Member Info for Dicko80

Few elephants in the room

3D - costly specially for a minnow like TRP, but not just 1, looking at acquiring 2 - SA & Namibia

Cameroon - II - placing floor was 0.10p, but now recent placing was 0.05, expect their terms to be aligned

Finance still o/s for Cameroon via Bank

Court case - TRP initially won the court case against Geoquip but then they appealed and won, TRP ordered to pay $1.6m, TRP are appealing

Hi gg

with MOU4 being completed in c9days and budget cost of $3m per well based on 20 days, you'd think think we have saved a few quid..

then there is preferential rates for back to back drilling...

Sounds like the Gharb basin for CHAR

Page9 onwards

https://hydrocarbons.onhym.com/sites/all/themes/hydrocarbure/images/pdf_onshore/Hydrocarbon%20Exploration%20Opportunities_Onshore.pdf

Current mkt cap £66m

CNG $4.84m NPV 10 per BCF

x 0.8 Fx gbp

£3.87

£66m mktcap/ 3.87 =

17BCF priced in

G2P £66/ 1.59 = 41.5BCF priced in

I personally estimate around 976BCF after MOU3

(Please do your own numbers)

So considerable upside just on the numbers

Nothing priced in for exploration upside, jurassic huge 126sqkm or any further prospects from the "data room"

Nothing priced in for T&T

Nothing priced in for Ireland

Nov 8th 2022

Gas sales and CNG financing agreements triggered by release of test results

· Corporate transaction to monetise shareholder value will be considered

Following initial discussions during this year with a number of parties it is anticipated that the Company will sign agreements shortly after the announcement of the MOU-2 test results with certain companies that it has prioritised for gas sales and an initial financing package for a simple Compressed Natural Gas ("CNG") pilot development. CNG is easily scalable, unlike a fixed pipeline development, and is attractive for developers of gas seeking a near-term increase in gas revenues.

We are please with the level of interest being generated within Morocco and amongst those groups seeking gas to address the rise in demand for secure new gas resources

The option to prudently finance further step-out drilling on the back of revenue generation from CNG sales is an attractive business development strategy. However MOU-2 and MOU-1 rigless testing could potentially confirm continuity of the Moulouya Fan over an area of 30km² to support a case for the higher end of the net contingent gas resources to the Company of 708 BCF, as defined in the independent SLR Consulting Ireland Ltd. ("SLR") Competent Persons Report ("CPR"), (February 2020 and January 2022 "MOU-4" updated). If this were the case the Company would not hesitate to initiate a corporate transaction to monetise shareholder value. In the current climate gas assets attract a significant premium as they can contribute to security of energy supply and the Energy Transition to help stabilise the near-term cost of energy."

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PRD/mou-2-well-preparations-pmp0ttqce6p22hb.html

Pre drill MOU3 - MOU fan sands 15 - 45m gross sands

came in at 50m gross

makes MOU2 all the more interesting now...

pre drill 120m gross sands...

1 in 10 chance of hitting 1000ft gas sands...

surely.....

with 2 types of mud in the stores...

surely....

with just c500m to drill....

we gonna penetrate that sweet spot 🍯

💦💰 🚀

Ouch

Ouch

Ahead of schedule

Well done PG & Lonny 👏

Appraisal and huge huge upside potential 🚀 🚀 💥 💥

Thanks Keith

Last bit of my post didn't copy over , apologises

"The Jurassic target covers an area of 126 km²and is interpreted by the Company to evaluate an interval drilled by Phillips in 1979 in the TAF-1X well, approximately 25 kilometres to the southeast of the proposed MOU-4 well location, within which there were minor gas shows. MOU-4 will test the potential for improved reservoir development and hydrocarbon charge in what may be a more favourable geological setting."

hTTps://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PRD/exercise-of-options-and-placing-of-shares-yjfedv8jex9a414.html

Be interesting to see the detail from the company on this

GL all

There has been much talk regarding TITANOSAURUS / MOU 4 / NE

Is it oil / gas / condensate to expect in the Jurassic ?

