Member Info for dickupham

Greener - I'm still fully invested in JOG. If I had serious doubts about the integrity of management, I would have reduced my holding accordingly. Having the ex-Ithaca team onboard gives added confidence, as do present industry fundamentals, subject to our cowardly government throwing spanners in the works with their utterly clueless crowd-pleasing acts of sabotage on an industry that's vital for the nation's well-being and security.

Ref Reabold Resources, I'm always pleased to learn of events that support the notion that minority investors in listed companies do at least have some ability to protect their positions in extreme situations. I don't propose to do anything other than lend whatever support I can to JOG's cause(for instance by expressing balanced and (hopefully) well researched views on platforms like this). There might come a time, however, when words alone are not enough. In general I prefer action to talking about it incessantly.

Les Thomas has been onboard for 18 months now. The NKOTB (ex Ithaca) will have completed a year's service on 22 November. . A year is a long time to me in present circumstances.

dyor

..............."Linda Z Cook, Chief Executive Officer, commented:

"Harbour is delivering operationally with higher production volumes and lower costs, supported by improved efficiency and our capital investment programme. We also remain focused on reducing our own greenhouse gas emissions and advancing our two UK CCS opportunities, Harbour-led Viking CCS in England and Acorn in Scotland. Our company is proud to be the UK's largest oil and gas producer and, through the combination of these activities, contributing meaningfully to domestic energy security while at the same time working to help realise a shared ambition of UK leadership in CO2 capture and storage.

However, the recently enacted UK Energy Profits Levy (EPL) and speculation about further fiscal changes have created uncertainty for independent oil and gas companies like Harbour. As a result, evaluating expected returns from long term investments has become more difficult and investors are advocating for geographic diversification.

While we fully recognise the significant challenge in the UK to put public finances on a sustainable footing, we urge the government to carefully consider the consequences of any increase in or extension of the EPL. At a time when oil and gas producers are being asked to invest more to help ensure the UK's energy security and are considering longer term, material investments in CCS, additional taxes would run the risk of undermining our ability to do either."
https://www.investegate.co.uk/harbour-energy-plc--hbr-/rns/trading-and-operations-update/202211030700071461F/

.........lets hope the pathetic weaklings in government start listening to the industry. The same applies to the even more left wing t.wats in opposition (although the prospect of anything other than utter carnage when they get in in 2024 is remote).

Might be time to consider emigrating to one of the countries that are now virtually empty because their populations have decided they like the sound of life in a hotel in the UK and have moved here en bloc?

dyor

..............."Linda Z Cook, Chief Executive Officer, commented:

"Harbour is delivering operationally with higher production volumes and lower costs, supported by improved efficiency and our capital investment programme. We also remain focused on reducing our own greenhouse gas emissions and advancing our two UK CCS opportunities, Harbour-led Viking CCS in England and Acorn in Scotland. Our company is proud to be the UK's largest oil and gas producer and, through the combination of these activities, contributing meaningfully to domestic energy security while at the same time working to help realise a shared ambition of UK leadership in CO2 capture and storage.

However, the recently enacted UK Energy Profits Levy (EPL) and speculation about further fiscal changes have created uncertainty for independent oil and gas companies like Harbour. As a result, evaluating expected returns from long term investments has become more difficult and investors are advocating for geographic diversification.

While we fully recognise the significant challenge in the UK to put public finances on a sustainable footing, we urge the government to carefully consider the consequences of any increase in or extension of the EPL. At a time when oil and gas producers are being asked to invest more to help ensure the UK's energy security and are considering longer term, material investments in CCS, additional taxes would run the risk of undermining our ability to do either."
https://www.investegate.co.uk/harbour-energy-plc--hbr-/rns/trading-and-operations-update/202211030700071461F/

.........lets hope the pathetic weaklings in government start listening to the industry. The same applies to the even more left wing t.wats in opposition (although the prospect of anything other than utter carnage when they get in in 2024 is remote).

Might be time to consider emigrating to one of the countries that are now virtually empty because their populations have decided they like the sound of life in a hotel in the UK and have moved here en bloc? The weather's likely to be better........

dyor

....apologies, posted the wrong link - the one below was the intended one. I can't comment on the truth or fairness of what's being alleged but find it interesting that a very limited number of shareholders - if they're so inclined - can make waves if they are sufficiently motivated to do so.
https://www.investegate.co.uk/reabold-reqstn.shldr/rns/requisition-of-gm-of-reabold-resources-plc/202211010700098189E/

dyor

Good morning, afish. I can't offer any response to your Fri post that would be meaningful. October has come and gone and (theoretically at least) we should now be expecting news of a successful farm out (or possibly an outright offer) at any time. But 'wolf' has been cried a few times before so I'm concentrating on other things, rather than wishing my life away waiting for certain people to back up their words with action, instead of yet more talk about how much interest there is in what JOG has to offer. Show me the money.

