Member Info for Dicko80

i can confirm the pumps aren't a requirement for the JV

the JV timeline has been more to do with interested parties or the number of interested parties, each one needs time for initial meetings set up, each will have queries or RFI's, further meetings required, then further discussions / negotiations
this obviously takes time

but we know meetings took place in Feb in to areas of India with several interested parties including blue chip

but in a way...

it's a good thing as its not just 1 interested party ..

you only need 2 interested to create an auction

more than 2 even better...

tick up and buying pressure see us move out of the downtrend channel

confirmation of start of uptrend

great buying opp @ .1p

CCS licence award - No valuation at present only comments suggesting huge valuation creation event in time
Cambay JV - NPV10 $725M

£8m mkt cap

"Cairn Oil & Gas plans two-thirds of capital spend on near-term development opportunities"
What is your view on the Indian market? How different is it from the other markets that you have worked in? What are the challenges and opportunities? What is the demand expectation?

"Well, if you look at the Indian market
energy demand is growing very strongly and it relies heavily on imported oil and gas....... I think there's a great opportunity for us to grow our production base and continue to support India's energy demand looking forward. And the best supplier of oil and gases in India is oil and gas produced in India. And so that's our ambition"

Have you earmarked funds for acquisitions, both in India as well as outside?

"We will always look at acquisitions but my view is the best way to create value in the oil and gas business is through the subsurface and being successful in exploiting the resource base that we have, and the exploration. And so the number one priority is to maximise the value and opportunity, both for the government and people of India in the asset base that we have, but also for our shareholders. And if the right acquisition opportunity comes along that we can do it at the right price, and those are the sorts of things we will look at too"

Last year you signed contracts for about eight fields under the Discovered Small Fields auctions. What's the status there?

"We are studying those opportunities and we will move the ones forward that we can make happen. And I reviewed one yesterday. We have our Cambay field in Surat and one discovered small field, or two of them, actually sit near it. And we have plans to move the development of those forward, and we're starting the engineering work."

Have recently stated on record they are looking atbuying near term opportunities in India

What's even more interesting is last year Cairn signed contracts for a number of "discovered small fields" a couple of which are located in or near the Cambay field which they are currently progressing into development

Not sure why big firm like Cairn are moving forward with small fields in Camby unless of course there's a bigger picture, a potential near term opportunity that would complement these small fields , location- in Cambay for a much larger Cambay asset , multiple well producing large field

Any one know if there is a large proven Cambay field available that would be of interest to Cairn ?

"Cairn Oil & Gas plans two-thirds of capital spend on near-term development opportunities: "

"So I think a combination of investment in near, medium or longer-term asset growth opportunities is what will provide growth in our business."

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This asset is Offshore - well costs back in 2010 was just under $100m

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leviathan_gas_field

13 years what cost to drill there now ?

Yet they still happy to fork out $2bn for50%

I can't find NPV10 but obviously the high costs would affect the economics

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/adnoc-bp-bids-interest-israels-newmed-energy-2023-03-28/

Couple of issues/negatives with this share

Mkt cap valution vs PANR
Risk to find oil
Risk/negative no flow tests till next year

Even if they confirm oil the market wants to see flow
Test success after PANR issues to confirm commercial discovery

Mkt cap maybe £5m at present

But you need to factor in all the dilution due

Probably more like £12m mktcap

No issues with rig availability

Confirmation below from my contact with the compamy

Q - I noted in the recent RNS based on farm out discussions you are now planning ahead for 2 wells, how is the rig market there ?

A - There is rig availability for our planned new well program.

As per Rns they are already on with procuring services and plant for the initial 2 new wells

Krusty is right no shares have been placed at. 36p if they had it would have been announced

The issue for me is once the first tranche is placed which will be based on 5 day VWAP discounted by 8%, so based on recent sp action maybe first tranche will be announced next week at around .14p which needs to happen ASAP as...

there'a wait of 3 - 8 months before next tranche of shares

So to me, if this sits next to the bank loan for drilling

Drilling ain't happening anytime soon

"The Placing will initially raise US$1,250,000 as a placing to the Placee of new ordinary shares (with nominal value of 0.001p each) in the Company ("Shares") worth US$1,362,500. Following the initial placing, the Placee will invest, at the request of the Company, up to US$1,750,000 in the aggregate for Shares worth US$1,907,500 in the aggregate, no earlier than three months and no later than eight months after the initial placing (such period, the "Commitment Period", and collectively, such investments, the "Second Placing"). If required by the Company, a further US$3,000,000 may be raised from the Placee for Shares worth an equivalent amount, with the Placee's consent. Further information regarding the Placing is set out below"

Can't get out of a double dare

CCS news was end of March (next week)

Cambay coukd drop anyday

Quietly accumulating

Although 7m buy wasn't mine, anyone's?

