Member Info for dickupham

.............nil points........

Apologies - my crystal ball must be malfunctioning.

Disappointing.

Is anyone expecting a 7am RNS to explain what will be presented at the AGM later on in the morning? It will be difficult to get through the meeting saying nothing at all about 'the elephant in the room'. Nothing that's potentially price sensitive can be raised at a meeting that takes place during an open trading session.

Not sure what might be stated, if anything at all, but some form of update that's positive is not unreasonable to hope for (rather than "expect").

It would be so disappointing for the dozens of sellers in small volumes who kept the MMs supplied today and yesterday if a positive spin put on proceedings tomorrow morning resulted in a significant uplift in the SP. One can but hope.............

GLAL

Nubi...............the issue is what a (demonstrably unfair) windfall tax does to the perception of the North Sea as a good place to do business, by the oilcos that have difficult choices to make about where to invest shareholders funds in ways that produce predictable rewards.

Yet again we have politicians causing immeasurable damage to the economy by going for the popular vote. Less than 3 years ago oilcos, with BC falling to c.$20pb and staying low for some time, were on their knees. Where were the baying masses then - calling for windfall tax rebates to help oilcos offset their huge losses? Nowhere to be seen. Ditto from 2014 to 2016. Nowhere to be seen - funny, that..

Until events in Ukraine made them wake up to the reality of Europe being to a very unhealthy extent dependent on Russia for its oil & gas, a majority of UK politicians (and other European MPs) were opposed to all forms of carbon energy, in order to win cheap votes of the sort cast by supporters of the ridiculous Swedish freak who was skipping school lessons to lecture the sycophantic leaders of the G7 - you couldn't make it up).

It hasn't taken the Conservatives long to do a complete volte face, in a brazen attempt to divert the public gaze from the Sue Gray report and Sunek's unwelcome inclusion in the Sunday Times Rich List and sate the baying of the ignorant masses by punishing oilcos for making profits as a result of higher than usual oil prices (as I say, where was the baying to contribute to the same companies' losses when BC fell to $20pb and stayed low for a long time just 3 years ago. And what will the windfall be spent on? Increased benefits for the poorest 5m in the UK, much of the (so called) poverty either being over-exaggerated or self-inflicted. No-one in Government chooses to mention that oilcos are taxed in the UK at more than twice the rate all other companies are charged anyway (40% vs 19%). And this 40% after a reduktion not that long ago from the 62% imposed by Osborne that led to not a penny coming into the Treasury from Oilcos for 4 years, so little investment had been made in the UKCS (for obvious reasons) for so long (total oil tax was 60% under Brown). When JOG farmed Verbier out to Statoil in 2016, it was the first farm-out in the UKCS for more than 3 years. The OGA (now renamed the ETA ) was set up with the mission: "MER" - "maximise economic recovery". Seems that wasn't set to last long.

Analogy? Selling the machine that makes widgets that make profits for shareholders, with enough set aside to provide independence of supply for the Country in the future, with much of the money so raised given to people who have never saved a penny in their lives, or alternatively have undeclared sources of (usually) cash income but claim benefits anyway. It's best not to talk about the hordes of economic (predominantly) African immigrants flooding into the UK courtesy of Macron.

imv it's time Britain stopped rewarding failure.

all imoo

https://wp-jerseyoilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/04/Notice-of-AGM.pdf

One for you, three for us
One for you, three for us........

.........no, let's make that one for you four for us, shall we?

The greed of SQZ's directors has become notable. How about they lose a few hundred thousand shares and options for costing shareholders a fortune via their inept hedging strategy? I ask again, why was the former CFO made a director? Where exactly was he going at 70+ after 17 years in post as a relatively capable financial controller? The term: "jobs for the boys" comes to mind.

Dividends on vested options was the final straw for me - an utter disgrace.

Maybe a few holders voting against their reappointment at the forthcoming AGM might put a shot across their bows and rein in the greed to an extent at least. Ultimately options and LTIP awards have a cost to shareholders. They might be free to the snout-owners, but they're not to us.

As a general point, I have no problem at all with rewarding directors whose efforts lead to increased shareholder value and returns. It's not that clear what's really been achieved (that's down to the directors) since the BKR deals were signed 5 years+ ago now.

imo/dyor

It's difficult to understand why you're plucking figures out of the air and saying this or that would be acceptable to a lot of other investors, Abatt. Maybe the stress has got to you? You also appear to have mixed up UK£ with US$.