A couple of interesting recent articles for you to ponder, just for general interest. Even the Socialist Times doesn't appear to support further WFTs:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/75fa547c-5863-11ed-962f-53da0c787308?shareToken=2044534fecd3f1ba8beee61bed27a351

https://www.investegate.co.uk/reabold-resources--rbd-/rns/requisition-of-general-meeting/202210200700044821D/

dyor

.............might be sending shivers down the backs of a good few well-remunerated directors across the land?...............

https://www.investegate.co.uk/reabold-reqstn.shldr/rns/requisition-of-gm-of-reabold-resources-plc/202211010700098189E/

..............

.............."Great progress is being made with our GBA farm-out process - the key activity for the Group in 2022. Interest is strong, technical studies across the various development solutions are well advanced and commercial discussions are ongoing with serious, well-funded counterparties. Since launching the process, the Company's engagement strategy has been broadened to advance a range of competing development solutions, thereby providing increased optionality."

Note: 2022, not 2023.
https://www.investegate.co.uk/jersey-oil---38--gas-plc--jog-/rns/interim-results/202209220700122293A/

dyor

The more imaginative among you might find the linked info interesting:
https://www.investegate.co.uk/ithaca-energy-inc/rns/expected-intention-to-float---replacement/202210180736392319D/

Not sure if Ithaca's existing infrastructure (Britannia and Captain) might offer tie-back possibilities? Anyone with a relevant background care to comment? Would your forecourt cousin's knowledge extend this far, Einbert?

See Ps 7 & 8 of linked presentation of Feb 21.
https://wp-jerseyoilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/02/02094652/Corporate-update-presentation-February-2021-Website.pdf

dyor

............up he comes...........like a rat out of a sewer.......

dyor

......." I think their only sensible option would be to merge with someone like HBR"...........

.........some might say that's the only sensible option anyway

:-)

MPO818 - can't really add what alsoppc has written.

Thanks to you and others for the good wishes. I'm still hoping for a decent outcome...........

PC - you don't appear to have taken into account the fact that a lot of the CAPEX included in the $30pb (cost of extraction) you refer to will disappear on a farm-out. The OPEX element, from memory is forecast to be around $10pb, so the margin available to JOG on going into production are that much higher.

At a projected production flow of 40k barrels per day, JOG's share will end up yielding some incredible returns.

All in the future of course, dyor, blah,blah etc. Patience looks set to win the really big numbers - the interim uplift on FO announcement should only be the start if the directors do their stuff

Back to sleep now.

RWT2 - why not go back on this site and read the contributions made by various people, including myself? Should tell you all you need to know. It's a bit rich asking others to summarise research every investor should do for himself. Yolu'll end up in a much stronger position if you form your own views based on research you've carried out yourself.

You can start by reading what JOG has put up on its website - also the RNSs it has put out since the outset in 2015. Just enter "JOG" in the search box and magic will happen:
https://www.investegate.co.uk/Index.aspx?searchtype=-1&words=0

https://www.jerseyoilandgas.com/

Good luck whatever you decide.

DYOR

Not sure if this has already been posted - forgive me if it has:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/tax-people-this-room-help-poor-shell-ceo-tells-energy-conference-2022-10-04/

The word "cynical" comes to mind. Seems as if he's keen for the smaller companies focusing mainly, or only, on the UKCS to go out of business. First BP now Shell. Both Looney (by name and by nature) and van Beurden should be sacked imv.

Ref the discussions a couple of days ago about SQZ possibly being interested in JOG, I wouldn't rule it out completely. JOG has referred on a few occasions to the possibility of farming out the GBA licences to more than one party. It's possible a big player might be interested in a (say) 50% stake as operator, in return for a cash contribution and partial carry, with a smaller, cash rich, entity to provide a further carry and maybe a chunk of cash for , say, 25% of the action, to avoid the need for JOG to go back to the market for cash to see it through to first oil in 2026. SQZ might fit the bill re the latter - Flegg has said on more than one occasion that he'd like to strike a better balance between gas and oil production.

Just idle speculation on my part - I'm probably miles out

DYOR

Morning PC and everyone else. Haven't been posting much of late as medical matters have kept me busy in ways I'd prefer to have avoided (a fair bit of my time these past few months has been spent asleep on a recliner, where I can at least find some physical comfort). I reckon it's payback for my sins of the past.

The purpose of this post is to say that, for once, I reckon I might be even more optimistic than you in regard to what happens next and when, PC. AB's & LT's last update, when taken with previous announcements on the subject, suggested to me that a deal is probably now closer than ever, given the update was on 22/09. AB & LT spoke of due diligence being completed by interested parties in October (not necessarily the end of Oct). Other relevant comments included:
* "Interest is strong, technical studies across the various development solutions are well advanced and commercial discussions are ongoing with serious, well-funded counterparties. Since launching the process, the Company's engagement strategy has been broadened to advance a range of competing development solutions, thereby providing increased optionality."
* "Substantial progress has been made, with the majority of interested parties forecast to complete their technical due diligence in October 2022"
* "Favourable fiscal and macroeconomic developments have further bolstered interest in our on-going "Greater Buchan Area" ("GBA") farm-out process"...............................
* "Substantial progress has been made, with the majority of interested parties forecast to complete their technical due diligence in October 2022".

