they’ve done before – get a deal signed that stacks up in spades for shareholders) came together for the first time in Nov 2021. They’ll have inherited a strong position, with the groundwork complete and a number of counterparties in the data room, although none seemingly prepared to commit at that stage. It was decided RL should go (he “found” JOG’s oil and hatched the electrification concept – and not least appointed a very strong ‘oil’ team reporting to him). It doesn’t take Einstein to work out why his departure was presented in the way it was. I can’t throw any light on VG’s departure – I suspect it was just felt best to appoint someone with a proven track record in this particular field. Maybe it was a case of: “you take us all or you take none of us”. Les Thomas joined as a non-exec director in April last year. Now he’s chairman and has his two main ex-Ithaca men on board. They won’t have been sitting on their hands these past 5 months. Consider what’s happened in that time and the position of strength JOG is in now.

to be continued..............

flex - re "What’s your thoughts on the proposal of share buyback?"

I agree with NewK

Thanks, TheFD - I missed it too. The SP hit seems unjustified in the circs.

Not much discussion about the proposed share buy-back approval.

afish - I don't know any more than anyone else about timing but I'm happy to give my tuppence worth.

The 2021 results have to be announced soon. Voting papers for the AGM (I think 3 weeks notice has to be given?) will accompany the accounts. In the meantime, the new team will have been working hell for leather since late Nov 2021 to put together a farm out deal that underpins JOG's future and at last produces some of the value that lies in what are currently called 2C resources, but the market apparently thinks either don't exist or, if they do, JOG won't be able to land because of a lack of funding.

I'm far from certain the next RNS, which I'm assuming will be the 2021 results announcement, will also bring news we've been waiting for in regard to a farm out. We know the farm-out process was initiated in March 2021, but just think what happened thereafter. Uncertainty about the future of the whole industry almost immediately gathered break-neck speed, with politicians looking for cheap votes by openly siding with the unwashed climate protester brigade led by Greta Gertrude-Miggins of Sweden. COP26 (in Glasgow this time to add to our woes) then stopped everything dead for months as all kinds of talk did the rounds. Politicians previously regarded as at least partly sane even hinted they'd back proposals to shut down the NS altogether.

COP26 came and went and a sort of 'stand-off' then prevailed. It took Putin invading Ukraine to shock the dopes in Westminster into the realisation that instead of making life impossible for the O&G industry in the UK, it should do a U-turn and beg them to advance any plausible plans they had for NS E&D in an effort to steer Britain towards self-sufficiency in energy.

Where did/does this leave JOG? We were constantly told in the 8 months between farm-out launch and 22 Nov (when the ex-Ithaca senior team came aboard) that there was strong interest in the GBA. Probably true. The reality however, was that no firm proposals emerged - in all probability because the entire industry was surrounded by doubt. What responsible BoD would enter into an agreement involving the commitment of £billions planned to last 30 years, when there's no certainty the necessary permissions will be given for development?

Anyway, to cut to the chase, my guess is that a different 'quality of interest' will have come to the fore since it's become clear the price of oil and gas is likely to remain high for the foreseeable future. Even more important is the UK Gov's recognition that it needs to move quickly if UK energy needs are to be met (at semi-affordable prices) in decades to come. They haven't abandoned 'net zero' - just brought some sort of balance to the clean energy vs fossil fuel debate.

I'm guessing there are now some serious players in JOG's data room. How long it will take them to complete their work is up for debate - not long, would be my guess. Annual results late next week??

all imo/dyor

What they didn't tell the market (afaict on first reading):
1. How much cash has been generated in the 4 months since SQZ became entitled to 100% of BKR revenue
2. Why shareholder approval for a share buy-back scheme is sought when the directors don't plan to use it
3. Why they have chucked so much down the drain as a result of an over-cautious approach to hedging

They had a chance to stun the market but passed it up. Instead of a "jobs for the boys" approach to senior promotions, they would have been well advised imv to invest in a proven commodities/futures trader to minimise exposure to loss.

Underwhelming to say the least. I'll be very surprised if the market reacts positively. The share buy-back plan seems to me to be an admission they're out of ideas on what to do with (our) cash but sure as hell aren't going to pay it out to us any time soon. 9p? Why not 10p? Or indeed 20p?

3/10

jmofwiw

It's best not to respond to the troll under the thread headers he chooses - they're designed to promote uncertainty.

I see he's now moved on to Serica Energy SQZ), where the proceeds of his JOG sale should have bought him about 3 or 4k shares. People on that board own hundreds of thousands of shares each, as a result of backing up the truck in 2015 when the SP fell to 3p. I was a bit late on parade (distracted by TRAP/JOG?) and paid an average of 22p for the few hundred thousand I bought a bit later at 14p, 18p, 22p and 26p. Poor Jimmy's paid £4.20 a share for the pitifully few he could afford. No doubt he'll present himself as a savvy investor and a high-roller to boot. Walter Mitty eat your heart out, eh? :-)

There are some clever and very well researched posters on the SQZ board. They'll chew him up and spit him out. Should be fun watching.................

