Member Info for dickupham

Phew

.........it's all explained in the link, Alibro.
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/rafauo/

One can take pity; he must have been sitting at the back when the brain cells were dished out
:-)

..........I'll have another go at what I wrote earlier. Had my monthly jab yesterday and it invariably causes delirium: plus ca change.

............"This is presently valued by the market (ie people like you) at about £40m. There are 33m shares in issue. I make that about 121p - say 163 cents - a barrel, when the full estimated cost of getting the oil to the surface - running costs and capital costs combined - ie OPEX and CAPEX - is $30 pb, leaving a margin (with BC at $100pb) to split between a company perhaps interested in acquiring JOG and JOG's shareholders of $70pb - or c.$6bn each (if only one other party were to be involved on 50/50 terms. I'm just speculating (which can be dangerous). Apply all the discounts and the numbers soon reduce but what would be left would be very significant indeed"

We all know that when Rockflow came up with its NPV10 numbers, the oil price they were working with was $62.5 pb and I've already referred to the other discounts that were applied when it came up with the numbers it did back in the day. AB made open reference at one point to GBA producing cash flow over its lifetime of $6bn - that was when BC was a lot lower than today's $100, with many pundits now saying it's set to stay there for some time to come and could well go higher.

What all this points towards is that JOG has a major opportunity to strike a very favourable deal with a farminee. I and a few others have always thought an outright sale would be a preferable and I stick with this. The numbers would be eye-watering. I've been around since the outset (and 2 or 3 years before that with TRAP) and for me it's time to move on.

As ever it's all in the future (hopefully the near future) and there's always risk in this sector - nothing can be taken for granted. But I wouldn't be a seller in present circumstances.

Apologies again for making a balls of the numbers in my 08.24 post

Watch this space.................

dyor

............I missed out a cent there somewhere in the value presently attributed to JOG's 2C discovered resources - not that it matter much in the overall scheme of things. Mea culpa.......

Common sense comes into everything, Johnny B. It suggests to me you're a d/head, for instance. There's nothing wrong with the track record of the team that delivered shareholders in Ithaca substantial rewards not that long ago. People like you have no idea whatsoever about things that are reasonably straightforward to understand - eg what constitutes value and what doesn't. JOG has 170m barrels of discovered oil in one of the best UK postcodes. This is presently valued by the market (ie people like you) at about £40m. There are 33m shares in issue. I make that about 23p - say 30 cents - a barrel, when the full estimated cost of getting the oil to the surface - running costs and capital costs combined - ie OPEX and CAPEX - is $30 pb, leaving a margin (with BC at $100pb) to split between a company perhaps interested in acquiring JOG and JOG's shareholders of $35pb - or $6bn . I haven't factored in JOG's prospective resources but they'll have a value based on promising assessments to date.

The above can be broadly reconciled with Rockflow resources estimates of NPV (they apply a compound discount rate for risk (30% - industry standard) and a further 10% (ditto), plus a further 2% for the cost of money.

The oil in GBA isn't going to stay below the surface for long nor, in my view, will it be long before an announcement is made regarding GBA's future. Exactly what any announcement that's made will entail is impossible for us to predict. But my bet is that it won't do the share price any harm.

I'd nick off and trash some other company that's on your radar if I were you, Johnny B. You've already made a fool of yourself on here.

GL
dyor

"Brent crude futures settled 1.2% lower at $97.93 per barrel on Friday, after rising to above $105 for the first time since 2014 in the previous session as investors gauged how the Russia-Ukraine crisis will affect fuel supply. President Biden said Thursday the US will work with other major consuming nations on the release of a coordinated reserve. Considering the full week, oil prices are up 4.7% as investors fretted over the prospects of supply disruptions due to financial sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, US crude stockpiles continued to slide at Cushing, Oklahoma, approaching critical levels which could spur further oil run-ups"................

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil

......for all the kind comments, which I really appreciate. You're a thoroughly decent lot and deserve a good result here for being so. I had a really enjoyable day - a couple of pals and their bosses - sorry, wives - round for lunch. My next target (after JOG delivers a result) is to get to 72 (am I your senior, MPO818, or is it the other way around?). This time last year I wouldn't have given much for my chances, but thankfully there's more cause for optimism now (or at least there was 3 months ago, when I was last tested - I have the next 3 monthly blood tests next week, so fingers crossed).

Back to JOG, well done on your successful prediction of BC reaching $100, PC01 - I'm recommending JOG appoint you as "visionary director". It'll be coupled with the suggestion vampire kitten (where is he?) is appointed "sexual director" (when they want his f***ing advice they'll ask for it.

I'm starting to get seriously interested in what's likely (imv) to be going on behind the scenes. Ordinarily we'd have had some kind of year end update by now. But we haven't. To me, this might be a pointer towards news being due soon which would have made an update in the meantime potentially damaging. I'm just surmising.