I think its important to note the well location isn't NE

page 12 bottom right - shows NE prospect

location is quite a distance away from the MOU 1 & 4 shown

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/09/29105657/Webinar-Presentation-website-Version-28092021-Corrections-15.40pm.pdf

actual location of MOU 4 / Titanosaurus

page 9

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/05/Proactive-Presentation-18-May-2023-FINAL.pdf

Also note here

page 22, top right

shows the base jurassic time map

also same page on the right hand side shows the opportunities where NE is clearly defined as an oil but Jurassic is 4 gas and oil leads

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/09/Proactive-Presentation-Final-8-September-2022-LATEST.pdf

The prospective gas fairway in the basin shows the gas pathway below their licence area before it rises up into Our licence

page 20

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/01/cpr2022.pdf

PG clearly new how prospective Guercif was , chasing it for many a year

"once in a lifetime opportunity"

Recap part # part 3

MOU-NE well will be targeting a gross reservoir sequence of approximately 200 metres within which the potential for good quality reservoir is increased due to its structurally elevated position relative to TRF-1.

MOU-NE is adjacent to the gas-generating basin defined by the MOU-1 well results.

Oil and gas shows are present on trend to the west of Guercif in the target reservoirs in the depleted Boudraa and Tselfat oil fields and in the DGR-1 and DGR-3 wells, demonstrating an active petroleum system to the west that will be tested by MOU-NE.

...........

TO SUMMARISE

current mkt cap £60m

vs

valuations

NPV10

G2P £1553.79m

CNG £3779.07m

With the free shot

"TITANOSAURUS"

A huge 126sqkm in size

targeting 200m reservoir

huge in size

huge in potential reservoir

huge huge in potential numbers..

PRD keeping it close, with no current numbers in the public domain ..

one of the key risks derisked..

offers blue sky upside

multi TCF/ Billion bbls +

..............

huge upside from current levels on what we know to date..

confirmation of size of the prize after flow tests will narrow the gap from mkt cap to NPV10

but off the scale potential with the near time drill

add in the tax benefits

all adds up to a

"once in a lifetime opportunity"

Recap #part2

industry interest

PG has made plenty references to Cove in presentations

Made many comments regarding industry interest

Confirmation of gas resources opens up a bidding War

"Strategic objective to demonstrate a potential gas field production profile of between 150 to 250 mm cfgpd

 In response to industry interest in respect of the Guercif gas opportunity based on latest operation update

. Industry interest in any future participation in the Guercif gas project has referenced an EXPORT option to Europe should Guercif gas resources be proved up more quickly by additional drilling.

The Company believes that a target gas production profile of 150 to 250 mm cfgpd will be required in order to create the potential for winter-focussed gas sales of surplus Moroccan gas into the European market. The MOU-1 and MOU-2 structure is in close proximity to the Mahgreb gas pipeline (less than 5 kilometres away) creating the infrastructure link to a potential European gas market. As a licence operator the Company has rights of access to the Maghreb Gas Pipeline subject to regulatory approval. A potential tie-in access point is within the Company's licence area.

To address this additional export option the MOU-1 and MOU-2 testing programmes are being expanded to include all potential gas reservoirs in the wells to maximise gas deliverabilities. This involves some additional costs in equipment and for extra operational days. The costs are justified by creating an opportunity to demonstrate the ability to quickly scale up gas production to embrace both a domestic market and a larger export gas markets. This is an incremental near-term strategic objective"

...........

MOU 4 (NE)

As per interim drilling update the other week

"Migration pathways can now be identified on seismic based on the early MOU-3 drilling results.

Six targets, including the Moulouya Fan primary objective, below the 95/8" casing depth at 778.5 metres TVD MD are potentially in contact with the gas migration pathway to the shallow overpressured gas.

The potential gas migration pathway into the primary target in the MOU-4 structure could be proportionately de-risked."

Seismic section page 13 for those who haven't seen this

hTTps://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/05/Proactive-Presentation-18-May-2023-FINAL.pdf

Key risks for the jurassic was migration and reservoir quality As noted on page 13above

.............

Background info on MOU 4

The MOU-NE drilling lead has now been mapped at the base of the forecast reservoir sequence with a structural closure covering 102 km².

