The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Https://www.slrconsulting.com/public-documents/cgg-algoa/
23rd November
Have we farmed out SA ?
Look at ORR yesterday
Did 70% on 2 HOT for relatively small farm outs
We await
Rig contract & 2 HOT for Cameroon as stated by Jeremy in the BRR interview last month
https://youtu.be/tCckFVp8dbI?si=Tjn6Jt1RhhTPNocP
When this happens
The 35mmbbl appraisal well will be all sygo
If we farm down to 50% that's 17.5mmbblnet
In the ground value
17.5x$3 per bbl
$52 5m mkt cap or
c£42m mkt cap
Drilling and confirming oil $6 per bbl
Successful flow test and booking reserves $10 per bbl
It's expected production to commence 6-9 months thereafter
Rampur g upto 16kbopd from 4 prodicing wells from the same platform
16,000 x$80 per bbl x365 days x 50%
$233.6m gross revenues to TRP
There's also further upside , multiple "free shots" into other reservoirs and structures
This you can buy for£2.5m mktcap today
If you cant see the investment case at these levels you need go back to school
net assets x12 mkt cap
thats before anything for Cameroon, Namibia, SA is factored in
plus 25% of GBP prospect that overlaps into our licence area c 175mmbbls
appraisal - confirmed contingent resources 35mmbbls
even in the ground value of these @ $3 per bbl
gives $105m mkt cap
add in prospective resources over 3billion
mkt cap £2m ?????????????????
Mkt cap £2.5m
Net assets £29m
Contingent resources 35mmbbls
Prospective resources across all 3 assets
3 billion bbls ?
The assets combination of appraisal and exploration are very good especially now xamerron and Namibia well understood
From an outside value proposition
It offers very good returns to acquire TRP
Buy at these levels
They only have the one asset so as I explained earlier the interest was only in the orange basin after the large oil discoveries, so progress there hasn't been any
But now the players are widening the search so there may be hope for them but I was highlighting TRP have another play if they do
All adds up for a lot in play for us
It actually mentions covid and the major on that link below
"As previously disclosed, Tower received an unsolicited approach from a Major oil company regarding its license PEL 96 in the second half of 2019. That company has told Tower that it remains interested in working on this project, but has not prioritised it during the first half of 2020, and we expect discussions to remain on the back burner in the second half of the year, or at least until the Covid-19 pandemic situation is clearer. This has not affected our own plans for the license, and we await with great interest the outcome of further work, such as Global's, and also further wells being drilled in Namibia, including Shell's well on license PEL 39 and Total's Venus well, all of which will enhance our own basin modelling and prospect evaluation.
Jeremy Asher, Tower's Chairman and CEO, commented:
"At present we are concentrating on getting our Cameroon farm-out finalised and preparing for Covid-19 conditions to permit us to resume well preparations at Thali, and we hope to update the market with further news about this shortly. But we are also continuing to work on our Namibian license. Even though most of the work is desk-based at this early stage of the Initial Exploration Period, it will be profoundly influenced by the insights we can gain from the physical exploration efforts of other parties, even in other basins in Namibia. We are especially interested in what Global is doing on PEL-94, and note that the amount of 3D data already obtained on the Welwitschia Deep prospect suggests that this might already be close to being drill-ready. If Global is able to drill an early well on PEL 94 targeting the Albian carbonates and Cretaceous turbidites, this would bring extremely valuable insight to Tower on the multiple structures and leads on our PEL 96, and if it is on Welwitschia Deep, then it might also bring an early discovery providing immediate reserves to our Company."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/namibia-update-1logv6rxg3ma4ms.html
Also we have another iron in the fire
if GBP do farm out and confirm commitment to drill
It overlaps our licence by 25%
"Tower has noted the announcement by Global Petroleum Ltd ("Global") of updated prospective resource estimates in respect of its license PEL 94, covering block 2011A which is immediately to the South of Tower's block 1911. Global estimates that its Welwitschia Deep Albian carbonate prospect has Best Estimate unrisked gross prospective resources of 671 million barrels of oil, with a geological chance of success of 17%. Global's estimate, classified in accordance with the Society of Petroleum Engineers' Petroleum Resources Management System, is based on a reinterpretation of existing 3D data which Global licensed from Namcor, taking into account recent well results in the area, and conducted by Global's consultant exploration manager who is also a principal of Energy Explorers Ltd.