I rounded my holding up earlier today (5k shares @139.3p) and added the same to my wife's SIPP at the same price. Hopefully no-one will tell her or I'm in trouble. She's extremely risk averse. If I'm found out I plan to tell her I was having a funny turn and can't remember anything because being 71 had a profound effect on me. I'll go on to claim I don't know her sign-in details anyway. Imv denial beats hope as a trading strategy in some instances. I hope denial won't be necessary in this particular instance.

Not long now - hopefully.

GLAL
dyor

Please stop being melodramatic, Abatt !! A deal will be done alright - it's just a question of when; and of course what the terms are

Striking a deal involving billions of pounds that is intended to last for three decades or more - particularly when the ground is constantly shifting and there are multiple options, preferences and conditions being forward by different interested parties is no easy thing. Reading what some on here give us their valuable opinion on, anyone would think they are world experts when the reality they'd probably have difficulty running a sweet shop successfully.

I'm firmly convinced a good deal will emerge here before too long. How long "before too long" means is guesswork. The NKOTB have been on board for 3 months as of today. Certain progress must have been made by the former team (of which AB and LT remain in situ).

I'll optimistically put forward the view we'll have news within the next month but I'm secretly hopeful it'll be sooner. There - I've stuck my neck out. Alternative views always welcome - we could do with a bit of cheerful banter for a change. People have become miserable. What is there to be miserable about? We haven't been told anything is amiss. Glasses half full please - it's a better state pf affairs.

It's my birthday tomorrow - yippee. Now there's something to look forward to..................

dyor

.......how long it's reasonable to give them to achieve what the previous team couldn't in a much longer timescale is anyone's guess..........

.............asking what year Abatt had in mind was an attempt at humour, Rollo. Clearly it failed.

All I know is that It's all gone on for too long and there have been too many disappointments. The new team have been on board for 3 months, but how long it's reasonable to achieve what the previous team couldn't in a much longer timescale is anyone's guess. There are so many ways a deal could be structured, given all the variables.

Nothing serious was going on when the new Ithaca blood arrived, otherwise the 500k options couldn't have been awarded. I guess to come up with a deal that adds real shareholder value by the end of Q1 would be a good performance. As I say, it's all just guesswork.

My crystal ball was damaged by Eunice earlier, so I can't really offer any more.

GL

.........what year are you talking about, abatt?

........don't hold your breath, flex :-)

...........can you explain why you think £18m has been taken out of the company, muckle?

Eagerly awaiting your response...............

:-)

correction:

Whether or not the market chooses to recognise that value (demand consistently outstripping supply for a while would be required for this to happen) is another matter.................

poortiming - Arden's 700p target is based on JOG farming out 30% of the GBA assets. Arden's unrisked value per JOG share is 1740p, which they then discount by 50% to arrive at a risked value per share of 870p, which they then discount further to get to their "target" price of 700p.

Finger in the air stuff if you ask me. If there's widespread interest in what JOG has to offer there should be a deal that reflects fair value, which is imv some way higher than Arden and the other brokers get to. Whether or not the market chooses to recognise that value (demand consistently outstripping supply for a while would be required for this to happen).

I sincerely hope (there's that word again) AB and JOG's PR people spell out plainly when the RNS is released one fine day at 07.00 hrs what the deal means to JOG and what JOG's expert advisers believe JOG's shares should be worth. I'm fed up to the back teeth with getting out of bed on a daily basis earlier than I otherwise would, just to to confirm nothing continues to be announced.

I know I keep saying it, but SOMETHING has to be announced soon. I don't imagine for a minute anyone in JOG is doing anything other than working their butts off to get a good deal across the line. Farming out 50% or whatever was never going to be easy because there have been and still are so many moving parts. The issues are bound to be super-complex and top negotiating skills are required to deliver implicit value . I'm backing the team to deliver. Not quite sure when, but soon.

Patience continues to be needed.....

GLAL

good not goof !!

Goof find, troughsnout:
"Serica would make a nice tuck-in acquisition, highly accretive on pretty much all metrics even with a 40%+ bid premium, and with the potential to offer “stealth” deleveraging for the acquiror given the extent of the cash generation at Serica is not well documented"..........

................says it all

dyor

You're way off the mark thinking JOG will retain only 18% of this one, Oil838. Did you apply for an (other?) identity just to treat us all to this little nugget of information, previously rattling around in the emptiness of your head?

I got the arithmetic bit - very clever. With Brent Crude at $93, fully funded producing interests would be expected to go for a site more than $15pb.

1 out of 10 overall. Don't call us - someone will rattle a bag of peanuts if your further input is required.

all imo - dyor

https://www.investegate.co.uk/i3-energy-plc--i3e-/rns/monthly-dividend/202202030700045372A/

I'm determined to beat the censors:

Matthew Hanpe.nis