On any positive announcement, JOG's SP will probably be marked up immediately and significantly, then be all over the place for a while, as a result of frenzied buying and selling, with some holders selling at below real value to satisfy (or part satisfy) demand, probably because they're focused on price and not value, which they don't know how to work out anyway. As Warren Buffett pointed out: "price is what you pay, value is what you get". Buyers and sellers alike will be milked for all they're worth by crooked MMs - for a while at least. What range the price will finally settle in is anyone's guess, as is the length of time it will stay at around that sort of level, before the boredom factor sets in or the MMs start dicking around with the daily price to generate volume.

In general, the key to successful investing is to buy shares in companies you (correctly) identify as undervalued, then hold until the fundamentals play out. The time to sell is when there is no perceptible difference between price and value and the outlook doesn't look that inspiring. All just my take on the situation and doesn't mean a lot except to me. The shares I bought at 8.79p in Feb 2016 aren't looking too bad as things stand :-)

There will always be a time to take shares off the table, but why do so if (i) you don't need to, (ii) it isn't obvious where better to invest the money and (iii) the fundamentals suggest there's still a long way to go on JOG's journey. You won't make much progress if you take any notice of what posters like JS have to say. His strategy appears to be "buy high, sell low", judging by what he's told us of his previous exploits in JOG, as amplified by supposedly recently selling the latter at a loss to buy into SQZ, when it was at a record high (it's currently trading 20% lower, although most seem to think it will soon recover).

What I posted about Dunning Kruger (which I don't expect you to understand JS) was deadly serious. Nothing I wrote can be said to have been a 'pun', which is "a joke exploiting the different possible meanings of a word or the fact that there are words which sound alike but have different meanings".

GLAL - I'll be on the sidelines for while as there isn't a lot to discuss. My views are well known to most anyway.

dyor

Ref JS's latest sage comments: "Dunning-Kruger effect: in psychology, a cognitive bias whereby people with limited knowledge or competence in a given intellectual or social domain greatly overestimate their own knowledge or competence in that domain relative to objective criteria or to the performance of their peers or of people in general".
https://www.britannica.com/science/Dunning-Kruger-effect.

To put the comments in context, a m/c of £600m (as predicted by JS) on a farm out announcement would produce a SP of close to £18.50ps. This would value JOG's likely remaining 2C resources, post farm out, of (say) 40mmboe, at about $18 pb. Half that number would be more realistic imo, depending of course on the terms of the farm out. The real value (for those prepared to wait) is likely to come when production gets underway from 2025 onwards.

Hope you're right re timing, dusterinmong. My thoughts are that it might take another month or so but I'm just guessing

all imo only
always dyor

What a slamming. Shares down nearly 12% on the day.

The Company HAS to say something.

Greener101 - Les Thomas was appointed a NED of JOG on 13 April 2021. Not long after coming on board (10 May 2021) he bought 25,000 JOG shares in the market @ 159.25p per share (cost c.£40k). As you say, he bought a further 8k shares @ £267.5p last week (5 May 2022 - cost £21k . No-one forced him to buy these shares, so the inference is that either he enjoys chucking money away, or he sees JOG shares as a sound 'buy'. He will know a lot more than any of us about what's presently going on and this, to me, is a ringing endorsement of JOG.

Needless to say, the market chooses to take a short term negative view (aided and abetted by crooked MMs who are supposed to make a fair market in JOG shares but generally imo don't) on a day like today, as it has a habit of doing because it is at least partly made up of two-bit chancers who haven't got a clue what's likely to be going on behind the scenes and wouldn't be able to understand it (and its likely implications) or indeed care if they did. We can but hope that enough potential investors get to find out when a bigger partner/s comes onboard via a £multi-billion farm out deal and will want to buy into the potential (more like actual) when it happens.

Going back to Les Thomas, during the period between 13 April 2021, when he joined as a non-exec director, and 22 Nov 2021, logic suggests he must have advised JAB (and maybe selected others on the board) what action he believed was necessary to get the right sort of deal across the line within a finite timescale. The action JAB took, of course, included the recruitment of LT's two most trusted former colleagues at Ithaca, which was sold to Delek Group in 2017 for c.$1.24bn inc debt: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ithaca-energy-m-a-delek-group-idUSKBN15L0QO

It was mooted at the time - and again in 2019 - that Delek was considering an IPO of Ithaca and this subject rumbles on.
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/delek-gets-250m-offer-for-ithaca-shares-and-og-marketing-rights/

One can speculate until the cows come home about how all or any of this might affect JOG (or not) and reach all kinds of different conclusions as to likely outcome. What isn't up for debate, however, is that that there's no team that's more likely to know what might be of interest to Delek/Ithaca than the 3 ex-Ithaca people on JOG's payroll now. Ithaca is one of JOG's nearer neighbours via its interest in Captain (c.120km).

