Member Info for Dicko80

Multiple zones of interest from 339 to 1435 metres TVD MD

· Rigless well test planned for 43 metre gross interval in Moulouya Fan

· Ma Sand gas trap potentially could cover 58km²

Ma and TGB-6 sand interval

Within the interval from 815 to 895 metres TVD MD five potential sands with gas shows were encountered. Individual sands have a maximum thickness of 3 metres giving an estimated cumulative thickness of 11.5 metres versus a P10 pre-drill forecast sand thickness of 10 metres.

plus need to add in the shallower zones

.............

mou fab was expected P50 @ 19m

its 43m !

Upside !

...........

Ma Sand gas trap potentially could cover 58km² !!

P10 !!

Within the interval from 815 to 895 metres TVD MD five potential sands with gas shows were encountered. Individual sands have a maximum thickness of 3 metres giving an estimated cumulative thickness of 11.5 metres versus a P10 pre-drill forecast sand thickness of 10 metres

Hi Matt

ref testing MOU 1... not sure TBH

if we have multiple zones with pay, do we think MOU 1 will be tested ?

makes sense not to IMO

Makes more sense to utilise the funds to complete MOU 2

gas cloud

seal

sweet spot

thick sands

probably 3 days to drill ? c$300k if $100k pd rate

then test MOU 2 after MOU 3

whilst MOU 4 being drilled

Hi James

from what we know already, its very likely CNG operation is commercially viable

Guercif is equivalent of 60 North sea blocks

we have multiple follow on prospects as referred to in the data room

the current drill is appraisal of the MOU fan which already has contingent resources and as my earlier post just a small amount of these resources currently priced in

that's before you even look at the shallower targets previously announce or further upside from TGB6/TGB4 sands..

then BIG blue sky drill next...

highly pressurised sands, likely to produce very good flow rates, very good IRR especially as onshore, low costs $3m a well...

"golden tickets"

FOMO Friday

BIG blue day

Just 12BCF currently priced in for CNG, we could potentially be looking at 1TCF, over 80 times what's priced in

Then blue sky drill next 126skqm , 200m reservoir, all Additional to 1TCF

Tickets tickets get your golden tickets

Just following on from GRH post

Nearby basin flowed @ 1mmcfd from just a 1m sand

Mou 3 we are expecting thicker sands

We already have 11m and also a thinner sand above this

We are targeting a further 6sands with P50 of 24m for middle sands and 19m forMOU fan

On this basis we could have 50m +sands ..

Over pressured

Using the same flow rates as nearby basin that's over

50mmcfd

50 x * 16 * 365 days =

$292 m gross revenues from CNG operation

Prd 75%

That's one well @ just $3m a pop

Once in a lifetime opportunity

O8021 Jun '23 - 05:20 - 3573 of 3573 Edit

0 0 0

Guercif is the equivalent of 60 North sea blocks

We have a data room full of follow on prospects

We are only just scratching the surface

The potential for the full licence area is simply huge, massive

I expect success at MOU 3 will generate lots of enquiries and we know PG has stated $150-200m per 40 BCF

Yes due to industry interest

"Strategic objective to demonstrate a potential gas field production profile of between 150 to 250 mm cfgpd

 In response to industry interest in respect of the Guercif gas opportunity based on latest operation update

. Industry interest in any future participation in the Guercif gas project has referenced an EXPORT option to Europe should Guercif gas resources be proved up more quickly by additional drilling.

The Company believes that a target gas production profile of 150 to 250 mm cfgpd will be required in order to create the potential for winter-focussed gas sales of surplus Moroccan gas into the European market. The MOU-1 and MOU-2 structure is in close proximity to the Mahgreb gas pipeline (less than 5 kilometres away) creating the infrastructure link to a potential European gas market. As a licence operator the Company has rights of access to the Maghreb Gas Pipeline subject to regulatory approval. A potential tie-in access point is within the Company's licence area.