I'm responding under a different thread header to the "fund raise" post of 12.38 hrs. It's actually one word: "fundraise", just out of interest.

You're a small-minded individual who seems determined to do your best to minimise the gains of others who are twice what you'll ever be. They've generally worked for their money and aren't too chicken-livered to risk their hard-earned money in companies they know can't guarantee success but stand a decent chance of doing so based on their research or gut feel.

The following are all what chicken-livered people AREN'T:
"brave, courageous, daring, dauntless, doughty, fearless, gallant, greathearted, gutsy, hardy, heroic (also heroical), intrepid, lionhearted, stalwart, stout, stouthearted, valiant, valorous"

Shut up, Peter, will you?

Apologies, I should have made my thought clearer. The clearing banks do provide execution services to customers who want to use them, but I'd be surprised if Barclays Wealth Management and HSBC Private Bank were the vehicles used for this activity. HSBC Private Bank is probably the same outfit as HSBC James Capel (which was holding 3.64% last December - James Capel hasn't existed for decades).

Seems likely to me these two entities were holding on behalf of high net worth individuals - you know, the type bankers like to charge a lot for mediocre advice.
https://www.privatebanking.hsbc.com/investment-services/
https://www.barclays.co.uk/wealth-management/campaign/ready-to-talk/?gclsrc=aw.ds&gclid=CjwKCAjw6dmSBhBkEiwA_W-EoG0xXBlmU0Ah0rjELEoQNT9vCu-5QSZn-p5w8pRlbwRjgxdfbKeHSBoCp7oQAvD_BwE

My shares are with HL and AJ Bell

dyor

Seems likely to me Barclays & HSBC will be holding for individuals

PS.......so much for the troll's false suggestions about RL selling........

SIGNIFICANT SHAREHOLDERS 31/3/2022
Name Percent
Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Mgt 13.48%
Interactive Investor 6.68%
Mr J Baldwin 6.51%
Amati Global Investors 4.94%
A J Bell Stockbrokers 3.89%
Janus Henderson Investors 3.79%
Barclays Wealth Management 3.73%
HSBC Private Bank 3.55%
Quilter Cheviot Inv Mgt 3.51%
Halifax Share Dealings 3.50%
Ronald Lansdell 3.28%
SVM Asset Management 3.24%

****************************************
31/12/2021
Name Percent
Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Mgt 12.75%
Mr J Baldwin 6.51%
Interactive Investor 5.97%
Amati Global Investors 5.05%
Janus Henderson Investors 3.79%
HSBC James Capel 3.64%
SVM Asset Management 3.63%
Quilter Cheviot Inv Mgt 3.48%
Halifax Share Dealings 3.30%
Ronald Lansdell 3.28%
AJ Bell Stockbrokers 3.27%
Barclays Wealth Management 3.22%

Abatt - a major difference between Siccar and JOG is that JOG doesn't have 2P reserves, it has 2C resources. 2P reserves are valued at a lot more per barrel than 2C resources. I've picked up various snippets from various sources about the Ithaca/Siccar deal but have struggled to make meaningful comparison between the two. Siccar's total acquisition cost of $1.46bn seems to be made up of $1.1bn of assets, with the balance representing Siccar debt assumed by Ithaca. The deal is said to add 8k to 9.5k boepd to Ithaca's production.

Your guess is as good as mine as to the split of the 54mmboe of 2P reserves between producing reserves and non-producing reserves. Pre Covid, producing interests were typically changing hands in the NS at $15-20pb and 2P non-producing ones at $7-10pb. Why not do some "back of a fag packet" calcs (assuming what's been published by your source contains significant typos)? You could assume a composite value of $whatever pb , taking into account the fact that oil prices are a lot higher now than they were pre-Covid and the future of the NS seems now to be a lot more certain) for the 54mmboe of 2P and then add $whatever pb for the 470mmboe of 2C that gets you to the total consideration of $1.46bn. Let us know what you come up and give us your views on what this might make JOG worth. I found the heading of the linked article re Ithaca's upcoming IPO interesting:
"Ithaca Energy Buys North Sea Rival Siccar Point Ahead of IPO"
https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/ithaca-energy-buys-north-sea-rival-siccar-point-ahead-ipo-199656

Siccar's 2C resources will have had a value attributed to them by Ithaca. Whatever it was would probably give a clue as to the value of JOG's 160MMboe+ of 2C. Regardless, the value of JOG's 2C discovered resources will be significant. Certainly a lot more than £60 - 70m (JOG's present total value according to the market today), particularly when the promising prospective resources of 200mmboe+ are included. JOG has told us many times in various presentations over the last 3 or more what it and its advisers value it at, which is multiples of today's perceived value.