Hi Gordon

each well is obviously different and will vary will the number of zones requiring fracking

C77H initially produced at 2mmscfd, so as you state the company has given guidance to 4mmscfd per well based on 16 zones , equivalent of 0.25mmsfd per zone..

so this basis C77h would be 100% increase

but there are wells with upto 24 zones, using the above would give 6mmsfd

like i have mentioned the planned next 2 wells are adjacent to C05 which initially flowed at 4mmsfd unfracked, drilled sub optimal

thanks Gordon, but please refer to the detail of my post ref the next 2 wells

my assumptions as stated are backed up and confirmed by page 17 on the presentation

https://www.synergiaenergy.com/sites/synergia-energy-ltd/files/documents/documents-downloads/20221213%20Shareholder%20Presentation%20ASX.pdf

Well planning for two new horizontal wells C-78H and C-79H has
been completed
The well locations have been determined by :
1. Structurally high
2. Adjacent to C-05 which tested up to 4.1 mmcfd and 170 bcpd
3. Close to faults to access natural fractures

as stated C05 flowed at 4.1mmsfd unfracked

as demonstrated by C77H fracking the zones have improved flow rates by c80%,
on that basis, once fracked the next 2 wells could flow upto 7.38mmsfd
but i was being conservative with my assumption @ 6mmsfd

also no consideration of improvement flow rates based on the new wells being drilled horizontally, all historic wells were drilled sub optimal , again my assumption conservative

but @ 6mmsfd would then able these 2 wells to be hooked up to the high pressure grid as previously stated..

and all follow on wells likewise can be added to the high pressure grid

with all the historic drilling and good quality 3D data its clear they have identified the best locations to maximise flow rates to kick start full field development , quickly ramp up production and generate high cashflow return and payback

thanks for the heads up Espenviking

"Synergia is offering an opportunity to participate in a farmout of no less than 50% of its interest in Cambay Field, State of Gujarat, onshore India. This is a significant and largely undeveloped tight gas resource play. Legacy facilities are already in-place and are sufficient to support incremental production from the proposed work program and future development activities. The proposed work program consists of drilling at least 10 new multifracture horizontal wells to increase production and exploit the 206 Bcf of P50 reserves."

https://www.moyesco.com/mandate/158

do the math...

o and don't forget the condensate ;-)

mkt cap £10m

Eagle

you are getting hung up on the pump... why ?

C77H is not about the pump..

but to prove up the commercial viability operational method of fracking to potential partners for full field development ..

let me elaborate ...

C-77H was partially depleted.
it’s been on intermittent production since 2014.
Prior to the re-frac, C-77H would flow for a few days and then the gas production would cease due to liquid loading. This means the condensate level in the well increased to the point where the back pressure on the fracs was enough to inhibit gas production.
Prior to the re-frac Shutting the well in for 4-5 days would allow the gas pressure to increase to the point where gas production could be resumed for a few days before the cycle was repeated.
Prior to the re-frac conclusions: the original 4 fracked zones were not effective enough to provide plateau production and Cambay wells need artificial lift (a pump) to remove fluids from the wellbore
After the re-frac: the 2 new fracked zones were proved the revised fracking methodology was effective and the new zones had sufficient energy to produce gas continuously despite the column of condensate in the well.

so SYN have taken a depleted well ... read that again ... depleted...

fracked it...

and successfully put it back on continuous gas production ... continuous ....

proving the methodology to potential partners on a depleted well is quite an achievement..

so what what about new wells ?

Initial plateau production rates for the 2 new zones was c. 0.25 mmsfd after the production tubing was installed in September 2022, or 0.125 mmscfd per zone. This is despite the liquid loading problem

the installation of the artificial lift pump will increase gas production to > 0.25 mmscfd per zone
New wells with 16 fracked zones should have an initial production rate of 4 mmscfd with artificial lift.

all 30 previous wells drilled on the licence were drilled vertically.

all new wells will be drilled horizontally giving much higher productivity and greater wellbore exposure

the next 2 wells C78/C79H make reference to being in the optimal ideal location, structurally high next to historic well C05 which tested at 4.1 mmcfd and 170 bcpd unfracked...

unfracked... 4.1mmcfd

fracked methodology has taken a depleted reservoir and now on continuous gas production ...

what will it produce over and above the 4.1mmcfd... x 2 nr wells
add in drilled horizontally not vertically..
0.125 per zone now expecting 0.25 per zone, that's an 80% increase
so 6mmcfd + per well is not out of the question.. x 2nr wells

remember high pressure grid rates were mentioned at $40 per mcf in the interview in October

6mmscfd = 1000 mcf per 1mmscfd

6000 mcf per day x 2 wells = 12000 mcfpd

12000 x $40mcf = $480,000 per day gross revenues

$480,000 x 30 days per month =

$14.4million gross revenues per month from 2 wells

full field development is 30 wells ?

do th

yes good time to buy

sellers out

bit of buying we know how quickly she moves

news on both fronts can't be far away ...

This week ?

a number of them round trades are mine

stakebuilding

good weekend to all

"They will also need more money, as per the official RNS and accounts just yesterday, they lost nearly £2,000,000 in 6 months June-December."

Eagle they fracked C77H @ a cost of just under £2m quid

so they didnt lose £2m it was spent on operations...

operations that took a depleted well and successfully put IT BACK into PRODUCTION on continuous gas flow..

Do you understand the scale of such success, proving the method of fracking on full field development ?