The next step is to finalise a drilling location based on defining the highest point on the structure with the maximum potential for leached reservoir development (18 metres of reservoir were encountered approximately 2,200 metres downdip in well TRF-1 about 15 kms. to the southeast of the MOU-NE structure beneath a zone of gas s

Recap #part1

"In particular the Ma Sand potential has been enhanced over a wider area with the possibility of a larger gas trap being effectively sealed covering up to 58km². The shallow gas potential of MOU-3 has exceeded all pre-drill expectations."

pre drill - target was 320BCF P50

CNG $4.84NPV10 per BCF

G2P $1.99NPV10 per BCF

Page 6 for NPV10 figures

hTTps://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/05/Proactive-Presentation-18-May-2023-FINAL.pdf

376BCF x $1.99 = $748.24m x 0.8 =

£598.59m

...............

MOU FAN

MOU-3 (June 2023) will appraise MOU 1 gas find, to firm up thicker sands, CONTINGENT 295BCF P50 based on 19m sands in MOU fan, 43m confirmed

increase to 600BCF

600 x $1.99 = $1194 x 0.8 =

£955.20m

.......................

total

£598.59+ £955.2m =

£1553.79m G2P

............

CNG

376BCF x $4.84 = $1819.84m x 0.8 =

£1455.87m

600 x $4.84 = $2904 x 0.8 =

£2323.2m

.......................

total

£1455.87 + £2323.2m =

£3779.07m CNG

............

NPV10

G2P £1553.79m

CNG £3779.07m

Current mkt cap

just £60m

Morocco offers a once in a lifetime opportunity to us

onshore low operating costs

no tax for the first 10 years

5% royalty after 10bcf

............

those talking about flow testing

Nearby basin flowed @ 1mmcfd from just a 1m sand

Mou 3 we have 43m in the main fan, 11m in the shallow target, plus another 15m in the MA/TGB6 , plus 1m thin sands throughout mentioned..

On this basis we could have 70m +sands ..

thicker sands , flow better..

Over pressured sands in Guercif , likely to be very good flow rates..

she could be a gusher..

remember 50mmcfd would be $292m gross revenues from CNG ops

50 x * 16 * 365 days =

$292 m gross revenues from CNG operation

Prd 75%

That's one well @ just $3m a pop

...................

Guercif is the equivalent of 60 North sea blocks

We have a data room full of follow on prospects

We are only just scratching the surface

The potential for the full licence area is simply huge, massive

...........

Presentation ref Carbonate plays 6 years ago

Morocco around 35mins 40 secs

Jurassic & Guercif mentioned just before 39mins

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_X4u6rmOw6Y

Thanks Keith, comments noted and updated accordingly

revised figures based on G2P @ $1.99BCF for Corporate Transaction

Uniform thickness of 15m (it may be thicker or thinner)

* Area 58km² = 58,000,000m²

* Porosity 20% (likely to be better consolidated than MOU turbidites, so lower than the 25% assumed for them)

* 66% recoverability (imo on the low side, but this is what is assumed in the CPR & by FDC)

* 70% charge (CPR again)

* 75% attributable to PRD

* Gas expansion Factor of 86. Rule of thumb is lithostatic pressure is 1 psi for each 1ft of depth. 950m x 3.28 = 3116ft depth, plus 122psi overpressure = 1270psi. 1 Bar = 14.7psi. 1270/14.7 = 220Bar.

So, 15 x 58,000,000 x 0.2 x 0.66 x 0.7 x 0.75 x 220 = 13264020000 m³

1m³ = 35.3ft³ - near enough 376 BCF. Adjust the assumptions to come up with your own numbers.

RNS today

"In particular the Ma Sand potential has been enhanced over a wider area with the possibility of a larger gas trap being effectively sealed covering up to 58km². The shallow gas potential of MOU-3 has exceeded all pre-drill expectations."

pre drill - target was 320BCF P50

CNG $4.84 per BCF/G2P $1.99

376bcf x $1.99 = $748.24m x 0.8 =

£598.59m

MOU FAN

MOU-3 (June 2023) will appraise MOU 1 gas find, to firm up thicker sands, CONTINGENT 295BCF P50 based on 19m sands in MOU fan, 43m confirmed

increase to 600BCF

600 x $1.99 = $1194 x 0.8 =

£955.20m

total

£598.59+ £955.2m =

£1553.79m

MOU 4

Appraise MOU fan but also test "BLUE SKY" potential

TITANOSAURUS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Area 126km² = 126,000,000m²