Is today's SP increase simply the result of Ardern Partner's update (which doesn't tell us anything new) or has the train finally now left the station? I added 15k shares at 10.40hrs today - got me an upgrade to first

dyor

Indeed Einbert - mea culpa. I'd read the note too but still got it wrong. In my defence, all anal-ysts are the same, so my mistake didn't make much difference.

I dispute your description of me as "the oracle". An oracle is a person or agency considered to provide wise and insightful counsel or prophetic predictions, most notably including precognition of the future, inspired by deities. Definitely not me as I never predict share prices.

£43 soon

The above is not intended to be taken seriously btw

DYOR

Interesting time for JOG's brokers, Ardern Partners (Brendan Long) to be producing a research note................

Forgot to say I doubt cash is much of an issue, with the bulk of the work on the concepts (32k man hours) spent before the equity raise of £16.6m (net) in March last year, which was added to what was left of the cash in hand at 31/12/20 of £5m.

If I had to estimate JOG's present situation I'd say there's £6-8m cash remaining, which should last comfortably enough to the end of the year. I wouldn't expect it to be an issue moving forward, because whatever deal is signed will probably call for a contribution towards back-costs from whoever is farming in. Maybe cash up front will also be a feature of any deal because JOG has no obvious other sources of income ahead of first oil in 2025/6 (at the earliest). There is no shortage of assets so this shouldn't present particular problems.

all imo
DYOR

Not long to go now. JOG announced full year's results on 6 May last year and the AGM followed in early June. Certain of the directors will be very keen to ensure shareholders aren't given any reason to vote against their re-election to office and the best way to avoid this is with positive news that causes the SP to turn sharply northwards.

This might be the last chance to make sure the coffers are filled with JOG's shares that presently reflect a value per barrel of its 170MMboe of GBA 33°API liquid gold that's less than 50 cents. Imagine the value that would be added to a mid-sized E&P's SP after discovering 170MMboe of the same quality as a result of an exploration drill in the CNS. All the work JOG has done since first acquiring the Buchan licences in 2019 would still be ahead of the mid-cap I allude to, but it wouldn't prevent the SP from rapidly heading north.

Conditions could hardly be more favourable for JOG and it's no surprise they're taking the time to make sure the deal most logical and intelligent people strongly believe is just around the corner is the best that can possibly be achieved.

Fill yer boots

DYOR

JamesSimon - bringing someone's health into a disagreement about matters relating to investing (as opposed to short term trading) is the lowest form of conduct it's possible to imagine. It is no secret that I was diagnosed in late 2020 with a particularly aggressive form of Prostate Cancer, which I have been fighting ever since. The PC was aggregated with a number of other serious ailments that have afflicted me for some years. That you find it appropriate to make sarcastic comments about all this says a lot more about you than does about me. Joke away - add a few more comments if you like - it's all fine by me because it amply defines the kind of person you are. Shallow and worthless - a person whose opinions aren't worth anything.

Just to set the record straight, I am up before 6am most mornings and my life doesn't revolve around 7am announcements made (or not made) by companies I hold shares in. I'm not the slightest bit concerned about the eventual outcome of the detailed negotiations that are no doubt going on between JOG's senior players and various counter-parties although, like many other LTHs I do get a bit impatient at times about the time it's taking to put a deal together that ensures a bright future for JOG and its shareholders.

I would not have invested in JOG if I'd doubted the competence and integrity of the founders (AB and RL). Neither has let me - or anyone else - down is any way since the outset and they've definitely delivered value as far as I'm concerned. I bought the majority of my shares at prices between 8p and about 25p before the Verbier farm-out to Statoil was announced in 2016.

Contrary to what you've stated, I don't have a problem with people having different views to mine. O&G is a notoriously risky sector to be invested in, particularly at the smallcap/AIM end of things. I wouldn't mind you - or anyone else - expressing doubts about JOG or anything to do with JOG if your posts showed any sign of being based on informed and intelligent research. The motives behind the lies you peddle about being a concerned shareholders are founded on dishonesty, your aim being to take money off genuine investors in whatever ways possible, no matter how dishonest or morally bankrupt - particularly the more nervous among them - by putting false and misleading information into the public domain. You're not even very good at what you do.

Given your apparent knowledge of my personal circumstances (your reference to PwC was a bit of a giveaway) it occurs to me you might be someone who lives in Jersey and at one time had a mighty holding of 30k shares before going all girly and selling for fear of losing money, only to return from time to time to try to spoil things for others. Pathetic.

You - and people like you - disgust me, as they would disgust anyone with a modicum of decency.