There has to be a distinct possibility that more than one partner is eventually signed up, with perhaps a major (or at least a substantial force in the industry) taking up - say - 50%, with a cash-rich smaller entity signing up for 25%, leaving JOG with 25% - but with a wad of cash and a more or less free carry on future development spend.

All the above is just speculation on my part. It would be difficult to see JOG retaining the role of operator in the circumstances I envisage, but I wouldn't regard only holding onto, say, 25% as negative, given the volume of oil we're talking about.

As for the SP, there will always be those who look only at price and not prospects, so there's no certainty the "spike" of the past few days will hold. But the price does seem set to increase substantially on news that surely can't be far away now. It could come at any time. I've claimed my seat on the bus and am looking forward to experiencing the G force associated with fast forward propulsion - perhaps sooner than some expect.

Thanks for your concise offerings on the wisdom of investing in JOG at this time, x54v. They sum up the situation nicely.

All imo. DYOR.

GLAL

Using P/E to value oil & gas cos isn't really appropriate imv. There are too many variables involved, the most relevant of which is the remaining life of the relevant fields and anticipated future flow rates. Fields in the course of development also complicate the picture.

To me - and particularly in Serica's case, given the structure of its B/S - a better way to measure relative value is the use of "payback" - how long would it take for a potential buyer of the company to recover his/her/its outlay. A buyer of the company at today's market cap (£950m) would gain an immediate cash payback of around £600m (assuming a deal would take until the year end to complete). The remaining £350m would be recovered within 12 months, assuming gas prices don't collapse.

On a different subject, a share buy back programme is not a route that makes much sense to me, unless Flegg and Craven Walker have as their objective to chuck shareholders' money off a cliff. The theory of it all is fine (fewer shares in isuue therefore each share is worth more) but the market rarely, if ever, takes this into account. "The share price is the share price" is the approach it adopts. "Price" is everything to those who set (I nearly said "fix") the share price, which is largely the "don't knows" - those who account for most of the volume of shares traded on a daily basis. Longer term, more informed, investors tend not to trade their shares.

The above is just my take on the situation based on a few decades of investing.

My earnest hope is that a buyer will soon emerge and pay a fair for the shares (550-600p?). There seems to me to be increasing risk involved in ownership:
* A poor result on N Eigg will be badly punished by the market, irrespective of the fact it won't have cost SQZ much
* If there's a successful result, significant cash will have to be set aside for development
* gas prices are forecast to remain high but the situation is volatile for all kinds of reasons
* "Iran" is never far from my thinking even though it's hard to see how the joint owners of Rhum could foul up the situation

I could go on. Regardless of everything, todays failure of the SP to make any sort of recovery defies logic. I'm with NkOTB in defining the situation as "insane".

all imo/dyor

..............countless millions to add to the c.40m Swindells (by name and by nature) and Nunn each hold? Plus a few million each for a few other deserving execs and non-execs alike, maybe? The trough is being filled as details of the sensational open offer hit the press........

oink, oink..............

imo/dyor

...........you've had a very busy engagement, Jim.

:-)

"How can you grow the economy???"...........

...........same as you grow vegetables. There are millions of them in the UK, all with their mouths open, demanding money to pay their food and fuel bills, otherwise they might not have enough for the latest iphones, Sky subscriptions, holidays, gambling, take-aways etc.

I hasten to add by no means everyone falls into this category . Help is undoubtedly needed in many cases to enable those genuinely unable to make ends meet to get through these difficult economic times. But £150bn??? Do additional energy costs actually come to this, or have we turned a new corner and from now on will the Govt be expected to put food on voters' tables and pay whetver else the electorate for some bizarre reason think they're "entitled to".

Seems to me we're very nearly at the end of the latest 200 year cycle:

"A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship.
The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of history has been about 200 years. During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence:
From bondage to spiritual faith;
From spiritual faith to great courage;
From courage to liberty;
From liberty to abundance;
From abundance to complacency;
From complacency to apathy;
From apathy to dependence;
From dependence back into bondage."

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/108530-a-democracy-cannot-exist-as-a-permanent-form-of-government

Just passing the time. How many times have we said: "not long now"?

Wolf, wolf ...................

GLAL

DYOR

I agree with much of what you say, chinch. The way SQZ's directors have represented our company during this unusual period is notable. The panic evident in potentially having to cede full control of all that money - thus making it that much more difficult to help themselves to millions of pounds of our money - was there in spades. Not to enter into serious dialogue on a potential transaction that might well have been of benefit to both parties smacked to me of a sense of entitlement and enlightened self-interest in equal measure.

Expect the gravy train to continue - worst of all with a decision being made to use a pile of our cash to buy SQZ shares in the market, which seldom seems to benefit the share price, but doesn't half reduce cash balances.

I'll be voting againt the re-appointment of the 3 senior exec directors when the next accounts are up for approval. Better candidates are out there. Alternatively, if a few others feel as strrongly as I and some others evidently do about our directors' greed and arrogance when it comes to the custody of our money, it only takes 5% to call a GM. The resolutions put forward might not be approved but it would certainly send out a strong message.

dyor