Tower observes that this figure corresponds to the portion of the prospect on block 2011A, and notes that approximately 25% of the Welwitschia structure lies in block 1911, which is covered by Tower's license PEL 96. Although this proportion is an estimate made without the details of Global's detailed reinterpretation, it would imply that the total Best Estimate unrisked gross prospective resources of the Welwitschia Deep prospect's entire structure would be in the region of 895 million barrels. Of this, approximately 224 million barrels would lie in block 1911, of which approximately 179 million barrels would be attributable to Tower"
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/namibia-update-1logv6rxg3ma4ms.html
TRP mkt cap £2.5m
The poster is right to question 4 years has passed and why no farm out ..
The honest is covid came and the uncertainty there after the major parked it but left it open for further discussion, at that time it suited TRP as much work was required on the blocks to understand the basin modelling and leads, but after covid cleared and life became more back to normal , Namibia witnessed large oil finds , which then shifted focus to the Orange Basin but it was only a matter of time before the Majors looked elsewhere offshore Namibia and now the timing is perfect
Basin modelling complete
Clear demonstration of a working hydrocarbon system in the Licence area
Huge structures and leads with mapped migration pathways into the structures
Oil seeps mapped directly on top of the structures and leads
Clear DHIs
So once the new prospective resources are calculated we will have a very good understanding what's in our very large licence area
We were approached by a major in late 2019 just before covid for our blocks in Namibia
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/namibia-update-ped9qgjh2h7gfb5.html
sure
the presentation by trp was very well represented by big industry players
the detail analysis and substantial by duncan demonstrating a live hydrocarbon system in pel 96 backed up by dhi's with 180 - 260 billion bbls potential warmed the ****les of the audience so much so they came over for a chat 😉
This is the real exciting one
Namibia
This was thought to be a work in progress...
but now interest has taken over and TRP have had to show their hand recently showcasing PEL 96 at AEW
The farmout presentation was very well attended Dr Mello (the former upstream boss at Petrobras and HRT who is still regarded as one of the global experts on Namibia) applauded Duncan, and we also had very positive direct feedback from both Exxon and ENI.
The Namibia sessions were very well attended and there is evidently a lot of interest now in areas beyond the Orange Basin
if you look on the link, top row 2nd left - Namibia PEL 96
https://www.linkedin.com/search/results/content/?heroEntityKey=urn%3Ali%3Afsd_profile%3AACoAAAV-0VAB1lkJ_pTRnGloXxTLQ1qHvwQJjfc&keywords=matt%20tyrrell&mentionsMember=%5B%22ACoAAAV-0VAB1lkJ_pTRnGloXxTLQ1qHvwQJjfc%22%5D&origin=CLUSTER_EXPANSION&position=0&searchId=979889b8-d998-40f6-b276-48d4b6ab2201&sid=_rJ
https://youtu.be/9l1RyD5Sjqo
https://www.towerresources.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Namibia-offshore-understanding-the-petroleum-system-in-the-Walvis-Basin-AEW-Oct-2023-final.pdf
slide 9
Biggest prospect alpha
56 billion bbls
slide 12
total 180 - 260 billion bbls !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"The main oil seeps that have higher repeatability are recognised adjacent to the Dolphin Graben and are located above existing prospects and along the main migration pathways verified by Tower’s recent basin modelling work"
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/duncan-rushworth-44b3415_namibia-walvis-oilseeps-activity-7125770416555483136-aBDw?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
https://www.towerresources.co.uk/operations/namibia/
TRP £2.5m mkt cap