To address this additional export option the MOU-1 and MOU-2 testing programmes are being expanded to include all potential gas reservoirs in the wells to maximise gas deliverabilities. This involves some additional costs in equipment and for extra operational days. The costs are justified by creating an opportunity to demonstrate the ability to quickly scale up gas production to embrace both a domestic market and a larger export gas markets. This is an incremental near-term strategic objective"

295BCF for gas to power was £1.45 per share

135BCF CNG £2.67 per share

Page 4

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/09/Proactive-Presentation-Final-8-September-2022-LATEST.pdf

Im optimistic we good be in for a real BIG payday here

The sands targeted in MOU3

TGB6 present in MOU1

TGB4 amplitude anolomy mou 2

TGB2 MOU Fan

If we get lucky and they all come in looking at 1TCF+

That's pushing $5bn NPv10 CNG current mkt cap £42m

Then it will be of interest to gas to power

But if we do get lucky with all sands charged

It sets up the blue sky drill next ,..

Huge

Sheer size of the prize will re rate the shares massively

Not long now

Very small percentage of the contingent resources is priced in

this is an appraisal well...

needs to re rate

we are currently at "arrival drinks"

with the windfall tax issues in the north sea..

Morocco offers a once in a lifetime opportunity to us

onshore low operating costs

no tax for the first 10 years

5% royalty after 10bcf

Stop ramping Keith 🤣

Thanks for this, not sure why I added in the 75% interest , thanks for pointing it out , more upside 🤣

GL to all invested 🤞

Evening all

just thought i'd run through the numbers to where we currently stand just in case RNS tomorrow

Morocco CNG US$4.84 million/BCF @10% NPV (Management estimate)

PAGE 6

MOU-3 (June 2023) will appraise MOU 1 gas find, to firm up thicker sands, CONTINGENT 295BCF

295 x $4.84 = $1427.80 x 0.8FX =

£1142m x 75% Interest = £856.60m

mkt cap £36m / £856.6

4.2% or 12BCF of the contingent resources

this is just for the MOU fan (TGB2 SANDS)

so plenty of upside if MOU fan is confirmed with 19m sand and more if higher

the shallower targets announced last week are additional , not priced in

MOU1 TGB6 sands/shallower target potential additional , not priced in

MOU3 also targeting additional upside

TGB6

TGB4

K sand

potential of net prospective resources 320bcf, not priced in

also noting that 66% RF was used in these contingent and prospective resources, but the nearby RB is 90% RF

and also the net to gross thickness is also been used from MOU1 as guide so upside here too, with better net to gross expected..

once MOU 3 is drilled and tested...

MOU 4 to be drilled with huge upside potential with the massive jurassic @ 126sqkm but also appraisal drilling of the MOU fan with thicker sands expected , better flow rates

so as it stands...

still not much priced in..

i make it around 4% of contingent resources

Thanks Keith

Seismic section page 13 for those who haven't seen this

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/05/Proactive-Presentation-18-May-2023-FINAL.pdf

Key risks for the jurassic was migration and reservoir quality As noted on page 13above

As per interim drilling update last week

"Migration pathways can now be identified on seismic based on the early MOU-3 drilling results.

Six targets, including the Moulouya Fan primary objective, below the 95/8" casing depth at 778.5 metres TVD MD are potentially in contact with the gas migration pathway to the shallow overpressured gas.

The potential gas migration pathway into the primary target in the MOU-4 structure could be proportionately de-risked."

💰💰💰

Hey firefly

assets look good, but like every explorer they need the funds to explore to prove up a commercial discovery

there is a note in the RNS thats states they are looking for funding

Can't see it myself

But ATN do need funding

Hi Jimmy

these are additional sands , at shallower depths than mou1 TGB6 sand

drilling ahead into this next..

please see below

Prior to setting 95/8" casing an inflow of gas into the well was experienced.

A substantial drilling break from 339 to 350 metres TVD KB was identified as the source of the gas. This correlated with an 11 metre-thick, unconsolidated, good quality sand with elevated background gas readings.

Mud weight was gradually increased to 1.25 S.G., above that required to balance hydrostatic pressure. to reduce the inflow of gas into the well. This gas zone is therefore significantly overpressured (122 psi overpressured) and likely to be supported by connectivity to gas volume to provide pressure support.

A second thin sand with a 2.42% formation gas show was encountered at 750 metres TVD MD.

The Company's experienced management team safely set 95/8" casing at 764 metres TVD MD to protect the two new gas horizons, including the overpressured interval, that were not anticipated pre-drill based on offset wells MOU-1 and MOU-2. This was a difficult and challenging exercise for the drilling team but was achieved safely and without incident.