* Porosity 25%

* 66% recoverability (imo on the low side, but this is what is assumed in the CPR & by FDC)

* 70% charge (CPR again)

* 75% attributable to PRD

* Gas expansion Factor of 150

So, 200 x 0.5 x 126,000,000 x 0.25 x 0.66 x 0.7 x 0.75 x 150 = 163,721,250,000 m³

1m³ = 35.3ft³ -

4.6 TCF net to PRD

4600 x $1.99 x 0.8 =

£7323.20m

Adjust the assumptions to come up with your own numbers

Ok so had a stab at the numbers for MA1/TGB6 , credit to Keithoz for the formula

shallow gas

Uniform thickness of 15m (it may be thicker or thinner)

* Area 58km² = 58,000,000m²

* Porosity 20% (likely to be better consolidated than MOU turbidites, so lower than the 25% assumed for them)

* 66% recoverability (imo on the low side, but this is what is assumed in the CPR & by FDC)

* 70% charge (CPR again)

* 75% attributable to PRD

* Gas expansion Factor of 86. Rule of thumb is lithostatic pressure is 1 psi for each 1ft of depth. 950m x 3.28 = 3116ft depth, plus 122psi overpressure = 1270psi. 1 Bar = 14.7psi. 1270/14.7 = 220Bar.

So, 15 x 58,000,000 x 0.2 x 0.66 x 0.7 x 0.75 x 220 = 13264020000 m³

1m³ = 35.3ft³ - near enough 376 BCF net to PRD

Adjust the assumptions to come up with your own numbers.

...........

RNS today

"In particular the Ma Sand potential has been enhanced over a wider area with the possibility of a larger gas trap being effectively sealed covering up to 58km². The shallow gas potential of MOU-3 has exceeded all pre-drill expectations."

pre drill - target was 320BCF P50

CNG $4.84 per BCF

376bcf x $4.84 = $1820m x 0.8 =

£1456m

...............

MOU FAN

MOU-3 (June 2023) will appraise MOU 1 gas find, to firm up thicker sands, CONTINGENT 295BCF P50 based on 19m sands in MOU fan

295 x $4.84 = $1427.80 x 0.8 =

£1142m

................

total

£1456 + £1142m =

£2598m

*43m Confirmed today, exceeding P50 19m , P10 ? further upside ..

.............

MOU 4

Appraise MOU fan but also test "BLUE SKY" potential

TITANOSAURUS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Area 126km² = 126,000,000m²

* Porosity 20% (likely to be better consolidated than MOU turbidites, so lower than the 25% assumed for them)

* 66% recoverability (imo on the low side, but this is what is assumed in the CPR & by FDC)

* 70% charge (CPR again)

* 75% attributable to PRD

* Gas expansion Factor of 86. Rule of thumb is lithostatic pressure is 1 psi for each 1ft of depth. 1500m x 3.28 = 4920ft depth, plus 122psi overpressure = 5042psi. 1 Bar = 14.7psi. 5042/14.7 = 343Bar.

So, 200 x 0.5 x 126,000,000 x 0.2 x 0.66 x 0.7 x 0.75 x 343 = 299,500,740,000 m³

1m³ = 35.3ft³ -

8.4 TCF net to PRD

Adjust the assumptions to come up with your own numbers

...............

*200m reservoir, not sure on the net to gross expectation assume 50%, so 100m used for the calculation..

Will PRD put a bit of meat on the bone in the potential numbers on RNS spud ??

Seems a bit of cat and mouse at play

Those talking about flow testing

Nearby basin flowed @ 1mmcfd from just a 1m sand

Mou 3 we have 43m in the main fan, 11m in the shallow target, plus another 15m in the MA/TGB6 , plus 1m thin sands throughout mentioned..

On this basis we could have 70m +sands ..

thicker sands , flow better..

Over pressured sands in Guercif , likely to be very good flow rates..

she could be a gusher..

remember 50mmcfd would be $292m gross revenues from CNG ops

50 x * 16 * 365 days =

$292 m gross revenues from CNG operation

Prd 75%

That's one well @ just $3m a pop

Once in a lifetime opportunity

So if the MOU fan was 19m P50 for an area of 30sqkm

and now we have additional ...

MA/TGB6 15m for an area of 58sqkm

just think about that