Ithaca IPO to raise the funds to farm into (or buy) JOG, anyone????

All just food for thought. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HblPucwN-m0

Patience..........

dyor

Einbert - I hadn't previously appreciated the depth of experience you have in the industry. I'm certainly not going to pick a fight with someone who can probably tell the difference between Castrol and Shell without even glancing at the label.
Early August it is then (at the latest). Let's hope it's sooner.

There's no saying you'll turn out to be wrong, chessman. My views reflect the age-old triumph of hope over experience, so the odds could be in your favour.

GLAL

Thanks, Einbert. I'm glad we're on the same page. As a lowly former bookkeeper, I'm never quite sure how these things work - about how anything works, in fact.

Are you saying you think 1-3 months is a realistic timescale to put a deal together?

My words haven't proved to be wise yet, abatt - hold onto those horses.

The way I see things progressing from here, on the assumption there are a number of parties in the data room, would be for JOG to set a final date by which proposals are to be submitted for consideration. Thereupon, the process of evaluating the bids can begin, which won't be a straightforward task and is bound to take time. The proposals will involve the commitment of at least 9 figure £ (possibly10) over a 30 year period, so there's a great deal at stake for all concerned.

Re today's RNS, JOG seems to have taken advantage of an open period (following the publication of JOG's annual results) to incentivise the directors and certain employees by issuing "at the money" options. Three of the directors have then chosen to add to their positions by purchasing shares in the market, as set out in today's announcement

All good news as far as I can tell. I don't think we're given much of a steer re timing of a farm out announcement - if events follow the order I've speculated on above. I doubt any firm farm out proposals (or maybe alternative offers) have been submitted to date because, had there been such submission/s, the directors would have been in possession of price-sensitive information not in the public domain.

I'm guessing 1-3 months for a deal to be struck.

dyor

Dive Centre - if you click the link to 'NSTA press release' you'll see that all this dates back to 2018. This was the period leading up to JOG becoming the successful bidder for the relevant licences, announced in July 2019. Since then, JOG has completed a mountain of work (all comprehensively documented) leading to the situation it finds itself in today.

Moving forward to where was are today, I wouldn't be at all surprised if there were 3 or 4 different "counterparties" all competing to be JOG's preferred partner in the run up to first oil and beyond. There was a new level of confidence evident to me in the recent update and the way the various analysts were briefed ahead of the release, all promoting the same basic message: "this is happening and it's only a matter of time". It implied a different level of professionalism that presumably arrived with the new members of the senior team, recruited last November to complete what others before them had failed to achieve. In the circumstances, I found the relative number of options issued to individual board members a bit difficult to understand. Issuing options to non-execs is a no-no in my book, although a case could easily be made to support the new chairman's award, as it seems reasonably clear he was instrumental in persuading his former colleagues at Ithaca to lend their expertise and experience to JOG.

Don't miss the bus

GL

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJOjTNuuEVw

I'd like to know what happened to the windfall tax rebates that (using the same argument) should have flowed our way when O&G prices fell off a cliff in 2019/20 when Covid came along.

How far should I go back?? 2015/16 anyone?

Bloody socialists. As Margaret Thatcher pointed out back in the day: "socialism is ok until you run out of other people's money".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

30 April 2022
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1072674/20220430_SoS_to_OG.pdf

MPO818 - in case I should forget tomorrow, this is just to wish you 'bon voyage'. Hope you'll both enjoy the holiday of a lifetime and that when you return you'll be a lot wealthier than you were before you set off.

No hoovering or ironing for a month. How I envy your good fortune................ :-)

atb

Dick

It's Ulan Bator (or "Ulaanbaatar") and yes, you can get HP sauce here. But it negates the effect of the balls and faeces consumed during the rehabilitation programme. They have to be consumed "neat".

I've become quite used to being fed bulls.hit, so it's a small hop to what I'm required to eat now.

I'm relaxed about the situation btw. It's not dissimilar to the one I outlined in last night's post. I expect it will take a few more weeks to put a decent deal together and get it signed but that's probably par for the course. What puzzled me was the comment in the RNS: " In addition to contingent oil resources of in excess of 100mmbbls in the planned first phase development of the Greater Buchan Area, our shareholders have ownership of significant resource upside from further development phases and the drill-ready exploration prospects that are proximal to the core project".

I'd have thought "in excess of 150mmbbls would have been more appropriate. Has someone misplaced 68mmbbls?