Technical update

The unexpected overpressured shallow gas occurs within a structural closure of up to 6 km²

mapped for the next drilling targets the Ma and TGB-6 horizons below the 95/8" casing depth of 778.5 metres TVD MD. The 11 metre-thick overpressured gas interval is thicker than the sand thickness used for these intervals to estimate gas-in-place in a success case. 19 metres of net sand is the P50 thickness used to estimate gas-in-place for the Moulouya Fan primary objective in a success case.

BOOM 💥

So much upside just on the appraisal part of the drill

but further upside from the other potential targets in this drill

important to underside MOU2 and they weren't targeting those sands in that well

full details on page 5 of 14

TGB-6 Sand as forecast

Tight thinner sands compared to MOU-1 as predicted pre-drill

No closure as forecast

✓ TGB -4 Sand not developed as forecast.

Confirms updip seal for TGB3 and TGB 4 objectives to the NW

✓ Top Moulouya Fan as forecast

❖ Unexpected 240+ metres of slumped deposits – very effective seal

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/01/Drilling-Update-MOU-2-01-February-2023-final-29012023.2317pm.pdf

then page 13 of 14 to understand MOU 3 and the targets

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/01/Drilling-Update-MOU-2-01-February-2023-final-29012023.2317pm.pdf

*To test 3 separately-sealed sand intervals

in Moulouya Fan*

*Test for presence of TGB-4 Sand updip seal confirmed by MOU-1 and MOU-2*

TGB4 formerly MOU2 (amplitude anomaly)

TGB-6 Sand, (present in MOU1)

Possible Sand K

Hi gg

they covered this in the feb presentation

please see page 10 of 14

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/01/Drilling-Update-MOU-2-01-February-2023-final-29012023.2317pm.pdf

I was thinking around 6 days to reach TGB6 sand so maybe some point today

early next week for TGB4

c12 days or so to reach MOU fan

TD c15 days

as it stands with a mkt cap of c£25m,

we are currently valued on Net 6.5BCF contingent resources for MOU fan only

295 x $4.84CNG op = $1427.80 x 0.8FX =

£1142m

£25m/£1142

2.19%

295BCF x 2.19% = 6.46BCF

Obviously there are other variables to consider offering further upside

recovery rates 66% used , nearby RB 90% RF

thicker sands increase from P50 to P10

additional resources -

current well MOU3 also assessing the potential -

TGB6 (present in MOU1)

TGB4 sand (Updip seal confirmed by MOU1 & 2, amplitude anomaly PAGE 13

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/01/Drilling-Update-MOU-2-01-February-2023-final-29012023.2317pm.pdf)

upside estimated 320BCF net

320 x $4.84CNG op = $1548.80 x 0.8FX =

£1239.04m

whilst MOU-4 Next drill after MOU 3(July 2023)

will again appraise the MOU fan for thicker sands

but also test Jurassic “blue sky” 126km² structure (minor gas shows in 1979 offset well).

PAGE 4

Phillips 1979TAFR-1X offset well analogous target 50 kms to SE Pre-drill Phillips estimated one billion barrels recoverable for 30km² structure Found minor gas shows in poor reservoir

PAGE 13

1billion bbl recoverable based on 30km structure

The sheer size and potential of the "prize" once announced via new CPR and success at MOU 3 will increase the mkt cap accordingly

for illustration purposes..

126sqkm / 30 = x 4.2

1 bbn x 4.2 = 4.2billion bbls recoverable or if gas charged multi TCF potential

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/05/Proactive-Presentation-18-May-2023-FINAL.pdf

*Morocco CNG US$4.84 million/BCF @10% NPV (Management estimate)

PAGE 6

On the face of it its a really good deal for CRCL

I don't know the history behind APEX and why they needed to sell so cheaply

As always with these plays its about fundingto drill and prove up for value creation

Plus points

Oil is already confirmed

Onshore not offshore, so not as expensive to drill a well

Once confirmed via appraisal drilling and flow tested, likely to be worth $6 per bbl

Costs

$1m to start

Might have to shoot seismic

Firm Upwell locations

Drill a well $5m

Expect a farm down by CRCL